Week 9 is definitely not the sexiest board I’ve ever seen in terms of pure entertainment value but with few simple wagers, things become very interesting very quickly.
Here are my favorite plays for this week:
The Pick: Bills -3 (-135)
The Stat: The Bills are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS this season when they’ve rushed for more than 100 yards as a team. The Jets allow 128.3 rushing yards per game.
Trends point emphatically away from the Bills on Thursday but I don’t care. They are a far superior team to the one they’ll play in the Week 9 icebreaker and I wouldn’t be shocked if they ran away with it (pun intended).
Expect an early dosage of LeSean McCoy on TNF and if he’s effective, this could be the easiest cash of the weekend.
*The Pick: Colts vs Texans OVER 52 (-110)*
The Stat: The Texans lead the NFL in points per game with 30.7 and the Colts are allowing the most points per game at 30.8.
Don’t think too much about this one. The Texans have posted five straight OVERs and there’s a real worry – as a Colts fan – that they’ll drop a 50-burger on the worst defense in the NFL on Sunday. This is another easy play.
*Note: This pick was predicated on the health of Deshaun Watson. The news of his ACL tear and subsequent replacement by Tom Savage dropped the Texans’ opening line of -13 to -7 and the opening total of 52 to 46.
Check in with me on Twitter @robtrocity to see if I’m still playing anything on this game.
The Pick: Jaguars SU and UNDER 39 Parlay (+175)
The Stat: Jacksonville allows a league-low 161.7 passing yards per game and the Bengals have no running game.
Cincinnati is in real trouble here against what looks like the best defense in the NFL but I don’t think there are enough points scored for the Jaguars to cover the spread. Jags win 17-14 in a game the paramedics should be on high alert.
The Bengals have given up 3.1 sacks per game. The Jags? They lead the league with 33 so far and they’re on pace to challenge the ’84 Bears for the record of 72 in a season.
It’s a good thing the Browns screwed up that AJ McCarron trade. I have a feeling his services may be required before the final whistle blows in Jacksonville.
The Pick: Falcons -1 (-115)
The Stat: The Falcons are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the NFC.
I don’t know why the Dirty Birds had such a problem with the AFC East but I still really like the Falcons and am expecting them to smarten up and take flight any time now. This is a massive game on Sunday with the NFC South standings so tight and I just can’t see Carolina keeping up offensively.
Matt Ryan gets it going in the house that Cam Newton is currently in the process of tearing down. Falcons win 24-17.
The Pick: Raiders to not get an interception in Week 9 (+150)
The Stat: They don’t have one yet.
That’s right, the Raiders are the last team in the NFL without an interception and I like the value for that to continue even if it is Jay Cutler throwing the ball at them.
The Pick: Brock Osweiler Total Interceptions OVER 1 (+110)
The Stat: Osweiler has 22 interceptions in 819 career pass attempts, the Eagles have nine interceptions this season and Broncos QBs have been picked off 10 times in 2017.
With the Brocket ship ready for launch, I’m ready to empty my bankroll on this prop. The Broncos have been horrendous since Week 3 and Osweiler is most certainly not the answer to their problems.
The Eagles have the best rush defense in the NFL, meaning Brock is going to have to throw the ball. He’s getting picked off at least twice at Lincoln Field.
No teaser this week. I’ll be playing one that I don’t make public as a test to see if this column has cursed my teaser success.
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