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UFC: Cejudo vs Aldo Odds Analysis

Cejudo vs Aldo Betting Odds

UFC 250 in Sao Paulo, Brazil, finally has its main event announced with Henry “The Messenger” Cejudo colliding with Jose “Junior” Aldo with the bantamweight title on the line. This event is set to take place at Ginasio do Ibirapuera and will mark the return of the bantamweight champion for the first time since he won the belt in June of last year. Cejudo is a -240 favorite to retain his title with the former featherweight champ, Aldo, coming back at +205.

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Odds Analysis

It was surprising for many to see Jose Aldo get the title shot after he took a loss to Marlon Moraes in his bantamweight debut in December. However, Aldo may have been robbed by the judges in that bout as he probably should have gotten the victory – I certainly feel that way. The Brazil native lost his featherweight belt in the iconic fight with Conor McGregor that lasted just 13 seconds and he is just 3-5 over his last eight fights, including that McGregor loss. So, seeing him as a 2-to-1 underdog isn’t surprising at all.

Cejudo had a great 2019, defending his flyweight title against T.J. Dillashaw on the first UFC on ESPN card and then moving up a weight division to claim the vacant bantamweight strap with a third-round knockout win over Marlon Moraes. He took the rest of the year off after undergoing shoulder surgery. The Messenger has been an underdog in each of his last three fights, winning each bout and earning backers a profit of $710 based on $100 bets. This is the first time he’s been favored since December 2017 when he posted a decision win over Sergio Pettis.

How Will This Fight Play Out?

Henry Cejudo was the 2008 Olympic gold medalist in wrestling and he began his UFC career by scoring nine takedowns through his first four fights. He still has his wrestling in his back pocket, but his striking has steadily improved since his first fight with Demetrious Johnson and was on full display in knockout wins over Wilson Reis, T.J. Dillashaw and Marlon Moraes. What really stood out in the Moraes win was his durability, as the Messenger absorbed a ton of damage early but weathered the storm and went on the attack en route to the victory.

Aldo is a bully in the Octagon, not giving his opponents any room to work while stalking them and baiting them to throw so he can land his powerful counters. He’s at his best when he’s firing his devastating leg kicks. The former champ has been a little gun-shy recently, closing the distance with his opponents against the cage and then failing to let his hands go. I believe this is why he lost the decision to Moraes – there were opportunities to throw strikes, but instead he would only throw in when Moraes did. Had he been more active, he would have won that fight. Cejudo likes to be the bully in his fights so if he gets in Aldo’s face, we may see fireworks.

Henry Cejudo vs Jose Aldo Betting Odds
Henry Cejudo-240
Jose Aldo+205

Odds as of February 26 at BetOnline