Another week of NFL means there’s more money to be made. I’ve once again done a deep dive on this week’s nice-looking board and surfaced with my favorite six plays.
I previewed the Thursday nighter earlier this week so that’s as natural a place to start as any.
The Pick: Eagles +9 and OVER 38.5 Thursday Night Teaser (-120)
The Stat: The Panthers’ only loss this season came when they allowed over 100 rushing yards and the Eagles are averaging 138.8 yards on the ground per game this season.
Philly’s offense has really impressed me the last few weeks and if they get the running game going on Thursday, they could win this game easily. I have action on the Eagles SU, ATS, I like the OVER at 44 and an excellent lesson I’ve been tipped off to is to only tease plays you think will hit without the extra points. I’m using that tip on TNF.
The Pick: Saints -4.5 (-105)
The Stat: The Saints are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five home games out of a bye week and teams playing on extra rest this season are 10-0 ATS.
New Orleans comes into its matchup with the battered Lions with a week of rest and I’ll be surprised – no, SHOCKED – if Drew Brees doesn’t torch Detroit.
In those five straight home games out of a bye week that the Saints have won, they’ve averaged 41.4 points for. Detroit’s secondary was exposed by Cam Newton and a subpar passing offense last week and they’re about to have their pants pulled down by one of the best passing attacks in the NFL.
The Pick: Packers -3 (-115)
The Stat: Aaron Rodgers kills NFC North opponents, and the Vikings specifically.
In 18 career games against the Vikings, No. 12 has a 112.1 passer rating and he’s chucked 39 touchdowns. He and the Packers have a ton of momentum after that masterful comeback win last week and they’re facing a Vikings side that’s lost its identity.
Green Bay should win this by a couple of touchdowns and I have no problem laying the three points.
The Pick: 3 Team 10-point Teaser: Falcons -2, Redskins 0, Broncos -1.5 (-130)
All three of these teams are vastly superior to their Week 6 opponents and all three should win handily on home turf Sunday. I think I said something similar about my teaser that BOMBED last week but this week it’s different – it has to be.
The Falcons are playing a floundering Dolphins team that’s had a nose full of distractions this week, the Washington Professional Football Team just needs to beat the 0-5 49ers and the Broncos are up against a receiverless Giants offense that can’t run the football.
I’m not even checking this on Sunday night to see if it cashed, these chickens have been counted.
The Pick: Deshaun Watson OVER 2 TD Passes +150
The Stat: Deshaun Watson has thrown 9 total touchdowns in his last two games and he’s playing the Browns this week.
Cleveland has played against some really bad passing teams this season yet the Browns have allowed at least two touchdowns through the air in all but one of their games.
They’ll be facing a red-hot Texans offense on Sunday that’s thriving under rookie signal-caller Deshaun Watson and with Houston’s defense banged up, I’m expecting them to give up some points. If they do, Watson will be forced to throw the ball and he’s got two STUD flankers in DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller IV who reel in everything that’s thrown in their general direction.
This prop is being offered at Bovada. Make them pay.
The Pick: Bears SU +240
I’m throwing all rationale out the window for this one and putting my faith and betting dollars on Mitch “the Truth” Trubisky. I really liked what I saw from the rookie in his first game against one of the best defenses in the NFL and he should only be better in his second game.
He’s got a tough challenge ahead of him playing the Ravens in Baltimore but I like the Bears to hold Joe Flacco to a minimum and I’m banking on Mitchell to grind one out after learning some important lessons on Monday night.
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