Namajunas vs Esparza Odds Analysis

Namajunas vs Esparza Odds Analysis: Thug Rose Favored In Long-Awaited Rematch

In the first of two scheduled championship clashes on the main card at UFC 274, Rose Namajunas will put her UFC women’s strawweight title on the line when she takes on No. 2 contender Carla Esparza.

UFC 274 is taking place on Saturday, May 7, at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona, and can be seen on PPV. In the Namajunas vs Esparza odds ahead of this long-awaited rematch, the champion “Thug Rose” has emerged as a clear favorite to successfully defend her crown.

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Rose Namajunas vs Carla Esparza Betting Odds

Online sportsbook Sportsbook has got you covered with all the UFC 274 odds, and has pegged Namajunas as a steady -210 favorite while Esparza lags as a +165 underdog. That means backers of Thug Rose must wager $210 to generate potential winnings of $100, while a successful $100 bet on the underdog Esparza will pay out $165.

Namajunas vs Esparza Odds

Rose Namajunas vs Carla Esparza Betting Odds
Rose Namajunas-210
Carla Esparza+165

Odds as of May 6 at Sportsbook

A deep dive into the Namajunas vs Esparza betting line using the Odds Shark sports betting calculator shows that Thug Rose’s -210 odds translate into an implied win probability of 67.64 percent, while Esparza’s odds reflect an implied win probability of just 37.74 percent.

The betting action doesn’t get much better than when a title is on the line, so head on over to our How to Bet on UFC guide to learn about UFC betting. Also, we have compiled a list of the best UFC betting sites to help you decide where to bet on the UFC. All of your UFC betting news can be found here at Odds Shark.

Namajunas vs Esparza Odds Analysis

Namajunas will enter the Octagon at UFC 274 as a clear betting favorite for just the second time in her past eight fights. She sported average odds of +138 in her back-to-back victories over previous champion Weili Zhang after paying out as -225 chalk while claiming a narrow split decision in her rematch with Jessica Andrade at UFC 251.

“The Cookie Monster” paid out as a +115 underdog in her first clash with Namajunas over seven years ago, and has remained consistently underestimated at the sportsbooks. Esparza has been clearly favored just once during her current five-fight UFC win streak and sported positive odds in her two most recent victories, over Xiaonan Yan and Marina Rodriguez.

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Namajunas vs Esparza Betting Preview

Rematches are nothing new for Namajunas, who has faced just three different opponents over her last six contests.

Thug Rose shocked the MMA world with a stunning first-round knockout of Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 217, paying out as a massive +500 underdog while claiming the UFC women’s strawweight title for the first time.

She subsequently defended her title in her rematch with Jedrzejczyk before losing the belt in the first of two dates with Andrade, and subsequently returned to the top of the division with back-to-back wins over Zhang.

Thug Rose quickly established herself as a submission specialist early in her career, forcing opponents to tap out in five of her first six wins. However, she has also demonstrated her ability to go toe to toe with her knockout wins over Jedrzejczyk and Zhang, and averages 4.01 significant strikes per minute.

Despite her success on the mat, Namajunas has struggled at times defending against the takedown. That was particularly true in her first date with Esparza, who put her on the mat five times before finishing with a third-round submission.

Can Esparza Establish Career-High Win Streak?

Like Namajunas, Esparza has faced ranked opponents in each of her past five outings. And while she has emerged victorious in each of those contests, four of the victories have come by razor-thin margins.

In addition to her split-decision wins over Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson, she also eked out a majority-decision win over Alexa Grasso prior to tallying a second-round TKO victory over Yan in her last outing.

Despite those slender wins, it is unwise to underestimate the former Invicta FC strawweight champ. Esparza has proven capable of beating opponents with punching power, on the mat and by going the distance.

She averages an impressive 3.53 takedowns per 15 minutes and 2.34 strikes landed per minute. However, she absorbs more strikes than she lands and was badly outclassed in total strikes landed in three of her four most recent defeats.

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Namajunas vs Esparza Betting Pick

While Thug Rose has clearly established that her rise to the championship ranks has not been a fluke, Esparza is not an ideal opponent for her. Esparza will once again have the clear advantage if she is successful at taking the fight to the mat, adding significant value to her long odds.

Prediction: Carla Esparza (+165)

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