After eliminating the Toronto Maple Leafs from the Stanley Cup playoffs, again, the Boston Bruins have set themselves on a course to win the East and head to the Stanley Cup Finals.
How? Well, it seems that lately, the Leafs are some sort of Eastern Kingmakers.
NHL Eastern Conference Kingmakers
Over the past five playoffs (not counting the ongoing 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs), the eventual Eastern Conference champ has gone through the Leafs four times.
| Year | Team | vs Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Florida Panthers | 2nd Round |
| 2022 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 1st Round |
| 2021 | Montreal Canadiens | 1st Round |
| 2020 | Tampa Bay Lightning | N/A |
| 2019 | Boston Bruins | 1st Round |
The road to an Eastern Conference title and a berth in the Stanley Cup Finals is through Toronto. There's clear anecdotal evidence but that's not likely enough to make you go and bet on the Bruins to win the East at +260.
This next bit might entice you, however.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| New York Rangers | +115 |
| Boston Bruins | +260 |
| Florida Panthers | +320 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +550 |
Odds as of May 8
We know that Florida is favored to beat the Bruins in their second-round matchup. Looking at our Playoff Series Preview for this duel you'll see that oddsmakers are giving Florida an implied 66% chance of winning this series at -190. BUT Boston swept the regular-season series with Florida going 4-0SU. Push that to the last 10 regular-season meetings and Boston is 8-2SU against the Panthers.
It's entirely possible Boston gets through Florida. They already took Game 1 of that series with a resounding 5-1 win.
From there Boston would have to face either the Presidents' Trophy-cursed New York Rangers or the Carolina "chokes-in-the-playoffs-like-the-Leafs" Hurricanes. The road for the Bruins is pretty open to win the East after taking down the Leafs.
Betting Angle In Post-Leafs Playoff Runs?
Ok, maybe you aren't rushing to your sportsbook to make a play on the Bruins to win the division or the Cup because they took down the Maple Leafs. I can respect that. But if you're one of those people, I did some extra digging here to try to find you something else to bet on.
How about betting on the total for Bruins games going forward? There's a recent trend that seems to indicate teams flip on the total after playing the Leafs.
| Year | Team | Total vs Leafs | Not Against Leafs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Bruins | 3-4 | 7-9-1 |
| 2021 | Canadiens | 2-5 | 4-6-5 |
| 2022 | Lightning | 5-2 | 4-12 |
| 2023 | Panthers | 0-5 | 9-7 |
In 2022, Tampa was an OVERs machine vs Toronto and then just shut it down after taking out the Leafs. Last year, Florida did the opposite by shutting down the Leafs and then was unable to repeat that against anyone else.
And while it's still early in the Bruins' playoff run after taking out the Leafs, they're 100% against the OVER. They were 14% when playing the Leafs. Boston and Florida are 11-8 against the OVER since 2020. There are some legs to this line of thinking as this series progresses.
Conn Smythe Watch
For those of us who like to play the futures market, specifically, now that we're well into the playoffs, I want to draw your attention to the Conn Smythe futures market. Because the standout player when the Leafs are eliminated is typically the favorite to win the Conn Smyth going into the Stanley Cup Finals.
| Year | Standout Player (Stats) | Conn Smythe Odds (Rank) |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Tuukka Rask (0.928SV% & 2.32GAA) | -160 (1) |
| 2021 | Carey Price (0.932SV% & 2.24GAA) | +175 (2) |
| 2022 | Nikita Kucherov (2G-6A in 7GP) | +450 (4) |
| 2023 | Sergei Bobrovsky (0.943SV% & 1.89GAA) | +190 (1) |
| 2024 | Jeremy Swayman (0.950SV% & 1.49GAA) | +1200 (2) |
Jeremy Swayman's talent was on full display against the Leafs (who drafted Ian Scott at no. 110 instead of Swayman who was drafted at no.111 in 2017). Swayze averaged an illuminating 0.950SV% and 1.49GAA in that series vs Toronto. And he's done the same against Florida stopping 38 of 39 shots for a 0.974SV% in Game 1.
If Boston is Finals bound it's a very good time to get in on Swayman Conn Smythe odds at +1200.
