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NFL 2021 Wild Card Weekend Betting Primer

The playoffs are here, which of course means fewer games, but that’s a good thing for us bettors as it gives us more time to focus on a smaller slate as opposed to trying to dissect a 16-game schedule. With that said, there are no excuses not to post a perfect record this weekend and throughout the playoffs.

No one wants to hear about your bad beats either, because we’ve all had them, so stop complaining because it’s part of the betting process. Sorry if this comes off as rude – I’m just annoyed that I lost my OVER bet in last week’s Ravens-Bengals game because Cincinnati could only score three points and even threw an interception in the red zone in the second half. Unbelievable! 

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Anyways, there’s been a theme developing during Wild Card Weekend that strongly points toward underdogs covering the spread. They’re on a tear that’s seen them go 11-1 ATS in the last 12 wild-card games. Low-scoring games have also hijacked the opening playoff round with the UNDER hitting in 17 of the last 22 wild-card games.

This playoff round has also produced a lot of unpredictable results in recent seasons, with lots of big underdogs picking up outright wins, so tread carefully before blindly dumping the big favorites into parlays and teasers. In fact, since 2014, there have been five instances of underdogs with odds of +200 or higher winning the game.

Underdogs are 11-1 ATS in the last 12 wild-card games

Speaking of betting trends, before you dig into the numbers below, keep in mind that there will be a lot of numbers to support every team in every game throughout the playoffs. That’s what happens when the only teams remaining are the teams that are good, and in some cases great. I did, however, try to point out some strengths vs weaknesses and trends that align.

Good luck in Wild Card Weekend, aka the first step in your journey to a perfect betting record throughout the NFL playoffs where everything will work out exactly the way your know-it-all hung-over friend thinks it will. Believe in yourself! 

Stats and Trends for Wild Card Weekend:

Colts at Bills
  • The Bills have won six consecutive games by double digits and three straight by 29 or more.
  • The Bills have a 15-1 record on 6-point teasers this season.
  • The Bills rank first in third-down conversion percentage. The Colts are 22nd.
  • The Bills are 28th in opponent red-zone TD scoring %.
  • The Bills are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Bills are 6-0 SU in their last six games. (Avg winning margin: 19.83)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Colts' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 56.17)
  • The Colts are 0-6 SU in their last six games as an underdog.
  • The Colts are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Bills are 0-6 SU in their last six games in the playoffs.
  • The Bills are 9-0 SU in their last nine games in the playoffs as home favorites.
Rams at Seahawks
  • In their two matchups this season, the teams combined for 29 points in one and 39 in the other.
  • Russell Wilson threw 10 more touchdown passes at home than he did on the road.
  • The Rams rank first in yards allowed per play for the season. The Seahawks are fourth over their last three games.
  • The Rams are third in opponent third-down conversion %. Seattle is 27th.
  • The Rams are second in QB sack % while Seattle is 28th in sack % allowed.
  • These teams are third and fifth in yards allowed per rush attempt.
  • The Seahawks are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games in the playoffs at home.
  • The Rams are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games on the road vs the Seahawks.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Rams' last 13 games. (Avg combined score: 39.08)
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Seahawks' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 39.13)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Rams' last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs.
  • The Seahawks are 7-1 SU in their last eight games as home favorites.
Buccaneers at Washington 
  • The last time Washington lost by more than eight points was on October 11. They haven’t lost by more than three in games started by Alex Smith.
  • Washington home games had an average combined score of 37.5, which is the second-lowest in the NFL.
  • Washington has a league-worst 3-13 first-half ATS record.
  • These teams rank second and sixth in yards per play allowed. Offensively, the Bucs are seventh in yards per play while Washington is 31st.
  • Washington is third in opponent completion %. Tampa Bay is 29th.
  • These teams rank fourth and seventh in QB sack %.
  • Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS and 1-3 SU in night games this season.
  • The total has gone OVER in 21 of the Buccaneers' last 30 games. (Avg combined score: 55.73)
  • The Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites.
  • The Buccaneers are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in Washington's last five games. (Avg combined score: 36.0)
  • Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.
Ravens at Titans
  • The Ravens have a league-best 13-3 first-half ATS record.
  • Titans games averaged a league-high average combined score of 58.13.
  • Baltimore ranks seventh in yards per play allowed. Tennessee is 25th. They both rank in the top 10 in yards per play gained.
  • The Titans are second in red-zone TD scoring %, but 30th in red-zone TD scoring % allowed.
  • These teams are fourth and fifth in third-down conversion %. However, Baltimore is second in third-down defense while the Titans are 32nd.
  • The Titans rank last in QB pressure % and QB sack %.
  • Baltimore ranks seventh in time of possession. Tennessee is 28th.
  • These teams are first and second in yards per rush attempt and in the bottom half of the league in this category defensively.
  • The Ravens average the third-most penalty yards per game.
  • The Ravens are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games on the road.
  • The Ravens are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road.
  • The Ravens are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last six games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in the playoffs.
  • The Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in the playoffs on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Titans' last 14 games at home. (Avg combined score: 58.71)
  • The Titans are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after consecutive ATS losses.
Bears at Saints
  • The Saints beat the Bears 26-23 in overtime on November 1 in Chicago. Alvin Kamara has 96 receiving yards.
  • The Bears have averaged 30.1 points per game since Mitch Trubisky regained the starting QB position.
  • The Saints have a 13-3 teaser record this season.
  • The Saints rank fourth in yards per play allowed. The Bears are 27th in yards per play gained.
  • The Bears are fifth in opponent red-zone TD scoring %. The Saints are 29th.
  • The Saints averaged the second-most penalty yards per game.
  • The Saints rank second in opponent completion %.
  • The Saints are fourth in yards allowed per rush attempt. The Bears are 21st in yards per rush attempt.
  • The Saints are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Bears are 4-15 SU in their last 19 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Saints' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 56.38)
  • The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four games at home in January.
  • The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in the playoffs as favorites.
  • The Saints are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in the playoffs as home favorites.
  • The Bears are 0-6 SU in their last six games vs the Saints. (Avg losing margin: 10.5)
Browns at Steelers
  • The Steelers rank first in opponent completion %.
  • The Browns are 0-17 SU in their last 17 games on the road vs the Steelers. (Avg losing margin: 13.59)
  • The Browns are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.
  • The Browns are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Browns' last 11 games vs their division on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Browns' last 10 games at night.
  • The Steelers are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games as a favorite.
  • The total has gone OVER in 16 of the Steelers' last 18 games at home in January.
  • The Steelers are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games vs their division at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in 19 of the Steelers' last 26 games in the playoffs.
  • The Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in the playoffs at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Steelers' last 14 games in the playoffs at home.
  • The Steelers are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games in the playoffs as a favorite.