Anthony Hernandez is favored vs Edmen Shahbazyan on May 20

Shahbazyan vs Hernandez Odds & Pick: Watch Out For Fluffy

Edmen Shahbazyan takes on Anthony Hernandez Saturday in the co-main event of a Fight Night highlighted by Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill.

This three-round UFC middleweight bout happens May 20 at the Apex in Las Vegas, where prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET and the main card starts at 8 p.m. 

Hernandez is a moderare favorite at -225.

UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs Hernandez Betting Odds

Shahbazyan vs Hernandez Odds
Edmen Shahbazyan+187
Anthony Hernandez-225

Odds as of May 19

According to our odds calculator, Hernandez's -225 status gives him an implied win probability of 69.23% and a $100 bet on him pays $144.44. Shahbazyan's +187 status implied a 34.84 win percentage, with a $100 bet paying out $287.

How To Watch UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Hill

Here's how to watch the action.

  • Date/Time: May 20, 4 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, Cable Provider

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Hill Full Card & Betting Odds

Here's Saturday's lineup at the Apex.

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Hill Fight Card Odds
  • Main Card
  • Women's Strawweight Main Event – Mackenzie Dern (-175) vs Angela Hill (+150)
  • Middleweight – Edmen Shahbazyan (+187) vs Anthony Hernandez (-225)
  • Women's Catchweight (120 lbs) – Lupita Godinez (-160) vs Emily Ducote (+130)
  • Welterweight – Andre Fialho (+187) vs Joaquin Buckley (-225)
  • Lightweight – Michael Johnson (+130) vs Diego Ferreira (-160)
  • Prelims
  • Lightweight – Maheshate (+140) vs Viacheslav Borshchev (-170)
  • Women's Strawweight – Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-138) vs Vanessa Demopoulos (+110)
  • Welterweight – Orion Cosce (-125) vs Gilbert Urbina (+100)
  • Heavyweight – Ilir Latifi (+162) vs Rodrigo Nascimento (-188)
  • Lightweight – Chase Hooper (+110) vs Nick Fiore (-138)
  • Women's flyweight – Victoria Leonardo (+600) vs Natalia Silva (-1000)
  • Welterweight – Takashi Soto (+100) vs Themba Gorimbo (-125)

Odds as of May 19

Shahbazyan vs Hernandez Tale Of The Tape

FighterEdmen ShahbazyanAnthony Hernandez
Record12-3 (0-2 as underdog)10-2 (3-2 as favorite)
Avg. Fight Time7:137:16
Sig. Strikes Per Minute3.594.03
Sig. Strikes Absorbed Per Minute3.873.50
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes2.316.49
Takedown Accuracy37%64%
Takedown Defense65%66%

Shahbazyan vs Hernandez Preview: Who Will Win?

This co-main has plenty of fun potential.

How Hernandez Wins

Given Shahbazyan's name value, I was a bit surprised by how heavily chalked Hernandez is. Then I watched some tape. Oh boy. 

"Fluffy" is quite good at angling his opponents towards the fence and piecing them up. His hands are heavy, he throws slashing elbows and he's confident on the feet, but the bigger threat comes in tight. Hernandez is also an affluent grappler, which is where his path to victory will open up Saturday.

His strength plays on the ground, too. Hernandez is smart with how he uses his energy, often allowing guys to burn themselves out and then attacking at the perfect moment. Shahbazyan doesn't have a pristine grappling track record, so I imagine he'll panic when Hernandez gets on him.

How Shahbazyan Wins

I have serious concerns for Shahbazyan's health in this fight. "The Golden Boy" is especially vulnerable to takedowns (65% defense) and I'm not especially sure he'll contend with Hernandez when the fight moves in tight.

The California native is best to get his licks in early. If he uses those quick hands and fires off combos, he might catch Hernandez, who's been finished twice in the UFC. If he can't mount any offense, though, and Hernandez goes to work, this could be a short night.

Shahbazyan vs Hernandez Pick

I'm picking Hernandez to win inside the distance and this fight to finish UNDER 2.5 rounds.

Pick: Hernandez inside the distance (+120); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-160)

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