We’re into the next stage of the UEFA Champions League. With the group stage now over, 16 squads have been cut from the most prestigious club competition in the world.
It is no surprise at this point that Erling Haaland is at the top of the oddsboard to win the Golden Boot even though he’s two goals behind current leaders Kylian Mbappe and Mohamed Salah. Haaland has won the Champions League top scorer title before and he and his team seemingly have an easy path to at least the quarterfinals.
How about the rest of the competition? Can anyone challenge Haaland for top scorer honors?
2022 Odds To Win Champions League Golden Boot
|Erling Haaland||Manchester City||+185|
|Kylian Mbappe||Paris Saint-Germain||+200|
|Lionel Messi||Paris Saint-Germain||+2200|
|Vinicius Jr.||Real Madrid||+3300|
|Sadio Mane||Bayern Munich||+4000|
|Jude Bellingham||Borussia Dortmund||+6600|
Odds as of November 21 at Betway
Champions League Top Scorer: Haaland Has Easier Path
Erling Haaland finds himself two goals back of leaders Kylian Mbappe (PSG) and Mohamed Salah (Liverpool). But with all due respect to Leipzig, Man City has an easier path to the quarterfinals than either PSG, who faces Bayern Munich, or Liverpool, who is up against Real Madrid.
There’s a real chance that neither PSG nor Liverpool survives the Round of 16. When looking at Betway’s UEFA Champions League odds to advance, Liverpool vs Real Madrid is effectively a pick with the Reds at -125 and Real at -105. When it comes to PSG and Bayern, the German side is favored to advance at -135 to PSG’s +105.
Meanwhile, Haaland’s City is at -700 to advance, representing an implied 87.5 percent chance to move on per our odds calculator. Getting an extra two games (at least) is a massive advantage for Haaland. And look, he has put the ball in the Leipzig net a lot. In eight games against Red Bull Leipzig, Haaland has six goals. He could very well find himself level with Mbappe and Salah through the Round of 16 and with the quarters still to look forward to.
Champions League Top Scorer: Best Long Shots
Mohamed Salah - Liverpool (+300)
I know I just spent a lot of digital ink praising Haaland’s chances of overcoming his two-goal gap to Salah (and Mbappe). But we’ve got to give some respect to Salah and his chances to win this title.
He’s currently tied for the lead with seven goals in the competition. In the Premier League, he has found his footing with five goals over his last six matches.
Real Madrid looks vulnerable at the moment. Over their last five games, they’ve gone 2-1-2 with losses to Rayo Vallecano and RB Leipzig. We already know that Liverpool is favored to get through Real Madrid, even if just slightly favored. If the Reds are to move on, Mo Salah will have played a big part in it.
Giovanni Simeone - Napoli (+6600)
Simeone has a lot of ground to make up with four goals to the current leaders’ seven. A three-goal deficit isn’t great with the knockout stage of the tournament now upon us. But Simeone has some solid underlying stats that back his claim.
His 1.43 goals per 90 is third in the competition behind Erling Haaland and teammate Giacomo Raspadori. And his 0.99 expected goals per 90 is also third in the competition after Haaland (1.36 xG/90) and Liverpool’s Darwin Nunez (1.13 xG/90).
Simeone hasn’t scored since a 3-0 win over Rangers in the Champions League, but you know he’s due to pop a few.
Last 10 Champions League Golden Boot Winners
|2021-22||Karim Benzema||Real Madrid*||15|
|2020-21||Erling Haaland||Borussia Dortmund||10|
|2019-20||Robert Lewandowski||Bayern Munich*||15|
|2017-18||Cristiano Ronaldo||Real Madrid*||15|
|2016-17||Cristiano Ronaldo||Real Madrid*||12|
|2015-16||Cristiano Ronaldo||Real Madrid*||16|
|2014-15||Cristiano Ronaldo/Lionel Messi/Neymar||Real Madrid/Barcelona*/Barcelona*||10|
|2013-14||Cristiano Ronaldo||Real Madrid*||17|
|2012-13||Cristiano Ronaldo||Real Madrid||12|
From 2012-13 through 2017-18, Cristiano Ronaldo dominated this competition. He won the top scorer award six straight times while scoring a ridiculous 82 goals. We won’t see that version of Ronaldo again, so count yourself lucky if you were able to see it.
Champions League Golden Boot FAQ
Who is favored to win the 2022 Champions League Golden Boot?
Manchester City's Erling Haaland is currently the favorite to win the award with odds at +185 to be the Champions League's top scorer in 2022-23.
Who won the last Champions League Golden Boot?
Frenchman and recent Ballon D'or winner Karem Benzema was the Champions League's top scorer in 2021-22 with 15 goals for Real Madrid.
Who has the most Champions League Golden Boots?
Cristiano Ronaldo has the most Champions League Golden Boots at seven:
Lionel Messi has six Champions League Golden Boots.