Rodriguez vs Ortega Odds & Picks: A TKO Repeat In Mexico?

Yair Rodriguez takes on Brian Ortega in the co-main event of UFC Mexico City on February 24.

These two fighters met once before (2022), but the Rodriguez vs Ortega odds have since flipped. "El Pantera" won the previous bout by injury TKO, so he's now favored (-170), while Ortega (+140) is the underdog.

The Rodriguez vs Ortega bout will warm up the crowd for the main event between Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval.

Yair Rodriguez vs Brian Ortega Odds

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Ortega Odds
Yair Rodriguez-170
Brian Ortega+140

Odds as of Feb. 20

Our odds calculator suggests Rodriguez's -170 odds equate to an implied win probability of 62.96%, meaning a $100 bet on him pays out $158.42. Ortega's +140 underdog odds imply a 41.67% chance to win, and a $100 bet on him pays out $240. 

How To Watch UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Royval 2

  • Date/Time: February 24, 7 p.m. ET
  • Location: Mexico City, Mexico
  • Arena: Arena CDMX
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, Cable Provider

Rodriguez vs Ortega Betting Predictions

It's hard to imagine a more perfect co-main event for this Mexico City card. The odds are spot on, too, as Yair deserves to be a moderate favorite.

Let's break down the Rodriguez vs Ortega odds.

How To Bet Rodriguez vs Ortega

This is a great fight, but I'll give the early edge to Rodriguez. The 31-year-old is a much more creative striker than Ortega, and the numbers back that up.

Yair lands significant strikes at a much greater clip (46%) than Ortega (38%). We all know Rodriguez's spinning, striking prowess makes him dangerous, and I'm not sure how Ortega, 1-3 in his last four fights, will respond.

The ground game will be interesting. Ortega is good from top and bottom positions, while Rodriguez is better off his back. The grappling game seems like Ortega's best chance to win, but I don't see this fight going very long.

Rodriguez vs Ortega Pick

El Pantera isn't someone to wait around. Despite a recent loss, the Mexican will revel in home crowd energy and defeat Ortega early.

Pick: Rodriguez to win (-170); UNDER 4.5 Rounds (-190)

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