Back-to-back awful weeks for me with my EPL picks. I've lost all three of my bets twice now. Though I'm still pleased with the picks I made, specifically last week.
I said United would win at +135 on the moneyline. It should have hit if not for a stupid collapse seconds after taking the lead. Classic Ten Hag United.
Before getting to this week's bets here are my three picks from last weekend and the results:
| Pick | Odds | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea -1.5 | -125 | L |
| Man United ML | +135 | L |
| Man City ML | -105 | L |
| Overall Record | 9-9 | |
| Profits (Units) | +3.94 | |
English Premier League Expert Picks Matchweek 32
Fulham vs Newcastle
The Game: Fulham vs Newcastle United, Saturday, April 6, 10 AM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | -150 | O3.5 (+115) | -0.5 (+115) |
| Newcastle | +195 | U3.5 (-145) | +0.5 (-155) |
| Draw | +310 |
Pick: Newcastle ML (+195)
Oddsmakers believe that Fulham's strong home record and the Toonie's poor away record will be predictive of the upcoming tie. To me, each side's record when the fixtures get...congested is why I'm taking Newcastle.
Fulham has the second-worst points per game rate (0.9) with three days of rest this year (their record is 2-3-5). I know the Cottagers have four days between games before this one, but 3 or 4 is splitting hairs. Meanwhile, Newcastle are 5-6-4 with three days between games.
Brighton vs Arsenal
The Game: Brighton vs Arsenal, Saturday, April 6, 12:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | +450 | O2.5 (-140) | +0.5 (+130) |
| Arsenal | -165 | U2.5 (+115) | -0.5 (-180) |
| Draw | +320 |
Pick: O2.5 Goals (-140)
I'm all in on the OVER in this contest. I get that Brighton has been better at covering the UNDER with three of their last four games going below 1.5 goals. But in their last 12 games, it's 7-5 vs. the OVER.
For Arsenal's last 12 games, they've seen the total go OVER 2.5 goals a ridiculous eight times.
In the last five matchups between these two sides, the total has gone OVER 2.5 goals three times. The last meeting was a 2-0 win for Arsenal but saw a total of 3 expected goals. So, it should have gone OVER.
Again. I'm all in on the OVER.
Manchester United vs Liverpool
The Game: Manchester United vs Liverpool, Sunday, April 7, 10:30 AM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | +360 | O3.5 (-120) | +1.5 (-190) |
| Liverpool | -160 | U3.5 (+100) | -1.5 (+140) |
| Draw | +380 |
Pick: Liverpool ML (-160)
We have an epic rematch between bitter rivals that played less than a month ago in the FA Cup. Where United claimed a clutch 4-3 win over Liverpool at Old Trafford. Oddsmakers do not believe they will repeat that performance with a 22% implied odd. I wildly agree.
Going back to fixture congestion records. United are 8-1-5 (1.79 pts/game) when getting three days of rest this season. Meanwhile, Liverpool are an outstanding 14-5-2 (2.24 pts/game).
Outside of their record within the context of this game, United are 1-1-3 in their last five compared to (should be) EPL title favorites Liverpool who are 4-1-0 in their last five.
Oh, and Klopp holds a commanding 3-1-1 record against Ten Hag.
Liverpool are in good form and play well when the fixtures are congested. The opposite is true for United. That's why I'm backing the Reds (not my YNWA knuckle tattoo).
