Manchester City won their first-ever Champions League trophy in 2023. It was the culmination of a nearly two-decade-long process when new owners took over in 2008. Now can they pull a back-to-back Champions League? It's only been done once since 1980.
Step one is getting out of the group. Something City is expected to do easily. At -909, oddsmakers are giving Pep's side a 91% implied chance to win Group G.
There's 0 value better on ManCity to win their group, but looking at the other eight groups, can we find value somewhere?
Champions League Group Stage Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | -208 |
| Manchester United | +186 |
| Galatasaray | +1352 |
| FC Copenhagen | +6070 |
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | -227 |
| Sevilla | +399 |
| PSV Eindhoven | +703 |
| Lens | +899 |
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid | -217 |
| Napoli | +236 |
| Union Berlin | +1203 |
| Sporting Braga | +1568 |
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Inter Milan | -118 |
| Benfica | +240 |
| Real Sociedad | +506 |
| RB Salzburg | +814 |
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | -164 |
| Lazio | +302 |
| Feyenoord | +604 |
| Celtic | +906 |
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Paris St Germain | +111 |
| Newcastle | +226 |
| AC Milan | +503 |
| Dortmund | +553 |
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Manchester City | -909 |
| Leipzig | +609 |
| Red Star Belgrade | +6700 |
| Young Boys Bern | +6700 |
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Barcelona | -303 |
| Porto | +302 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | +2013 |
| Royal Antwerp | +2214 |
Champions League Group Odds: Three Value Picks
Napoli | Group C (+236)
Real Madrid are always expected to do well in this competition. Every year it's win or bust for Real. But they struggled in a weak group last year and then got trampled over by Manchester City in the Semi-Finals.
Now, I know Napoli didn't make it to the Semis last year, but they weren't far off being eliminated by Milan thanks to a Zambo Anguissa red card in the quarters.
Napoli have started the season well with two straight wins and a maximum of six points on the year.
It's hard to build a case off of analytics for any side because the season is still in its infancy. But looking at last year's numbers, specifically in the Champions League, Napoli held the highest expected goal rate per 90 at 2.52. City were the only other side above 2.00 xG/90.
If they can reproduce that kind of offense they're going to give Real a run for their money in the group and may even take it if Madrid slips even a little.
Newcastle | Group F (+226)
When I went to find the odds I didn't think I'd see Newcastle with the second-best odds in Group F. I thought there would be far more value in taking Eddie Howe's men to win what I'm calling the Group of Death.
PSG is favored to take it, but Les Parisien have been....mediocre this year with two draws and a win in Ligue 1.
Last year, Newcastle was the second-best team in the Premier League in basically every category outside of points (sadly for Newcastle, that's the category that matters the most).
The Geordies didn't lose big names from their squad in the transfer window and strengthened well with Sandro Tolinali coming in from AC Milan.
I have little confidence in PSG. So if it comes down to Paris or Newcastle I'll take the Magpies.
Inter Milan | Group D (-118)
Inter Milan were runners-up to Man City in the Champions League last season. And have started the year with a perfect 2-0-0 record while scoring four goals and allowing none.
While their group has a lot of quality I'm surprised to see Inter's odds at only -118 to win the group.
Real Sociedad has fallen off hard from last year. They've yet to win in three La Liga games. Benfica sit fifth with six points from a possible nine on the year. Salzburg is the team in the best form with five straight wins in the Austrian Bundesliga. But Salzburg has only exited the group stage of the Champions League once. Ever.
Milan wins this group and at -118, that's still $8.47 of profit on a $10 bet!
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