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NFL Wild-Card Betting Picks, Stats and Trends Primer

NFL Wild Card Picks and Stats

The playoffs are here, which of course means fewer games but that’s a good thing for us bettors as it gives us more time to focus on a smaller slate as opposed to trying to dissect a 16-game schedule. With that said, there are no excuses not to post a perfect record this weekend and throughout the playoffs.

There’s been a theme developing during Wild Card Weekend that strongly points toward home teams and favorites. Home teams have been a very nice wager specifically on the Saturday games where they’ve gone 14-7-1 ATS since 2007. As for favorites, they’re on a nice 11-3 SU run on Wild Card Weekend, so if you’re a bit uneasy about this weekend’s spreads, maybe consider a moneyline bet or two.

Favorites are 11-3 SU in the last 14 wild-card games

Speaking of betting trends, before you dig into the numbers below, keep in mind that there will be a lot of numbers to support every team in every game throughout the playoffs. That’s what happens when the only teams remaining are the teams that are good, and in some cases great.

Good luck in Wild Card Weekend, aka the first step in your journey to a perfect betting record throughout the NFL playoffs. Believe in yourself! 

Best Bets for Wild Card Weekend:

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for the wild-card games using Bovada lines from Thursday, January 3:

  • Texans -1
  • Seahawks +8 and Chargers +8.5 on a 6-point teaser
  • Bears -3.5 first-half spread (more on this pick here)*

*This was originally picked at -3 earlier in the week, but I’m still confident in the bet at -3.5.

Stats and Trends for Wild Card Weekend:

Indianapolis vs Houston
  • The Texans allowed just 17 points per game at home this season — third-lowest in the NFL.
  • The Texans have allowed an average of just 13.33 points over their last three home games. The Colts are allowing an average of just 14.2 points over their last five games.
  • Andrew Luck averaged 431.5 passing yards and had six TD passes in two games vs Houston this season.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Colts' last five games vs the Texans. (Avg combined score: 44.8)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Colts' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 39.71)
  • Texans home games had an average combined score of 42.88 this season.
  • The Texans have allowed just 59 rushing yards per game over their last three games — second-lowest in the NFL over this span.
  • In six career playoff games, Andrew Luck is 3-3 with nine TDs, 12 INTs and a 70.8 QB rating.
  • In two national championship games in college, Deshaun Watson threw for an average of 412.5 yards and compiled seven total TD passes and one INT. The man is a big-game player.
  • The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home.
  • The Colts are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games in the playoffs on the road.
  • The Colts are 26-8 SU in their last 34 games vs the Texans.
Seattle vs Dallas
  • In Seattle’s 24-13 victory over the Cowboys in Week 4, Dak Prescott had just 168 passing yards, one TD and two INTs with a 54.5 QB rating.
  • The Seahawks are 25-6-4 ATS in their last 35 games at night.
  • The Seahawks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 night games as an underdog.
  • The Seahawks led the NFL with 160 rushing yards per game.
  • The Seahawks are 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
  • The Seahawks led the NFL with a +15 turnover differential this season.
  • The Cowboys had the second-worst red-zone TD scoring percentage at home in the NFL during the regular season.
  • The visiting team is 3-7 SU in the last 10 games in this matchup.
  • The Cowboys are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Seahawks' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 53.88)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Cowboys' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 45.0)
  • The Cowboys are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games at night.
LA Chargers vs Baltimore
  • Since 2002, Pacific and Mountain Time Zone NFL teams have been outscored 202-56 in the first half of all 1 p.m. ET playoff games.
  • Rookie quarterbacks are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in the playoffs since 2012.
  • The Ravens are allowing an average of just 15.33 points over their last three games. This includes holding the Chargers to 10 points in Week 16’s 22-10 victory.
  • Since Lamar Jackson took over at QB seven games ago, the Ravens are averaging 229.86 rushing yards per game. In their first nine games, they only averaged 92.67!
  • In nine career playoff games, Philip Rivers has 11 TD passes and nine INTs.
  • Chargers road games had an average combined score of 47.63 this season.
  • The Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last seven playoff games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Ravens' last six games in the playoffs at home.
  • The Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home.
  • The Ravens are 4-14 SU in their last 18 games after consecutive wins.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Chargers' last seven games vs the Ravens. (Avg combined score: 47.71)
  • The Chargers are 6-0 SU in their last six games on the road. (Avg winning margin: 10.67)
  • The Chargers led the NFL in net yards per play on the road during the regular season.
Philadelphia vs Chicago
  • The Bears are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games at home. (Avg winning margin: 9.4)
  • Over their last four games, the Bears are allowing an average of just 10.5 points.
  • The Bears are 8-1 ATS on the first-half spread in their last nine games. They also led the NFL in first-half point differential this season at +8. The Eagles were tied for the second-worst first-half spread record at 6-10 ATS.
  • In Weeks 15-17 with Nick Foles at QB, the Eagles averaged 28.7 points and 420 yards per game. In Weeks 1-14 they averaged 21.62 points and 352.7 yards per game.
  • The Bears led the NFL in net yards per play at home this season.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bears' last four games. (Avg combined score: 29.75)
  • Over their last three games, the Eagles have allowed a league-low 55 rushing yards per game. Chicago isn’t far off at 66.
  • The Eagles have a league-best 44.64% opponents’ red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The Bears had a league-best 27 interceptions during the regular season. Nick Foles has thrown an interception in each of his last three starts.
  • The Eagles allowed 304.9 passing yards per game on the road — the second-highest average in the NFL.
  • In his only career start vs the Eagles, Mitch Trubisky had one of the worst starts of his career — zero touchdowns and two interceptions with a 51.52 completion percentage, leading the Bears to just three points.