NFL Playoff Picture and Bracket

2024 NFL Playoff Picture: Then There Were Four

There are only three games left in the NFL season, meaning the playoff picture has never looked clearer.

Four teams still have a shot at the 2024 Super Bowl, and I'll break down the postseason picture and latest bracket below. We've also got playoff odds and win totals from the beginning of the season, to look back on:

Championship Game Bracket

2024 AFC Playoff Picture

No. 1 Baltimore Ravens  vs No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs

Even though the Bills were technically the AFC's No. 2 seed, this always seemed like the inevitable AFC Championship game. The Ravens have long been the AFC's top squad this year, while the Chiefs are the conference's recent powerhouse — playing in in six-straight Championship games.

In a battle of recent strength and established power, the Ravens sit as 3.5-point favorites.

2024 NFC Playoff Picture

No. 1 San Francisco 49ers vs No. 3 Detroit Lions

Just like the Ravens and Chiefs on the AFC side, the 49ers were always supposed to be here. Despite some blips and slides in the middle of the season, San Francisco was basically always the best team in the NFC.

The unknown here are the Lions. Detroit hadn't won a playoff game in decades, and now they're just one win away from the Super Bowl. The Lions are 6.5-point underdogs, but maybe they can keep the dream run going and upset San Fran?


2024 NFL Playoff Odds

We know how things played out, but here were the playoff odds for teams entering Week 18:

2024 NFL Playoff Odds
TeamMake PlayoffsMiss Playoffs
Atlanta Falcons+750-1500
Buffalo Bills-800+500
Green Bay Packers-190+155
Houston Texans+100-130
Indianapolis Colts-135+105
Jacksonville Jaguars-290+230
New Orleans Saints+250-325
Pittsburgh Steelers+130-160
Seattle Seahawks+250-325
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-250+195


Mike Tomlin once again proved his value to both the Pittsburgh Steelers and NFL bettors. After sitting at +180 odds to make the playoffs entering Week 18, the Steelers won and got a whole lot of help to make the postseason.

Jacksonville's loss and subsequent failure to make the playoffs will be talked about for a long time down in Duval. Doug Pederson's team was riding high at 8-3 in late October, one game out of the top seed in the AFC. However, the Jags lost five of their last six to miss the playoffs entirely. Those who smacked Jacksonville at +230 to miss the playoffs prior to Week 18 have to be riding high.

DeMeco Ryans and CJ Stroud reinvigorated the Houston Texans franchise this year, too. Winners of just three games last season, the Texans were +550 to make the postseason prior to Week 1.

Yet, an opportunistic defense and the unbelievable play of their rookie quarterback led them all the way to the AFC South division championship. They may have lost in the Divisional Round to the Ravens, but it's hard to call this season anything but a win.

2023-24 NFL Win Totals

While win total lines are closed now, here are the preseason markets to look back at for what expectations were like for every NFL squad entering the year:

2023-24 NFL Regular season win totals 
Team2023 Win TotalOVERUNDER2022-23 Record
Arizona Cardinals4.5-105-1254-13
Atlanta Falcons8.5-130+1007-10
Baltimore Ravens10.5-105-12510-7
Buffalo Bills10.5-140+11013-3
Carolina Panthers7.5-125-1057-10
Chicago Bears7.5-115-1053-14
Cincinnati Bengals11.5-145+11512-4
Cleveland Browns9.5+110-1407-10
Dallas Cowboys9.5-170+14012-5
Denver Broncos8.5-105-1255-12
Detroit Lions9.5-140+1109-8
Green Bay Packers7.5-130+1008-9
Houston Texans6.5-145+1153-13-1
Indianapolis Colts6.5-135+1054-12-1
Jacksonville Jaguars9.5-150+1209-8
Kansas City Chiefs11.5-140+11014-3
Las Vegas Raiders6.5-130+1006-11
Los Angeles Chargers9.5-135+10510-7
Los Angeles Rams6.5-140+1105-12
Miami Dolphins9.5-125-1059-8
Minnesota Vikings8.5-115-11513-4
New England Patriots7.5-130+1008-9
New Orleans Saints9-125-1057-10
New York Giants7.5-115-1159-7-1
New York Jets9.5-130+1007-10
Philadelphia Eagles10.5-125-10514-3
Pittsburgh Steelers8.5-165+1359-8
San Francisco 49ers10.5-150+12013-4
Seattle Seahawks8.5-150+1209-8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.5-145+1158-9
Tennessee Titans7.5-130+1007-10
Washington Commanders6.5-140+1108-8-1

Once again, the Houston Texans are one of the greatest overachievers in NFL regular season win totals. CJ Stroud became just the third quarterback in NFL history to lead the league in both passing yardage per game, and touchdown to interception ratio, in his rookie season! The Texans surpassed their 6.5 win total by a gargantuan 3.5 wins to take home the AFC South title. Houston cashed the -145 odds with ease.

Similarly, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished 9-8 to take home the NFC South and cash their OVER 6.5 win total at -145 odds.

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