Jon Jones vs Israel Adesanya Betting Odds Analysis - October 10, 2019

There has been a Twitter beef going back and forth between light heavyweight and pound-for-pound king Jon “Bones” Jones and newly minted middleweight champ Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya.

Online sportsbook Sportsbook has made Jones the big -550 favorite in a potential superfight between two champs with Adesanya coming back at +375.

Odds Analysis

Adesanya moving up a weight division that’s 20 pounds above what he competes at right now would put him at a major disadvantage and that’s why we see the line as it is. The Nigeria native doesn’t cut a lot of weight to get to 185 so even getting to 205 could cause some issues, specifically with his speed.

Meanwhile, Jones has been dominating the light heavyweight division for 10 years now, including winning the title against Shogun Rua in 2011. His only “loss” was a controversial disqualification in a bout he was dominating against Matt Hamill in 2009 that many people believe should be overturned to a no contest. He has been favored by -500 or more in 10 of his 21 UFC fights.

How Will This Fight Play Out?

Adesanya has tremendous reflexes and head movement that allows him to avoid strikes and set traps for his opponents. The Nigeria native also has deceptive power, with 14 of his 18 professional victories coming by knockout. Most recently, he knocked out Robert Whittaker at UFC 243 to win the middleweight title.

Jones is an extremely well-rounded mixed martial artist, having the ability to stand and strike with an elite striker such as Thiago Silva or get in a wrestling match with a former Olympian in Daniel Cormier. Bones, in the past, has not given his opponents the respect they deserved and that led him to some close calls, notably against Alexander Gustafsson, but he still walked away with his hand raised.

What could cause Adesanya a lot of trouble in this fight is Jones’ 84.5-inch reach, which is the longest in the UFC. The Last Stylebender likes to lean back to avoid his opponent’s strikes and then counter. Well, he may not be able to lean far enough away to avoid the punch. Additionally, Jones’ wrestling is top-notch and if he decides to take the fight to the floor, he will do just that.