A showdown between two of the NHL’s top teams is on tap in the Sunshine State tonight when the Tampa Bay Lightning welcome the Winnipeg Jets to town. Sportsbooks opened the Jets as +165 road underdogs with a total of 7 for the game.
Standout Stats
- The Lightning, who’ve won 11 of their last 12 games, are getting excellent contributions from their defense right now. Tampa Bay’s blue line has four goals and nine assists in those 12 contests, as Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak and Mikhail Sergachev each scored in the Lightning’s 5-1 victory over the Senators on Saturday.
- The Jets are starting to return to form after enduring a 1-4-1 SU slump, with Winnipeg winning each of its last two tilts ahead of tonight’s game. Expect Winnipeg to lean heavily on left-winger Nikolaj Ehlers tonight, as the 23-year-old has six goals and three assists in seven career meetings with the Bolts.
- When the Jets play on the road, high-scoring affairs tend to follow. Winnipeg has gone OVER in six of its last eight road games. The Jets are averaging 2.94 goals per game (14th in the NHL) away from home in 2018-19 while surrendering 3.13 goals per game (15th).
- Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is well on his way to earning the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top netminder. Vasilevskiy has won nine straight decisions to reach 30 wins on the year and is 10-0-2 SU in his past 12 starts. The Russian has been tabbed as the probable goalie in this one.
- Winnipeg and Tampa Bay have a habit of playing close games that have extended to overtime. Four of the previous seven matchups between the teams have gone past regulation, with the Jets topping the Lightning 5-4 in overtime thanks to a Mark Scheifele goal in their last meeting on December 16.
- The Lightning are the best home team in the NHL for a reason. Tampa Bay is a fantastic 27-5-2 SU at Amalie Arena this season, averaging a league-best 4.09 goals per game in its own barn. Tampa Bay has won seven straight home contests with an average winning margin of 2.7 goals.
My best bet for Jets-Lightning
UNDER 7 goals
Due to the offensive firepower both teams possess, it’s far from a surprise to see oddsmakers set this game with the extremely high 7-goal total. But with Vasilevskiy and Connor Hellebuyck expected to start this one, I can see this game going UNDER.
While the Jets’ dormant offense is starting to wake up, there’s a real chance they can go quiet once again at the tough Amalie Arena. You’re not going to find any value backing Tampa Bay on the moneyline tonight at -190, so unless you’re OK with the chalk, take the UNDER instead.
