Two of six in a sloppy, ugly Week 1 but with one of those two hits coming on a +200 teaser, I came up about even. Not bad for the first edition of the Pick 6 but we can do much better. Onward and upward, my friends.
Here are my six favorite plays for Week 2 in the NFL and, yes, we’re starting things off with the Thursday nighter in Cincinnati.
The Pick: Texans +6 and UNDER 38 Parlay (+270)
The Stat: Marvin Lewis is 8-22 SU for his career in prime-time games, the Bengals scored exactly zero points in Week 1 and neither team has scored more than 22 points in their last four meetings.
I don't like including a TNF game here but this is my favorite play on the Week 2 board. The Bengals were hilariously bad at home in Week 1 and I’m not convinced they’ll be much better in Week 2. Sure, the Texans are starting a rookie quarterback on the road on a short week but I don’t think the Bengals score enough points for that to matter. Plus, it’s Deshaun Watson’s birthday.
Thursday’s game is going to be bad but like a car wreck, it could be difficult to look away. The Texans D is going to wreak havoc in Andy Dalton’s backfield all night long and I think he coughs up some easy Houston points.
The Texans should win straight up but the UNDER looks like an absolute lock. I’ll take those six points to the bank and laugh all the way there.
The Pick: Colts +7.5
The Stat: The Colts are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a loss.
Correct, all of those wins were with Andrew Luck at the helm and Scott Tolzien is a rocket fuel-propelled dumpster fire but did you see the Cardinals play last week? Wow, is Carson Palmer bad, and he’s not getting any better on the wrong side of 35.
Arizona will also be down David Johnson for the contest after he suffered a dislocated wrist against the Lions. This will force Bruce Arians to throw the ball more than he’s comfortable doing with Palmer under center and it’s possible Indy gets a few freebies.
Also, Coach Pagano has his keister directly on the hot seat as well and if he’s embarrassed by the Cards in Week 2, he could find himself in need of work.
This is going to be an unwatchable trash game so I don’t blame you if you don’t want to bet it.
The Pick: 7-point teaser with Saints +14, Vikings +13, Bears +14, Chargers +3.5
The Stats: The Saints are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of seven points or less, the Vikings are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games in the early afternoon, the Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games at home and Jay Cutler’s teams are 3-6-1 ATS when he’s played his first game of the season.
Another little seven-point teaser for you loyal Pick 6ers after we cashed out our four-teamer last week and I think I like this one better. The Saints love the back-door cover, the Vikings looked incredible in Week 1 and neither the Buccaneers or Dolphins have played yet after their opener was washed out by hurricane Irma.
Last week’s games were UGLY with everyone still settling in and it’s possible the Bucs and ’Phins experience similar growing pains on Sunday.
The pick: 49ers +14
The Stat: Four of the five biggest underdogs came through against the spread in Week 1.
Fourteen points is a lot of points to cover for a Seahawks team that I don’t think can score a lot of points. This is mainly a public fade as over 65 percent of those betting against Vegas like the Dirty Birds of the West in this one but it also has a lot to do with how bad Seattle’s offensive line was in Week 1.
Russell Wilson – under duress – managed just nine points against the Packers’ 22nd-best defense from a season ago and he was sacked three times. The ’Hawks win this but not by two full touchdowns.
The Pick: Broncos SU +115
The Stat: In the last five years, the Broncos are 3-2 SU as home underdogs and they’re on a five-game winning streak against the Cowboys.
The public is drinking the Cowboys Kool-Aid but I’m not sold. Denver is a tough team to beat at Mile High and I don’t understand why they’re underdogs. This game is a pick’em at most and I like the Broncos to pull out a straight-up win.
C.J. Anderson and Trevor Siemian both looked good in Week 1 so if the Broncos D can bend but not break against Ezekiel Elliott, I expect those two to be able to do just enough in a game that feels like it’s going to be a grinder.
The Pick: Packers vs Falcons OVER 53
The Stat: The total went OVER in both of the Packers’ games and all five of the Falcons’ last year that closed with a number of 50 or higher.
In what is projecting as a Sunday night shootout, the public is fairly torn on what they expect from the Falcons in their first game at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. I know what I expect and it’s points – a lot of them.
The two teams have combined for an average of over 70 points in their last three meetings and last season alone they had a combined OVER/UNDER record of 16-1 when playing in domes. The OVER is an easy play in Atlanta no matter what the number is.
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