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Trump Impeachment Odds: Senate Highly Unlikely to Convict

Senate unlikely to convict when it comes to the Trump Impeachment odds.

Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, made history in January as the first leader of the U.S. to be impeached twice.

Trump was first impeached in late 2019 and was acquitted in February 2020. The now former president was impeached again on January 13, 2021, after being accused of incitement of insurrection for the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6 following his attempts to have the 2020 election results overturned.

Online sportsbooks such as BetOnline have released Trump impeachment odds for the trial beginning in early February. The Trump impeachment odds on whether the Senate will convict him for incitement have the “No” option heavily favored at -5000 with “Yes” coming back at +1200.

Trump Impeachment Odds

Will Senate Convict Donald Trump for Incitement?
OutcomeOdds
No-5000
Yes+1200

Odds as of February 9 at BetOnline

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That said, there are other prop options for Trump’s impeachment trial that are offering more betting value for you to wager on for this case, which I will outline below.

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Will the Senate Convict Trump?

This impeachment comes on the heels of the horrific scene of the Capitol being stormed on January 6, following the words of Trump at a nearby rally: “If you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.”

When the impeachment was put forth to the House of Representatives, currently a Democratic majority, the vote passed with 232 in favor and 197 against, which approved Trump’s second impeachment.

He is the third president to be impeached, with Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton preceding Trump. This is the fourth impeachment in U.S. history, with the previous three trials resulting in the presidents being acquitted.

How Can Trump be Convicted?

For the 45th POTUS to be convicted in his second impeachment trial, there would have to be two-thirds support from the Senate for it to go through. While the Senate is controlled by the Democrats, when it comes to voting, it is a 50-50 split between Democrats and Republicans, so there would need to be a swing of 17 Republican votes for the conviction to occur.

There was a test vote on January 26 with five Senate Republicans voting against the dismissal, which points to Trump being acquitted again. This furthers the Donald Trump impeachment odds of whether he will be convicted with the No at an overwhelming -5000.

What Happens if Trump is Convicted?

If Trump was in fact convicted of incitement, he would be removed from office, though that already occurred when Joe Biden took over on January 20, and another vote could occur that could prevent the former president from holding future office with a majority Senate vote (51 votes).

The latter part is important as Trump sits third in the 2024 U.S. presidential election odds and, obviously, that would change if he is convicted, though that is unlikely.

Trump Impeachment Odds: Where’s the Value?

When looking at the various Trump impeachment odds available, the one prop that I believe is offering some betting value is “How many senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by April 29?” with 55 or 56 coming in as the favorite at +180.

As mentioned above, there was a test vote in late January with five Republicans voting against a dismissal, which would put the number at 55 votes for conviction. A little more juice offering at 53 or 54 senators at +210 is also an option if a vote or two swings back the other way.

How Many Senators will vote to convict Donald trump on Incitement by April 29?
OutcomeOdds
55 or 56+180
53 or 54+210
51 or 52+800
57 or 58+800
50 or fewer+1600
67 or more+1600
59 or 60+2000
61 or 62+5000
63 or 64+10000
65 or 66+10000

Odds as of February 9 at Bovada

How many Senators will vote to Convict Donald Trump on Incitement?
OutcomeOdds
UNDER 54.5 Senators-140
OVER 54.5 Senators+100

Odds as of February 9 at BetOnline

When Will the Conviction Vote Occur?

The other prop that, in my opinion, is a lock is “When will the Senate vote to convict Trump on Incitement?” with the “after February 15, 2021” coming in at -400 and likely to occur. The Trump impeachment odds of -400 on whether the vote will happen by February 15 means that you would have to bet $400 to profit $100. The -400 betting line also represents an implied win probability of 80 percent according to our sports betting calculator.

When Will the Senate vote to Convict Trump on Incitement?
OutcomeOdds
After February 15, 2021-400
On or Before February 15, 2021+250

Odds as of February 9 at BetOnline

With the trial beginning on February 9, both the prosecution and defense have eight hours to make their cases, which will chew up a couple of days, followed by further questioning before the vote. Additionally, when has the government ever been quick to act on anything – try going to the DMV! My guess is the vote on conviction will occur at least a week after February 9, which puts us at February 16 and our prop wins.