Last week was one that was filled with extremely bad beats for me. I had an awesome +210 parlay busted by the flag-happy refs on Thursday night and the Jets blew a two-touchdown lead late in the fourth quarter. That’s betting.
My luck is bound to change this week – let’s make some picks.
The Pick: Dolphins-Ravens OVer 37 (-115)
The Stat: The OVER/UNDER record for the last 10 NFL games with totals of 37 or lower is 8-2.
Most of the time when I see a total this low, I immediately think UNDER but the trends suggest that’s a bad mindset – especially for these Thursday nighters. So far this season, five of the seven games on Thursday have hit the OVER and I think this one does too.
While I don’t expect the Ravens to contribute much to the final output, I’m starting to really like this Dolphins offense. They’ll call upon Matt Moore for the TNF start with Jay Cutler still banged up and, using Moore’s performance last week as a baseline, that’s a great thing for the Dolphins and OVER bettors.
Jay Ajayi should go wild against the worst rush defense in the NFL and that should open up the play-action and the passing game. Feel free to take the Dolphins +3 on a parlay with the OVER but don’t yell at me if the Fish stink it up; these Thursday night games always have a weird wrinkle.
The Pick: 6-point Teaser Chargers +13.5, Raiders +9 (-120)
The Stat: West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast are 39-14-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when teased by 6 points.
Not only do I like the Chargers when given +13.5 points, I kind of like them straight up. They’re a horrible matchup for the Pats and their moneyline is calling my name. Tossed in with a teaser, though, this is a solid bet with the Raiders getting 9 points against a Bills team they should beat into the ground.
We will hit another teaser one of these weeks, I promise.
The Pick: Eagles -13 (-105)
The Stat: The Super Computer is projecting a 43-7 win for the Eagles this week and is 23-19-1 ATS this season when a spread closes in double digits.
I may be drinking the Kool-Aid on Carson Wentz but I don’t care, this kid is electric and he’s going to beat the pants off an awful 49ers side that’s coming off a 30-point home loss.
The Eagles offense looks pretty unstoppable right now and their defense has been solid. The Niners have almost nothing to throw at the 6-1 Eagles in Philly and they’ll be heading back to the Golden State with a rusty 0-8 record and a second straight ATS loss.
The Pick: Steelers-Lions UNDER 45.5 (-110)
The Stat: The Steelers have a 1-6 OVER/UNDER record this season.
This is basically a blind trend follow and I’m not embarrassed to admit that.
That said, the Steelers have finally realized that they’re better off not throwing the ball 50 times a game and they’ve begun to utilize their workhorse running back. Running the ball takes time off the clock and that usually results in lower scores when done effectively.
Detroit, though, is good at stopping the run and Le’Veon Bell might not have the room he’s used to.
On the other side of the ball, the Lions will be going up against by far the best pass defense in the NFL. The Steelers have allowed just 147 passing yards per game through seven games and Matt Stafford has come back down to earth after a hot start.
If you can find a prop for total punts in this one, go ahead and grab the OVER.
The Pick: Redskins +2 (-105)
The Stat: The Redskins are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs.
That record when getting points at home really speaks for itself. The Redskins are a great home bet and they don’t seem to care about being pegged as the underdog.
If Washington can keep Ezekiel Elliott at bay, something they’ve been doing with running backs all season, they have a good chance at beating a disappointing Cowboys team and I like the juice on the spread.
The Pick: Alex Smith to throw an Interception (+150)
The Stat: The Broncos have allowed just 71.8 rushing yards per game.
Alex Smith hasn’t thrown a pick yet this season but he’ll be facing the best defense in the league under the bright lights of Monday Night Football and I’m betting he coughs it up once or twice.
Denver allows basically nothing on the ground so Smith could have to throw the ball more than he’s comfortable doing against a Broncos secondary that’s very capable of catching the pigskin.
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