John Fetterman (left) is favored in the Pennsylvania Senate Race Odds

Pennsylvania Senate Race Odds: Democrat Fetterman Narrow Favorite

One of the more popular rhetorical questions posed by constituents toward political candidates is “Are they fit for office?” The term “fit” can embrace several meanings, from experience and intelligence to black-and-white health of the person.

While two of the top three presidential favorites are pushing 80 years old and have their cognitive health questions regularly, Pennsylvania Senate race odds between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz are being impacted by doctor notes less than two months before voters head to the polls.

Pennsylvania Senate Race Odds

Odds To Win The Pennsylvania Senate Race
John Fetterman (D)-200
Dr. Mehmet Oz (R)+150

Odds as of Sept. 28 via Sportsbook

Despite suffering a stroke back in May, Democratic candidate John Fetterman’s odds have improved significantly since late July. Fetterman’s odds to win the Pennsylvania Senate seat were -150 on July 22 but have grown to -200 as of September 28.

This carries an implied probability of 66.7 percent to win. On the flip side, Dr. Oz’s odds to win shrank from +110 to +150 in a little over two months, which hands him a 4-in-10 chance of pulling off the upset.

Bet On The PA Senate Race Here

Fetterman & Oz Health Updates

Just to recap, 53-year-old Pennsylvania Senate Democratic nominee John Fetterman suffered a stroke on May 13, 2022 – just four days before the state’s primary, which he won in a landslide. He later admitted, after doctors implanted a pacemaker with a defibrillator, that he almost died.

Fetterman returned to the campaign trail in early August but has provided the media limited access as he works through speech therapy sessions and works on regaining full cognitive abilities.

After agreeing to just one live in-person debate with Dr. Oz, two major newspaper editorial boards requested full access to Fetterman’s doctors and medical records. The Democratic nominee’s campaign has not agreed to this, but in an effort to keep “fitness for office” headlines in the 24-hour news cycle, Dr. Oz volunteered his immediately. The 62-year-old was reported to be in “excellent health” in an annual checkup by his doctor.

Fetterman’s response to Oz’s call for full transparency was this statement:

“In June, I released a letter from my doctor where he clearly stated that I am fit to serve,” Fetterman said. “Dr. Oz built his entire career by lying to people about health. I trust my actual doctors over the opinion of a charlatan who played one on TV.”

The war of words will only get spicier from here ahead of the October 25 debate.

Oz Endorsements

Dr. Mehmet Oz won the Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary by the slimmest of margins, but this endorsement by former president Donald Trump in early April probably helped nudge him over the edge:

“The Great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has a tremendous opportunity to Save America by electing the brilliant and well-known Dr. Mehmet Oz for the United States Senate,” Trump said.

Trump went on to compare hosting a television show to political polling as to illustrate how popular you are with the people.

More recently, Philadelphia’s Fraternal Order of Police union backed Dr. Oz over Fetterman.

“We need, and this is very key, we need to have Dr. Oz in this position to support our law enforcement,” union president John McNesby said. “That’s the last thin line that the community has to be able to keep themselves safe.”

This is noteworthy because the FOP has historically backed Democratic nominees but was turned off by Fetterman’s more progressive policing policies.

Last, but certainly not least is this hot take from former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich:

As subtle as a brick through a window, Mr. Speaker. This isn’t even endorsing Oz, it’s a dog whistle toward those who are considering voting against Fetterman. Politics can be ugly and here’s a great example.

Pennsylvania Senate Bottom Line

At FiveThirtyEight, Fetterman possesses a seven-point lead over Oz. Most pundits believe a large swath of Pennsylvania voters have already made up their mind on who they are voting for, which helps lock in polling data a little more securely than 2016 and – to some extent – 2020.  It’s Fetterman’s race to lose should his health challenges cause hiccups throughout October and/or during the lone debate.

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