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2020 Presidential Odds: Dems Unveil Articles of Impeachment, Trump Flat

2020 Presidential Odds

Unless some drama unfolds in the House of Representatives over the next week, it’s a foregone conclusion that President Donald Trump faces an impeachment trial in the Senate early next year. It’s also a foregone conclusion that this impeachment inquiry has done little to impact Trump’s odds to win the 2020 election.

Since the inquiry was announced back on September 25, his odds to win the 2020 presidential election have ranged between +120 and +130 and they check in this week at +125. The odds of the other four favorites – Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren – are relatively flat week over week, too. However, Warren is down a tick from +850 to +900 as her free fall continues.

Please check our updated 2020 election odds tracker from Bovada that shows how the presidential favorites’ chances to win have changed over the past month.

2020 Presidential Election Odds Tracker
CandidateNov. 12Nov. 21Nov. 26Dec. 5Dec. 10
Donald Trump+130+130+130+125+125
Joe Biden+600+600+550+550+550
Pete Buttigieg+1000+750+700+625+625
Bernie Sanders+1100+900+900+800+800
Elizabeth Warren+365+550+750+850+900
Michael Bloomberg+1500+2500+1600+1600+1600
Andrew Yang+2000+2200+2000+2000+1800
Hillary Clinton+2800+2500+2500+3000+3000
Nikki Haley+5000+6000+4000+5000+4500
Mike Pence+5000+5500+4000+4000+6000
Amy KlobucharN/A+8000+5000+5000+6000
Tulsi Gabbard+7000+5000+5000+6000+6000

Odds as of December 10 at Bovada

How to bet on the 2020 U.S. presidential election

Pelosis Political Press Conference Strategy

On December 10, shortly after 9 a.m., Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, surrounded by Democratic leaders, unveiled two articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump. Those articles allege abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The House Judiciary Committee will likely vote on the articles of impeachment later this week before a full House of Representatives vote decides whether the president faces a Senate trial.

Roughly one hour after that press conference, Pelosi, surrounded by party colleagues, announced that the House Democrats and White House had agreed on a United States-Mexico-Canada trade deal otherwise known as USMCA. So, why – on the same day you announced two articles of impeachment against the president – would you give his administration an economic win?

In short, it’s politics, baby!

One of the Republican talking points is that the “do-nothing Democrats” are so focused on impeachment that they can’t walk and chew gum at the same time. The fact that Pelosi announced this deal on the same day removes that talking point bullet and, according to the Speaker, it’s a much better deal than NAFTA and much different than the original trade plan proposed by the administration. One report stated that Pelosi said “we ate their lunch” as it pertained to administration concessions to get the left side of the aisle to approve this deal.

Speaker Pelosi did admit President Trump will take credit for the economic win and, with the bipartisan support on anything these days a rarity, the Speaker of the House is OK with that, too.

Why Trump Could Win in 2020 (+125)

The impeachment inquiry has lasted nearly three months and when I look at President Trump’s odds, all I can think of is this clip from “Jurassic Park.”

Does anybody care? And by anybody, I mean enough voters to move the needle come the 2020 election.

If bookmakers were truly worried that Trump’s odds to win re-election were hurt by the inquiry or pending trial, these odds would have swung below +130, right? They haven’t. They’ve ping-ponged between +120 and +130 for three months and he’s on the verge of a Senate trial and the odds suggest there’s no reason for Trump backers to panic.

The concern on the left side of the aisle all along was that an impeachment inquiry and trial would fire up Trump’s base supporters in the likelihood that he’s found not guilty by a Republican-majority Senate. The House Democrats have embraced this calculated risk and hope the voting public – on both sides – takes a second to digest Trump’s actions and the impeachment charges before casting their vote at the ballot box next fall. However, it’s one thing to hope and another thing for Trump’s most avid supporters to think a Senate trial is anything but a sham political tactic.

Aside from a passionate base, Trump’s going to lean on his economic success over the past four years. As a whole, monthly job numbers have been strong and although it’s not an exact reflection of the overall economic strength of the country, the president will continue to tout new stock market highs.

Now that all signs point to a new United States-Mexico-Canada trade deal, his No. 1 economic priority ahead of next year’s election is getting a trade deal done with China. If both sides agree to terms, the economic win will likely (no pun) trump anything else he’s done during his first term.

However, one thing remains unclear. How will voting Americans know and/or trust that a deal with China is good for them, their families and the overall U.S. economy? Because you know, if and when the deal is done, the United States and China will both boast that they “won” the trade war.

A strong economy and Trump’s 2016 base returning to vote are his two main pillars supporting a 2020 victory.

Despite the high probability that Trump faces a trial in the Senate, he remains the heavy favorite to be the Republican presidential nominee next year. Why? For one, it’s unlikely the Senate removes him from office if he is impeached. Two, the Republican party needs to appear united and stand behind their guy. It is interesting, however, that for the first time in weeks, Trump’s odds to be the Republican nominee dipped.

Odds Donald Trump Is Republican Nominee in 2020
OptionDec. 5Dec. 10
Yes-600-500
No+400+350

Odds as of December 10 at BetOnline

Why Joe Biden Could Win (+550)

The three things former vice-president Joe Biden have going for him are experience, moderate-Democratic policies and the theory that he could hang with Trump come debate time.

Isn’t it interesting that Biden gets hammered when he struggles to articulate his message, but when the president makes an audible or social media gaffe, it’s just been accepted as the norm? Should Biden and Trump square off in the 2020 election, it’ll be fascinating to see how this evolves. Will Biden continue to take flak or will he and Trump be held to the same standard when it comes debate time?

The most recent Monmouth national poll has Biden ahead of Bernie Sanders by five points and Pete Buttigieg by 18. According to that poll’s findings, 56 percent of voters remain interested in a Democratic candidate who could beat President Trump vs 36 percent of those polled supporting somebody they completely agree with on issues, but who would have a harder time winning. This polling illustrates why Biden continues to do well nationally.

Why Pete Buttigieg Could Win (+625)

Here’s my theory on why Buttigieg has the third-best odds to win the 2020 election. With most of his campaign resources focused on early primary states, there’s a good chance Mayor Pete wins in Iowa and/or New Hampshire, which would help set a tone that he should be the Democratic nominee over Biden. These early primary wins are priced into the odds. So, if you missed out on backing Buttigieg when his odds were outside 10-to-1, don’t chase at +625.

After Iowa and New Hampshire, Buttigieg will need to focus on the youth and African-American vote. If we’re being frank, most reports suggest that Democratic voters in the southern states will have issues supporting and voting for an openly gay man. 

The good news for Buttigieg is most progressive young voters may latch on if they think Biden is too old for the job and that his message doesn’t resonate with them and their peers.

Why Bernie Sanders (+800) or Elizabeth Warren Could Win (+900)

The Medicare-for-all duo will continue to trail President Trump and Joe Biden unless their policies start to connect with more voters and their debate performances improve. Lies, damn lies and statistics be damned, both Warren and Sanders could very easily just drift in doldrums of “what-if” for the next six months before a Democratic nominee is named.

For Sanders, he’s stayed on script year after year after year and that in itself may be a problem. Forget a “blue wave” come next primary season, he needs a “progressive wave” of support to jump the other favorites. With Sanders and Warren running, we’ll truly learn if the United States is becoming more progressive or leaning more moderate come Super Tuesday.

It’ll also act as a gauge as to whether or not these two progressives have a shot in 2020 or, at least for Warren, 2024. Following a heart attack, this has to be Sanders’ last political campaign, right?

With all the impeachment and Senate trial chatter, odds that the Democratic party wins the 2020 election have dipped into minus money at -130 ahead of the Republican party that checks in at +110 this week.

Odds to win the 2020 united states presidential election
PartyOdds
Democratic Party-130
Republican Party+110

Odds as of December 10 at BetOnline

Here are the updated odds to win the 2020 election from  Bovada.

Odds to win the 2020 Election
OptionOdds
Donald Trump+125
Joe Biden+550
Pete Buttigieg+625
Bernie Sanders+800
Elizabeth Warren+900
Michael Bloomberg+1600
Andrew Yang+1800
Hillary Clinton+3000
Nikki Haley+4500
Mike Pence+6000
Amy Klobuchar+6000
Tulsi Gabbard+6000
Michelle Obama+8000
Mitt Romney+10000

Odds as of December 10 at  Bovada