Jon Jones (left) is favored vs Stipe Miocic at UFC 295

Jones vs Miocic Odds & Picks: A Fight For The Ages At UFC 295

We’ve waited a long time for this fight.

The fight is booked and Jon Jones will finally fight Stipe Miocic for the UFC heavyweight title. This battle between two MMA legends will headline UFC 295 on November 11 at New York City's Madison Square Garden.

Jones is a -425 favorite in the odds vs Miocic.

The steep betting line is justified. Stipe is now 40 years old, and Jones just annihilated Ciryl Gane in his heavyweight debut, it's easy to see why "Bones" earns so much respect from the public. 

Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic Odds

Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic Odds
Jon Jones-425
Stipe Miocic+325

Odds as of August 22

Per our odds calculator, Jones' -425 status equates to a win probability of 80.95%, and a $100 bet on him pays $123.53. Miocic gets a 23.53% chance and a $100 bet yields $425. 

Jones vs Miocic Tale Of The Tape

FighterJon JonesStipe Miocic
Record27-1 (21-1 UFC)20-4 (14-4 UFC)
Avg. Fight Time14:5311:11
Sig. Strikes Per Minute4.294.82
Sig. Strikes Absorbed Per Minute2.223.82
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes1.931.86
Takedown Accuracy45%34%
Takedown Defense95%68%

Jones vs Miocic Betting Preview: Who will win at UFC 295?

The Jones vs Miocic odds tell one story, but is there in each fighter's style that gives them an edge? Let's have a peek.

How Jones Wins

Jones possesses elite an elite Octagon presence. His long reach freaks opponents out, and he often ends up pressing his foes to the back of the cage. Once he's there, Jones can open up with the striking (he threw some good leg kicks vs Gane) or engage the wrestling.

Stipe, like Gane, is bouncy on his feet and capable of fighting off the back foot. He'll be comfortable and patient, even locked in the cage with a beast like Jones. Bones wins this fight by smothering Miocic in all facets. That means pressure with the striking, then clinches and takedown attempts.

If Jones leans on Stipe and makes him carry his weight, especially if this bout moves past the first round, he can win a war of attrition.

How Miocic Wins

Stipe's famous explosive spurts will be significant. The 40-year-old is still spry for a heavyweight, and he's found plenty of success over the year from intermittent offense.

The Cleveland native is patient, but he falls behind when he lets his opponent stalk him and line him up (think his loss to Francis Ngannou at UFC 260). In that bout, Ngannou chased Stipe around the Octagon and rocked him when he stepped up.

Against Jones at UFC 295, Miocic needs to show that explosive energy early. Pop off for a few combos, rush in, or swing heavy on a counter. Once Jones starts to respect Miocic's power, this fight will no longer be a mismatch.

Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic Betting Pick

This is a really high-caliber fight. Jones looked great at heavyweight, and Miocic, while out of action for two years, is still a king of fundamentals at heavyweight.

That said, Bones is my pick to win, and I think he does it by stoppage. We'll see how the prop odds look closer to the bout, but Jones ITD seems like the safest bet.

For rounds betting, I like UNDER 2.5. Again, it'll depend on the odds.

Stay tuned for a more precise pick closer to the fight.

Pick: Jones inside the distance (TBD); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (TBD)

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