Casey O'Neill (top) is favored vs Jennifer Maia at UFC 286

Maia vs O’Neill Odds & Pick: A One-Sided Grappling Match On Deck

A women’s flyweight fight between Jennifer Maia (20-9-1, 5-5 UFC) and Casey O’Neill (9-0, 5-0 UFC) takes place on the UFC 286 main card. ONeill is a moderate favorite at -175, while Maia comes in as the +150 underdog. 

UFC 286: Jennifer Maia vs casey O’Neill Betting Odds

Maia vs O’Neill Odds
Jennifer Maia+140
Casey O’Neill-170

Odds as of March 17

Our odds calculator tells us O’Neill’s -170 odds translate to an implied win probability of 62.96 percent, and a $10 bet on her pays out $15.88. Maia’s +140 odds equate to a 41.67 percent chance of victory with a $10 bet paying out $24. 

For more information on how these numbers work, including the Maia vs O’Neill odds, head over to our How to Bet on UFC page. Also, visit our main UFC betting news page for all the latest news from inside the Octagon.

UFC 286: Maia vs O’Neill Preview

Here’s how this fight between two ranked female flyweights will go down.

What Maia Does Well

Maia halted a two-fight losing skid in her last bout (a decision win over Maryna Moroz) but it’s been a while since she’s looked super crisp. Truly, she doesn’t bring any exceptional skills to this fight. The Brazilian is a competent wrestler, but she routinely gets outclassed on the feet, which is why her stats indicate she absorbs more damage than she dishes out.

Resilience will be Maia’s biggest asset vs O’Neill. The 34-year-old has fought for a title (where she managed some control time over Valentina Shevchenko) and understands how to make mid-fight adjustments. I’m just worried O’Neill will be far too fresh for her to manage any offense.

What O’Neill Does Well

Like fellow young contender Erin Blanchfield, O’Neill is a fierce grappler. Her hips are very strong and her transitions can be hard to defend. “King” likes to climb all over her opponents in a methodical manner, waiting for the opportunity for a choke or a ground-and-pound barrage.

This is a very good matchup for O’Neill. 

Maia vs O’Neill Pick

While it’s no guarantee O’Neill leaves her opponent twitching on the mat, I think she wins pretty decisively. I’m a big believer in backing young talent, and this seems like an excellent opportunity to win some cash on another rising UFC star.

Let’s go with O’Neill to win and the fight to go the distance. As a half-unit value pick, I’ll also take a chance on O’Neill to win inside the distance. 

Pick: O’Neill to win (-170); fight to Go the distance (-265); sprinkle on O’Neill by finish (+320)

Check out our other UFC 286 previews, including picks on Kamaru Usman vs Leon Edwards, Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev, Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena, and Roman Dolidze vs Marvin Vettori

UFC 286: Full Card & Betting Odds

UFC 286 Odds & Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Welterweight Title Fight – Kamaru Usman (-250) vs Leon Edwards (+200)
  • Lightweight  – Justin Gaethje (+187) vs Rafael Fiziev (-225)
  • Welterweight – Gunnar Nelson (-400) vs Bryan Barberena (+300)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Jennifer Maia (+140) vs Casey O’Neill (-170)
  • Middleweight – Marvin Vettori (-275) vs Roman Dolidze (+225)
  • Prelims
  • Featherweight – Jack Shore (-550) vs Makwan Amirkhani (+400)
  • Lightweight – Chris Duncan (+100) vs Omar Morales (-125)
  • Lightweight – Sam Patterson (-275) vs Yanal Ashmoz (+225)
  • Flyweight – Muhammad Mokaev (-1000) vs Jafel Filho (+600)
  • Featherweight – Lerone Murphy (-175) vs Gabriel Santos (+150)
  • Middleweight – Christian Leroy Duncan (-210) vs Dusko Todorovic (+175)
  • Flyweight – Jake Hadley (-400) vs Malcolm Gordon (+300)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Joanne Wood (-175) vs Luana Carolina (+150)
  • Lightweight – Jai Herbert (+150) vs Ludovit Klein (-175)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Veronica Macedo (+350) vs Juliana Miller (-450)

Odds as of March 17

How To Watch UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3
  • Date/Time: March 18, 1 p.m. ET
  • Location: London, England
  • Arena: O2 Arena
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV
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