Paulo Costa is an underdog vs Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 294

Chimaev vs Costa Odds & Picks: A Violent Stoppage At UFC 294?

Khamzat Chimaev vs Paulo Costa? In Abu Dhabi? Sign me up.

These two monstrous middleweights will punch out their differences on Oct. 21 when they fight in the co-main slot at UFC 294, an event headlined by Islam Makhachev and Charles Oliveira.

The three-round Chimaev-Costa fight will be hot and hard-hitting, but the odds favor "Borz." Chimaev as a -375 favorite over the Brazilian Costa.

Khamzat Chimaev vs Paulo Costa Odds

Chimaev vs Costa Odds
Khamzat Chimaev-375
Paulo Costa+290

Odds as of Sept. 26

Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Chimaev at -334 pays out $129.94. The same $100 on Costa at +290 nets $390.

UFC 294: Chimaev vs Costa Betting Preview

These guys are both clowns outside of the cage, but they're savages when the doors close. And each guy dominates in a different way. 

Here's the betting breakdown for if you're keen on Chimaev or Costa.

How To Bet Costa

It's been five years since "The Eraser" actually erased somebody (a 2018 KO win vs Uriah Hall). Costa is a slugger; he's strong as an ox; and has improved his gas tank and wrestling abilities.

But will Paulo be the first guy to beat Chimaev? Probably not. Can he knock him down and make this close? For sure.

I think Khamzat will stand and bang (instead of wrestling, believe it or not), so that opens a window for Costa. If you like the Brazilian, bet him as a straight-up underdog, but don't be afraid to sprinkle a bet on Costa by decision. Anything can happen when the judges get involved.

How To Bet Chimaev

It's been a while (nearly a year, to be exact) since Chimaev has graced the UFC Octagon. But if you strain your memory enough, you can picture his easy win over Kevin Holland at UFC 282. It was an immediate takedown and then a pass into a dominant position for a submission. Case closed.

Chimaev always has the option to go nuclear and crater people with his wrestling, but my gut tells me he'll want to punish Costa in a different way. Look for Khamzat to toss his guard up high and snap off punches and kicks. Think back to that war vs Gilbert Burns at UFC 273.

This Chimaev vs Costa bout will get violent. I'll recommend betting Chimaev to win inside the distance, and you can lengthen your odds by wagering Khamzat to win by KO/TKO.

Chimaev vs Costa Pick

I love Khamzat inside the distance as my final, safest bet. Borz is a better fighter with more dimensions to his game. I think Costa has a better chance than his +290 odds suggest, but I'll be all aboard the Khamzat train ahead of UFC 294.

Pick: Chimaev inside the distance (TBD); Value bet on Chimaev by KO/TKO

Back to Top