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Holloway vs Volkanovski Odds Analysis

UFC 245: Holloway vs Volkanovski Odds Analysis

UFC 245 goes from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on December 14 and the featherweight belt will be on the line as Max “Blessed” Holloway makes his fourth title defense against Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski. The reigning champion, Holloway, is a -175 favorite to retain his strap, while the challenger, Volkanovski, is coming back at +145.

Here’s a look at the main event between Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington for the welterweight championship, as well as the other co-main event bout, Amanda Nunes vs Germaine de Randamie for the women’s bantamweight title.

For a look at a breakdown and my picks for the UFC 245 main card, check out this article.

Event Information: UFC 245: Usman vs Covington
  • Date/Time: December 14, 6:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: T-Mobile Arena
  • Where to Watch: PPV, ESPN+

Odds Analysis

Holloway has been a sizable favorite in eight of his last nine fights, coming in as an underdog only in his first title fight against Jose Aldo, a fight he won via third-round TKO. Blessed hasn’t suffered a loss in the featherweight division since he lost to Conor McGregor in 2013, a span of 14 bouts. Max did go up to the lightweight division in April but lost by decision to Dustin Poirier.

Meanwhile, the challenger, Volkanovski, suffered a loss in his fourth professional fight in 2013 but is a perfect 17-0 since then. The Australian was a large favorite as he climbed the UFC featherweight rankings but came in at EVEN and +110 in his last two fights against Chad Mendes and Jose Aldo.

How Will The Fight Play Out?

Holloway loves getting into a good old-fashioned brawl with his opponents, trading punches for rounds on end until they fade and he picks up the win either by decision or knockout. He has a tremendous output and conditioning that has seen him land over 100 strikes in six of his last seven fights, including 290 against Brian Ortega last December. However, he also absorbs quite a bit of damage, an average of 105.2 over his last five. Don’t look for the champ to bring the fight to the floor, though. He has just four takedowns over his last 10 bouts.

Similar to the champ, Volkanovski averages a high volume of strikes, dishing out an average of 75.3 in three-round bouts compared to the five-round fights that Holloway has been in. That being said, over his seven UFC bouts, only once has he absorbed more than 50 strikes and that came against Darren Elkins. Additionally, The Great racked up 16 takedowns through his first five fights in the Octagon but none in his last two.

Max holloway vs Alexander Volkanovski Betting Odds
Max Holloway-175
Alexander Volkanovski+145

Odds as of December 13 at Bovada