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How Tom Brady’s Move To Tampa Bay Moved NFL Futures Markets

Tom Brady Betting Markets March 18 2020

What was thought to be all but impossible after nearly two decades of success, the New England Patriots will no longer have Tom Brady as their starting quarterback. The Golden Boy is reportedly planning to sign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be their quarterback for the foreseeable future and his departure from Foxborough has created a shock wave through nearly every NFL futures market.

Super Bowl 55 Odds 

Naturally, the two NFL teams directly affected by Tom Brady’s move are the New England Patriots and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. For timeline purposes, the Patriots were +1200 to win Super Bowl 55 on March 8 but when Brady posted a cryptic message on social media on March 17, thanking New England fans and personnel for his time in Massachusetts, the writing was literally on the wall for his impending departure.

So, the Pats’ odds rose as high as +2500 with the uncertainty of who the new signal-caller will be in Foxborough and backup Jarrett Stidham being bumped to first on the Patriots’ depth chart. However, it seems bettors didn’t forget that New England still has the best coach in the business in Bill Belichick, who led the Pats to an 11-5 SU record when Brady missed the 2008 season due to a torn ACL.

The Patriots then moved back to +1800 on March 18 and they’ll likely be in the hunt for some of the remaining quarterbacks on the market like Cam Newton or Andy Dalton or perhaps look to address the position in the NFL draft.

Then there’s the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have seen a massive odds shift for this betting market. The Bucs’ odds are now at +1200 to win Super Bowl 55 after sitting at +5000 just 10 days ago. Yes, that’s right, the Buccaneers, who haven’t made the playoffs in 13 years and haven’t had odds that low since coming off their Super Bowl win in 2003. It remains to be seen how Brady fares in Tampa Bay with his first new coach in nearly 20 years and completely different teammates.

It’s also worth mentioning that the team that may have benefited the most from Brady’s move to the NFC was the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs, who are coming off an impressive Super Bowl 54 win, were at +700 to repeat as champs but their odds have dropped to +550 with the Brady news and the possibility they don’t have to go through Gillette Stadium to win the AFC.

Read more in-depth analysis for Super Bowl 55 odds or check out our NFL futures page for the most up-to-date odds.

Super Bowl 55 Odds
TeamMarch 18, 2020March 8, 2020September 2019
New England Patriots+1800+1200+1400
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+1200+5000+6000

Odds as of March 18 at  Bovada


Another popular NFL betting prop that saw a direct impact from Brady’s signing with the Buccaneers was the NFL Most Valuable Player award. While Brady has three MVP trophies in his career, oddsmakers believe he has a decent shot to lift the Bucs from the basement and have a great year in Florida.

According to online sportsbook Bovada, Brady had odds of +2800 to win MVP as of March 16 when there was still the possibility of suiting up with New England.

Those odds then dropped significantly, down to +1600 overnight on March 18 with the news of Brady going to Tampa Bay, putting him fifth on the oddsboard, right behind Cardinals QB Kyler Murray at +1200 and just ahead of Texans QB Deshaun Watson, who sits at +1800. His opening odds to win MVP to start the 2019 season were +1400 and for the record, Patrick Mahomes is the fave to win the 2020 MVP at +350.

Tom Brady NFL MVP Odds
MVPMarch 18, 2020March 16, 2020September 2019
Tom Brady+1600+2800+1400

Odds as of March 18 at  Bovada

Divisional Futures

AFC East Odds

For anyone who has tracked or bet on the AFC East divisional odds, you would know that the New England Patriots were routinely listed as massive favorites to win the divisional crown. After all, they had won the division in 18 of the last 19 seasons and opened the 2019 season as -500 favorites. Very routine stuff.

Now, as of March 18, the Patriots are still technically the odds-on favorites but at much more reasonable odds at -110 with online sportsbook BetOnline. The Buffalo Bills trail them at +175 followed by the New York Jets at +650 and the potentially rejuvenated Miami Dolphins at +1000. Each of those three teams must feel like they have a new lease on life knowing they at least have a shot to win the division with the Patriots seemingly as weak as they’ve ever been.

Odds To Win AFC East Division
TeamMarch 18, 2020September 2019
New England Patriots-110-500
Buffalo Bills+200+950
New York Jets+650+600
Miami Dolphins+1000+2500

Odds as of March 18 at BetOnline

NFC South Odds

In the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been a laughingstock, to say the least. Since 2002, when the division was reconfigured to include the Saints, Falcons, Panthers and Bucs, Tampa Bay has won the NFC South three times. For the last time the Buccaneers won the division, you have to go back to 2007.

As of March 18, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not the favorites to win the NFC South but sit at +200 to win the division, right behind the New Orleans Saints, who are odds-on faves at -125. While some analysts and bettors may still think this is the Saints’ division to lose, it’s worth noting the Bucs opened with +1200 odds to win the NFC South about a month ago, so oddsmakers clearly believe Tampa Bay could seriously challenge for the divisional title.

Odds To Win NFC South Division
TeamMarch 18, 2020September 2019
New Orleans Saints-275-190
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+200+1200
Atlanta Falcons+600+350
Carolina Panthers+1400+550

Odds as of March 18 at BetOnline

Conference Championship Futures

In September 2019, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened at +8000 to win the NFC and make the Super Bowl, the fourth-worst odds in the conference. Fast-forward to March 18 and oddsmakers have installed the Buccaneers with the third-best odds to win the conference at +900, just behind the 49ers and Saints.

In the AFC, the Patriots were +200 favorites in 2019 to win the AFC and win the Super Bowl for the fourth time in six seasons. After all, they had just appeared in two straight Super Bowls and were crushing teams on defense. Going into the 2020 season, the Patriots’ odds are at +1000 to make it to Super Bowl 55, which sits third in the AFC behind the Chiefs and Ravens and just ahead of their divisional rival, the Buffalo Bills.

Odds To Win Conference
TeamMarch 18, 2020September 2019
New England Patriots (AFC)+1000+200
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC)+900+8000

Odds as of March 18 at BetOnline

Betting on Tom Brady’s Odds

Besides betting on individual football games, you can bet on where Tom Brady will end up for the 2020 NFL season. As an elite quarterback, there is much interest in whether he’ll retire, stay with New England or move on to another team.

At the sportsbook, the odds would look something like this:

What team will Tom Brady be on next season?
  • Patriots -210
  • None/Retired +150
  • Chargers +300
  • Bears +1200

Let’s say you believe the QB is going to call it quits. If you were to make a $50 prop bet – more on that later – and he did hang up his cleats, you would get a payout of $125 – your original $50 is returned along with your winnings of $75. Our Odds Calculator will show you what you’d collect based on the odds and amount bet.

When bookmakers create these betting lines, they look at everything from New England’s chances of winning another Super Bowl to Brady’s age, his family life, net worth, overall health and real estate news – if he sells his pad in Massachusetts and buys a home in Illinois, he may be looking at playing for a team there.

What is a Prop Bet?

A prop is a bet made on the occurrence or non-occurrence of certain events that may not correlate directly to the outcome of a game. Instead of betting on the spread or taking the Patriots to win straight up, in this case, you’d be making a prop bet on Tom Brady’s odds to play in the NFL for another team, end his playing career, or stay with New England.