We're just kicking off another football season, but it's never too early to take a look at the NFL playoff picture.
Prior to the 2023-24 chase for the Super Bowl, here's a look at how odds suggest the 2024 playoff picture will shape up.
Below, I'll break down the NFL postseason picture, every team's playoff odds, and the 2023-24 NFL win totals for each squad:
The AFC Locks:
These four AFC teams all have playoff odds over -200, which suggests a greater than 66.67% chance they'll be playing in the postseason. However, we still have a few spots up for grabs on the AFC side of the bracket. Here are the main teams fighting for those final positions:
Baltimore Ravens Playoff Chances
Beyond the locks, the Ravens have the best chance of making the postseason with 62.26% playoff odds.
The Ravens have made the playoffs in four of the last five seasons, but have just one playoff win in that time. With a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken and a few new offensive weapons, maybe Lamar Jackson's boys can actually make a run this year?
New York Jets Playoff Chances
Soak it in Jets fans, you've got expectations now. For the first time in a while playoff odds think the Jets will be playing extra football this season.
After adding a potential MVP candidate like Aaron Rodgers in the offseason and rolling back an elite defense, bookmakers give New York a 58.33% shot to make the playoffs for the first time in 13 years.
Los Angeles Chargers Playoff Chances
The Chargers have put up a winning season in four of the last six years, but they've managed to make the playoffs just twice in that time. So, even with Justin Herbert at QB and a healthy Joey Bosa and Derwin James on defense, oddsmakers aren't convinced this Chargers squad has what it takes to make the postseason.
Playoff odds have Los Angeles sitting with a 53.49% shot to play beyond Week 17.
A few other teams on the playoff fringe include the: Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos
The NFC Locks:
On the NFC side of the bracket, only three teams have greater than a 66.67% chance of making the playoffs right now. Here are some other teams the oddsmakers expect to compete for playoff positions:
New Orleans Saints Playoff Chances
The fact that the Saints have the fourth-best odds to make the playoffs in the NFC this season speaks to the state of the conference.
Despite plenty of turmoil — new QB, a suspended RB — New Orleans has a 63.64% shot of making the postseason. It helps that the Saints' division is wide open, with Tom Brady retired and the other squads retooling.
Detroit Lions Playoff Chances
This sure seems like it could be the Lions' year, right? Aaron Rodgers is out of the division, the rebuild is finally showing life, and Jared Goff has re-proven himself as a legit NFL QB.
The Lions haven't won a playoff game since 1991. But, to do that they first have to make the postseason, and oddsmakers give them a 63.24% shot.
Seattle Seahawks Playoff Chances
Geno Smith and the Seahawks were the surprise team in of 2022-23. After dealing away Russ Wilson the Seahawks managed to rattle off nine wins and outperform Wilson's new team in Denver.
Repeating that success is a different story, though, and playoff odds give the Seahawks a 54.55% shot of making the playoffs this year.
A few other teams on the playoff fringe include the: Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, Chicago Bears
After breaking down the playoff picture, here's a more in depth at every team's playoff odds for this season:
|Team||Make Playoffs||Miss Playoffs|
|Green Bay Packers||+145||-175|
|Los Angeles Chargers||-125||-105|
|Los Angeles Rams||+215||-275|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-500||+375|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+350||-500|
|New England Patriots||+240||-300|
|New Orleans Saints||-165||+135|
|New York Giants||+145||-175|
|New York Jets||-165||+135|
|San Francisco 49ers||-400||+300|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+350||-500|
With seven playoff spots on both the AFC and NFC side of the bracket, there's more postseason potential than ever before for each team. Here's my best bet to make the playoffs this year, given the value of their odds:
Best Playoff Odds Bet: Vikings
I understand that the Vikings were pretty fraudulent in 2022, somehow winning 13 games with a -3 point differential. But, I think they have room to regress and still make the playoffs.
Sure, Dalvin Cook is gone, but Kirk Cousins and Alex Mattison should be able to lead Minnesota to another top-10 offense. And, with new defensive coordinator Brian Flores in charge, the Vikings added corner Byron Murphy, DE Marcus Davenport, and DL Dean Lowry in the offseason to solidify the team's real weakness on D.
The Vikings may not win 13 games again in 2023, but the defensive adds should allow them to get back to the postseason, at the very least.
|Team||2023 Win Total||OVER||UNDER||2022-23 Record|
|Green Bay Packers||7.5||-130||+100||8-9|
|Kansas City Chiefs||11.5||-140||+110||14-3|
|Las Vegas Raiders||6.5||-130||+100||6-11|
|Los Angeles Chargers||9.5||-135||+105||10-7|
|Los Angeles Rams||6.5||-140||+110||5-12|
|New England Patriots||7.5||-130||+100||8-9|
|New Orleans Saints||9||-125||-105||7-10|
|New York Giants||7.5||-115||-115||9-7-1|
|New York Jets||9.5||-130||+100||7-10|
|San Francisco 49ers||10.5||-150||+120||13-4|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||6.5||-145||+115||8-9|
Win totals are one of the best ways to gauge how books expect your team to do in the upcoming season. It's also a great way to lock in a bet if you disagree with a line. Here's my best bet for the year:
Best Win Total Bet: Jaguars OVER 9.5
Betting on the Jaguars to win 10 games is a risky move, but there's just something going right in Jacksonville.
With QB Trevor Lawrence taking a big step forward last year and coach Doug Pederson leading the Jags to the postseason, the Jaguars are trending back into legit contention. But, this OVER bet is more about the Jags' competition in 2023.
Based on 2022-23 records, the Jaguars have the sixth-easiest strength of schedule in the AFC. All three squads in their division (Titans, Colts, Texans) will have rookie QBs this year and are in a retool or rebuilding mode. Add in a few more soft games against teams like the Steelers and Buccaneers and the Jags could have 12 or more victories this year.