UFC Fight Night Moscow: Mark Hunt vs Aleksei Oleinik

For the first time in UFC history, the Octagon will be set up in Moscow, Russia with two heavyweights headlining the card. The main event has veteran Mark “The Super Samoan” Hunt taking on the very experienced Aleksei “The Boa Constrictor” Oleinik. The New Zealand native, Hunt, is a -235 favorite with the Russia native, Oleinik, coming back at +185.

The UFC has put together a fantastic card for the first trip to Russia, and I’m here to give you a breakdown and pick for every fight on the main card.

Mark Hunt vs Aleksei Oleinik

In a classic striker vs wrestler matchup, Sportsbook gives the edge to the knockout artist, Mark Hunt. The Super Samoan makes his 17th walk to the Octagon and has been an underdog in his last three fights, but was favored in the three fights prior. The oddsmakers are usually pretty good at picking Hunt fights, as he is 3-0-1 with one no contest through his five fights as a favorite while going 3-5 as an underdog. Meanwhile, Aleksei Oleinik enters the UFC cage for the eighth time and has been favored in three bouts, going 2-1. However, the Russian wrestler is 3-1 when he is the underdog, which would have earned bettors a profit of $555 had they wagered $100 on each of those fights.

Hunt (-235) has vicious one-punch knockout power that he has used to secure 10 of his 13 career victories. The Super Samoan is extremely patient, baiting his opponents into attacking him while he lands devastating counter-strikes. The 44-year-old is 3-4 with one no contest over his last eight fights, with three of his losses coming by T/KO and all three of his victories coming in the same manner.

Oleinik (+185) is the complete opposite of Hunt, electing to finish his fights by submission rather than knockout. The Boa Constrictor has been in 68 professional fights and has a record of 56-11-1 with 44 of those wins coming by submission. Inside the Octagon, the Russian is 5-2 with four submissions and one knockout. The 41-year-old’s lone loss in his last four bouts came to top challenger Curtis Blaydes at UFC 217 when he was finished by TKO by a doctor’s stoppage.

This is a style battle for sure as five of Oleinik’s 11 losses have come by T/KO, while six of Hunt’s 12 losses have come by submission. The Boa Constrictor has an eight-inch reach advantage over the Super Samoan that he will need to take advantage of to keep the knockout specialist at a distance. However, for the Russian to win this fight, he will need to get on the inside to get it to the ground, but getting close to the New Zealand native presents extreme danger as one punch and it’s over.

Prediction: Aleksei Oleinik (+185) via submission

Hunt vs Oleinik Fight Center

Jan Blachowicz vs Nikita Krylov

Blachowicz (-115) is an extremely well-rounded fighter but hasn’t found tremendous success inside the Octagon. This is the 10th walk to the UFC cage for the Poland native and he is just 5-4 in his previous nine bouts. However, three of his four losses came to top-ranked opponents in Alexander Gustafsson, Corey Anderson and Jimi Manuwa.

Blachowicz has rattled off three straight victories, including redeeming his loss to Jimi Manuwa with a decisive unanimous decision in March of this year. The No. 4-ranked light heavyweight has outstruck his opponents by double digits in each of his last three wins and has landed six takedowns over that span.

Krylov (-115) enters the Octagon for the first time since his UFC 206 loss to Misha Cirkunov in December 2016. “The Miner” left the UFC for Fight Nights Global where he picked up four straight wins, all by finishes, including his last three that he won by T/KO. In the UFC, the Ukraine native went 6-3 but was 5-1 in his last six fights before leaving the company.

All six of his UFC wins were finishes, with three by submission and three by T/KO. Overall, the 26-year-old has 10 wins by T/KO and 14 wins by submission and has never gone to decision. He also has landed 6.55 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.87 significant strikes per minute.

This is a fantastic fight and a difficult one to choose. Oddsmakers feel the same way as they see it as a pick’em. Both fighters are really well-rounded. Blachowicz has the edge if the fight is extended, with nine wins by decision, while Krylov has fight-ending power and has never gone the distance. However, Krylov has been submitted 14 times and Blachowicz has eight submissions to his name. The Poland native has only been stopped twice in his career and hasn’t been stopped in his last 14 fights since 2011.

Prediction: Nikita Krylov (-115) via knockout

Blachowicz vs Krylov Fight Center

Shamil Abdurakhimov vs Andre Arlovski

Abdurakhimov (-140) has a good balance between explosive knockout power and clean wrestling. The Russia native has landed five takedowns over his last three fights, including four against Derrick Lewis before getting knocked out in the fourth round. Abdurakhimov bounced back from that T/KO defeat with a first-round knockout of his own over Chase Sherman last November.

Inside the Octagon the 37-year-old is 3-2 with his two losses coming by way of knockout and two of his three wins coming by decision. Abdurakhimov has a good ability to dictate where the fight will go as he defends 77 percent of takedowns and also defends 58 percent of strikes.

Arlovski (+110) looks to reverse a current trend that has seen him drop six of his last eight fights, but he fought a murderers’ row over that span. “The Pit Bull” was knocked out by Francis Ngannou, Alistair Overeem and Stipe Miocic while also losing to Josh Barnett, Marcin Tybura and Tai Tuivasa in his current rough patch.

The former champion looked great in his UFC 225 fight with Tai Tuivasa with tremendous boxing skills that allowed him to land combinations seemingly at will. However, he was outstruck 54-52 in the end and lost by unanimous decision. Of Arlovski’s 27 wins, 17 have come by T/KO but he has also lost 10 fights in the same manner.

Both fighters have been leaving fights in the judges’ hands recently, as Arlovski has gone to decision in his last four fights, while Abdurakhimov has gone the distance in two of his last four. The two gladiators have the ability to end a fight quickly with their powerful punches but also are susceptible to being knocked out. Abdurakhimov has not fought since last November, but he had taken 11 months off before and came back with a first-round knockout over Sherman. Arlovski has been much more active, fighting three times since last November, including two victories.

Prediction: Andrei Arlovski (+110) via decision

Arlovski vs Abdurakhimov Fight Center

Alexey Kunchenko vs Thiago Alves

Kunchenko (-500) makes his Octagon debut and with it he lays his undefeated 18-0 record on the line. The Russia native has earned 13 of his victories by T/KO, including his last two. He is the current M-1 Global welterweight champion and has defended the belt four times since 2016. The 34-year-old has only been an MMA professional since 2013 but has fought some tough guys along the way to his 18-0 record.

Alves (+350) has been in the UFC since 2005 and he’s not much more than a gatekeeper at this point in his career. “The Pitbull” has dropped three of his last four fights and has managed to string together back-to-back wins just once since 2008. The Brazilian enjoys a good brawl and doesn’t shy away from standing toe to toe with his opponents. Alves lands 3.6 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.14 significant strikes per minute. Of his 22 career victories, 12 have come by T/KO with only two coming by submission.

It is often difficult to tell how a fighter will perform in their Octagon debut. Will the big lights get to them or will they shine despite the extra attention? Some of Kunchenko’s anxiety could be mitigated by the fact that he’s fighting in his home country so there is some familiarity. Don’t expect anything less than a standup brawl – only 17 of the two fighters’ 52 combined fights have gone to decision.

Prediction: Kunchenko (-500) via knockout

Alves vs Kunchenko Fight Center

Here’s a look at the odds for the rest of the UFC Fight Night Moscow card: