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President Trump Senate Impeachment Trial Enters Second Week

President Trump Senate Impeachment Trial Odds

The Senate’s impeachment trial of President Donald Trump has entered its second week. In case you missed last week’s opening salvo, House managers spent 24 hours, spread out over three days, presenting their opening arguments for why Trump should be found guilty of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress and be removed from office.

The president’s legal defense team began their opening arguments Saturday morning and, with the same 24 hours to work with, were expected to wrap late Monday or early Tuesday. Once the defense rests, senators will have up to 16 hours to ask questions of both the prosecution and defense. However, Senate rules agreed to before the start of the trial state that these questions will be written and not blurted out, as senators are not permitted to speak during the trial.

They’re also not allowed to bring coffee into the Senate chamber, which in itself seems especially criminal. I digress.

After the Q&A session, senators will vote whether to allow for additional witness testimony and/or more documents entered in as evidence. Two days ago, this upcoming vote appeared to fall on the right side of party lines, Republicans would vote against witness testimony and new evidence and it would be a huge win for Trump’s defense. However, the New York Times reported Sunday that it had received a leaked manuscript of a soon-to-be-released book by President Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton. The most damning information to come from the leak is that Bolton was reportedly told by Trump to freeze hundreds of millions of dollars in security assistance until Ukraine agreed to investigate Trump’s political rivals, including former vice-president Joe Biden.

This revelation – if true – blows up Trump’s legal defense argument that the president’s phone call and conversations with Ukraine’s president were “perfectly fine” and there was no quid pro quo.

As you can imagine, when the senators vote whether or not to call any witnesses to testify, the House is going to demand the Senate hear from Mr. Bolton. As of Monday morning, it sounds like the scales may have tipped in that direction. However, if we’ve learned one thing during the Trump administration it’s that the most recent bombshell is either the tip of an iceberg or a well-done nothing-burger. We should know the answer to Bolton’s impact by the end of this week, but one thing is for certain: this trial will have a third week and leak on into February and Democratic primary season.


President Trump Impeachment Trial Archives

For just the third time in American history, the president of the United States has been impeached after the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives voted 230-197 to charge President Donald Trump with abuse of power and 229-198 for obstruction of Congress.

While it’s not the end of a long and politically hostile road that began back in late September, it does close the book on some futures tickets. With the way the impeachment proceedings played out, it’s hard to imagine that early odds leaned toward President Trump NOT being impeached.

Bettors who made a wager on September 29 could get “Yes, President Trump will be impeached in his first term” at +125 at online bookmaker Bovada. The day before the impeachment vote, those same “Yes, he will be impeached” odds had skyrocketed to -1100 at the same book.

Impeachment Odds Tracker: Will Donald Trump Be Impeached during His First Term?
OptionSept. 29Oct. 23Oct. 29Nov. 5Nov. 18Dec. 17
Yes+125-180-170OTB-210-1100
No-155+135+130OTB+155+575

Trump Impeached, Now What?

Now that President Trump has been impeached, most believe that preparations for a Senate trial begin immediately and that it would start in early 2020. However, following the impeachment vote, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said she may delay sending the articles of impeachment over to the Senate until she is guaranteed assurances of a fair hearing. By holding the articles back, Pelosi could delay the start of a Senate trial indefinitely.

To reiterate, given the way Republicans have fervently defended Trump throughout and with Republicans possessing a 53-46 advantage in the Senate, it’s unlikely the president is removed from office. In order to remove him, every Democrat along with 20 Republican colleagues would need to vote “YES”.

So, it’s no surprise that odds Trump is NOT removed from office via Senate trial opened at -5000 or 98.04 percent implied probability. Odds that the president resigns from office voluntarily opened at +500.

Unless somebody flips within his administration or another whistleblower comes forward and uproots the current defense, Trump’s odds to win the 2020 election will continue to improve as they have the past few weeks.

Will the Senate Vote to Remove President Donald Trump From Office?
OptionOdds
No-5000
Yes+2000

Odds as of December 26 at BetOnline

Will Trump Resign from Office?
OptionOdds
No-1200
Yes+600

Odds as of December 26 at Bovada

In addition to odds that Trump is convicted or resigns from office, bookmakers have set prop odds on various Senate trial outcomes.

How many Senate Republicans Vote to Remove Trump From Office?
OptionOdds
UNDER 1.5-300
OVER 1.5+200

Odds as of December 19 at BetOnline

Will Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell move to dismiss the articles of impeachment?
OptionOdds
No-200
Yes+150

Odds as of December 19 at BetOnline

Will Susan Collins vote to Remove Trump from Office?
OptionOdds
No-300
Yes+200

Odds as of December 19 at BetOnline

Will Lisa Murkowski vote to Remove Trump from Office?
OptionOdds
Yes+200
No-300

Odds as of December 19 at BetOnline

Will Mitt Romney vote to Remove Trump from Office?
OptionOdds
No-150
Yes+110

Odds as of December 19 at BetOnline


Trump Impeachment Inquiry Timeline Review

Back on September 29, odds President Trump would be impeached by the House opened at +125 at online shop Bovada or 44.4 percent implied probability before soaring to -210 or 67.7 percent implied probability on November 18.

Will Donald Trump be Impeached during His First Term?
WinnerSept. 29Oct. 23Oct. 29Nov. 5Nov. 18Dec. 17
Yes+125-180-170OTB-210-1100
No-155+135+130OTB+155+575

READ: Articles of Impeachment Against Trump

Impeachment Inquiry 101

In case you’re reading this for the first time or are unfamiliar with United States government, if Trump is impeached, he’ll face a Senate trial. The members of the Senate will vote on whether to remove the president from office, with the vote requiring a two-thirds majority. We’re not there yet, but with the House Judiciary Committee questioning witnesses on a regular basis, once their impeachment inquiry wraps, it’s more than likely Trump will, indeed, be impeached before the 2020 presidential election.

The basis of the impeachment inquiry is that, according to a whistleblower’s report, Trump engaged in a quid pro quo where he would withhold foreign aid to Ukraine unless their government investigated alleged corruption tied to his political rivals, including Democratic candidate and former vice-president Joe Biden. There were also concerns tied to 2016 election interference.