Jailton Almeida is favored vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik at UFC on ABC 4

Rozenstruik vs Almeida Odds & Pick: Steep Chalk For The Brazilian

Jailton Almeida faces his toughest UFC test on May 13 when he challenges knockout artist Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a five-round main event. Despite this step-up in competition, the Rozenstruik vs Almeida odds has Jailton as the -550 betting favorite. 

The two heavyweights will headline UFC on ABC 4, which takes place in Charlotte, North Carolina. Anthony Smith and Johnny Walker serve as the co-main event, while Ian Garry and Daniel Rodriguez will also chuck knuckles on the main card. 

Prelims begin at 11:30 a.m. ET and the main card starts at 3:30 p.m. The rising star Almeida is a chunky -550 favorite in the main event. 

UFC on ABC 4: Rozenstruik vs Almeida Betting Odds

Rozenstruik vs Almeida Odds
Jairzinho Rozenstruik+400
Jailton Almeida-550

Odds as of May 12

Almeida is no stranger to chalk. He's been a -575 favorite or steeper in each of his previous four UFC fights, and at -550 for Saturday's bout, the Brazilian has an implied win probability of 84.62%. Our odds calculator tells us a $10 bet on the favorite pays out $11.82.

Rozenstruik (+400) gets a 20% chance to win this bout, and a successful $10 bet on him pays out $50. 

How To Watch UFC on ABC 4: Rozenstruik vs Almeida

For our friends on the West Coast, you're going to have to wake up early as the prelims are beginning at 8:30 a.m. PST -- coffee and fights, great way to begin a Saturday.

  • Date/Time: May 13, 11:30 a.m. ET
  • Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
  • Arena: Spectrum Center
  • Where to Watch: ABC, ESPN

UFC on ABC 4: Full Card & Betting Odds

If any of the previous three UFC on ABC cards are an indiction for what we are in store for this weekend you better be excited. We can confirm that suspicion with a stacked fight card below. 

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Almeida Fight Card Odds
  • Main Card
  • Heavyweight Main Event – Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+400) vs Jailton Almeida (-550)
  • Light Heavyweight – Johnny Walker (-110) vs Anthony Smith (-110)
  • Welterweight – Daniel Rodriguez (+240) vs Ian Garry (-300)
  • Light Heavyweight – Carlos Ulberg (-450) vs Ihor Potieria (+350)
  • Welterweight – Tim Means (+187) vs Alex Morono (-225)
  • Prelims
  • Welterweight – Matt Brown (+187) vs Court McGee (-225)
  • Heavyweight – Karl Williams (-400) vs Chase Sherman (+300)
  • Bantamweight – Cody Stamann (-160) vs Douglas Silva de Andrade (+130)
  • Lightweight – Natan Levy (-250) vs Pete Rodriguez (+200)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Ji Yeon Kim (-200) vs Mandy Bohm (+170)
  • Welterweight – Gabe Green (-138) vs Bryan Battle (+110)
  • Women’s Bantamweight – Jessica-Rose Clark (-110) vs Tainara Lisboa (-110)

Odds as of May 12

Rozenstruik vs Almeida Tale Of The Tape

FighterJairzinho RozenstruikJailton Almeida
Record13-4 (1-4 As Underdog)18-2 (3-0 As Favorite)
Avg. Fight Time8:015:21
Sig. Strikes Per Minute2.934.19
Sig. Strikes Absorbed Per Minute3.230.34
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes0.006.73
Takedown Accuracy0%70%
Takedown Defense75%50%

Rozenstruik vs Almeida Preview: Who Will Win?

Is this just a one-way smashfest for the grappler Almeida? Let's take a look.

How Almeida Wins

The Brazilian possesses lightning-like speed – he’s capable of snapping off vicious kicks are diving for takedowns that opponents have no chance of defending. As a much lighter heavyweight than Rozenstruik, his agility will help him win here.

The Dana White Conder Series product isn’t immune to getting dinged on the chin, but he’ll never leave many opportunities for striking exchanges. This fight will turn into a grappling match right away. “Malhadinho” has soared through the division off the back of his elite wrestling ability. He’s like a heavyweight Khabib Nurmagomedov, tossing his foes like salad and dragging them all over the Octagon.

Stylistically, this bout vs Rozenstruik is a mismatch. Jairzinho has never even attempted a takedown in his career, meanwhile, Almeida averages 6.73 takedowns per 15 minutes. The Brazilian can win this fight by sticking to his furious grappling game plan and wearing Rozenstruik down.

How Rozenstruik Wins

No one expects Rozenstruik to win this fight. The volatile puncher thrives in greasy tussles where he gets to swing wildly. Like Derrick Lewis, the heavyweight knockout king, “Bigi Boy” possesses instantaneous knockout thunder in his fists. He may just not get a chance to slug vs Almeida on May 13.

The 35-year-old must stuff Almeida’s early takedown attempts – he needs to send a message that he can’t be swarmed with grappling right away. If he earns Almeida’s respect, then maybe the Brazilian will get lured into a kickboxing match. If that happens, there’s fantastic value on Rozenstruik at +400. 

The more punches thrown, the earlier this fight ends. And if someone goes out on the feet, there’s a strong chance Rozenstruik’s heavy mitts are behind it. 

Rozenstruik vs Almeida Pick

Almeida is quite obviously a future champion. He’s worlds better than most heavyweights in speed and wrestling. A fellow mauler like Jon Jones, for example, could fluster the Brazilian, but Rozenstruik won’t do it. With his skillset, he’s incapable. In fact, I think the Surinamese fighter will surrender early.

My best bet is for Almeida to win inside the distance and for him to do so in Round 1. 

Pick: Almeida to win in Round 1 (-110)

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