Israel Adesanya is favored over Sean Strickland at UFC 293

Adesanya vs Strickland Odds & Picks: Not As Mismatched As It Seems

Israel Adesanya headlines UFC 293 this Saturday in Sydney Australia, this time matching up against American heel Sean Strickland.

These two have traded verbal jabs over the years, and now they can finally punch out their differences over five rounds for the UFC's middleweight champion. Heavyweights Tai Tuivasa and Alexander Volkov will serve as the co-main event before Adesanya-Strickland gets going.

Adesanya, who will have the home crowd behind him, is currently a -600 favorite over Strickland.

Israel Adesanya vs Sean Strickland Betting Odds

Adesanya vs Strickland Odds
Israel Adesanya-600
Sean Strickland+450

Odds as of September 8

These odds have come a long way from when Adesanya opened as a -350 favorite.

Per our odds calculator, Adesanya's -600 status awards him an 85.71% implied chance of victory, with a $100 bet paying out $116.67. At +450, Strickland owns an 18.18% chance and a $100 bet cashes $550. 

Adesanya vs Strickland Betting Preview: Can Sean back up all his trash talk?

I cannot wait for Strickland on the mic as a pay-per-view headliner. But once the fight starts, will he be in too deep? Let's see.

How Adesanya Wins

I'm convinced Adesanya can dust Strickland in a pure kickboxing match. Sean plays pretty good defense, but his stance is dull and flat-footed. Since he's always so straight up, he has a hard time when he's forced backward. That's where Adesanya's length is a big factor.

Adesanya must throw first. His long legs could open an excellent kicking game, and as long as he's composed, he'll calculate a window to break through Strickland's guard. "The Last Style Bender" has the upper hand in this fight.

How Strickland Wins

Strickland is a more interesting fighter than his resume suggests. He gets fairly criticized for a lack of sting on his punches, but his performance vs Abus Magomedov opened my eyes to how he gets things done.

He's basically all boxing, rarely using his lower half for strikes (that'll put him at a disadvantage vs Adesanya, who loves to kick) and all his offense starts with the jab. Strickland will jab, jab, jab until his opponent gets drained and he ramps things up.

Strickland is perfect for the five-round title format as he often starts slow and isn't afraid to lose a round if it means building a foundation. He's a hard-headed S.O.B. and he'll hang in there with Izzy for a while. In the end, though, Strickland is just too basic with his attacks. Adesanya has far more upside in this bout. 

Adesanya vs Strickland Betting Pick

While the thought of Strickland winning the belt is hilarious, it's not impossible. Sean certainly deserves far greater than an 18% implied chance of victory.

I don't envision this bout being super entertaining as both Adesanya and Strickland can slow fights to a crawl. Ultimately, I think Izzy gets it done, but over the course of 25 minutes.

Pick: Adesanya by decision (+150); Fight to go the distance (+125)