Charles Oliveira (left) and Rose Namajunas (right) are favored in the UFC 274 odds.

UFC 274 Odds & Picks: Oliveira, Thug Rose Favored to Retain Titles

Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira (-145) missed weight on Friday and became the first champ stripped of the title for missing weight. Justin Gaethje (+115) can still win the title if he wins. The UFC 274 odds swing 30 points in favor of the challenger as a result.

A pair of UFC championship belts will be on the line when the UFC makes its first stop at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona, in over three years for UFC 274 on Saturday, May 7. The UFC 274 main event features a battle for the UFC lightweight crown as champion Charles Oliveira steps into the Octagon to face top-ranked contender Justin Gaethje.

The ladies seize the spotlight in the co-main event of the evening, as Rose Namajunas looks to defend her UFC women’s strawweight belt in a long-awaited rematch with former champion Carla Esparza.

Bet On UFC 274 Here

The first prelim fight of the evening is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, with the main card set to get underway at 10 p.m. ET on PPV. And in the UFC 274 odds for the main event of the evening, Charles Oliveira has maintained his perch since Sportsbook as the betting favorite.

You can check out UFC odds among other betting markets at Sportsbook:

UFC 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje Betting Notes

Charles Oliveira returns to the Octagon for the first time since defending his UFC lightweight title in record-setting fashion with a victory over Dustin Poirier at UFC 269.

Unsuccessful in his bid for the undisputed UFC lightweight title when he faced Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 254, Justin Gaethje rebounded with a unanimous-decision win over Michael Chandler, and will be gunning for his sixth win in seven outings.

For even more UFC 274 betting information see who Joe Osborne is backing this weekend.

UFC 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje Odds

The champion is a -145 favorite since Sportsbook at -155, while Gaethje has moved to a +115 underdog in the Oliveira vs Gaethje odds currently available at Sportsbook. That means you must wager $145 on Oliveira to claim potential winnings of $100, while a successful $100 bet on Gaethje will generate a $115 payday.

According to our sports betting calculator, Oliveira’s short odds translate to an implied win probability of 59.18 percent, while Gaethje’s betting line translates to an implied win probability of just 46.51 percent.

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If you’re looking for the biggest underdog in the UFC 274 odds, Cameron VanCamp is your man, pegged as a +325 underdog in his date with Andre Fialho.

The tightest odds can be found in the prelims, with welterweights Francisco Trinaldo (-120) and Danny Roberts (-110) in a near pick’em. Welterweights Randy Brown (-110) and Khaos Williams (-120) share the same line.

UFC 274 Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC 274 Betting Lines And Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Lightweight Championship – Charles Oliveira (-145) vs Justin Gaethje (+115)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Rose Namajunas (-220) vs Carla Esparza (+175)
  • Lightweight – Tony Ferguson (+300) vs Michael Chandler (-400)
  • Light Heavyweight – Mauricio Rua (+200) vs Ovince Saint Preux (-250)
  • Lightweight – Donald Cerrone (-180) vs Joe Lauzon (+150)
  • Prelims
  • Welterweight – Andre Fialho (-450) vs Cameron VanCamp (+325)
  • Welterweight – Randy Brown (-110) vs Khaos Williams (-120)
  • Women’s Featherweight – Macy Chiasson (+180) vs Norma Dumont (-230)
  • Flyweight – Brandon Royval (-250) vs Matthew Schnell (+200)
  • Heavyweight – Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+120) vs Blagoy Ivanov (-150)
  • Welterweight – Francisco Trinaldo (-120) vs Danny Roberts (-110)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Tracy Cortez (-140) vs Melissa Gatto (+110)
  • Flyweight – Kleydson Rodrigues (-350) vs CJ Vergara (+250)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Ariane Carnelossi (+155) vs Lupita Godinez (-190)
  • Bantamweight – Journey Newson (+105) vs Fernie Garcia (-135) 

Is there a fight you’re looking to have action on? Check out our How to Bet UFC page to learn about betting on the UFC. Also, our sportsbook review is a great resource in choosing where to bet on the UFC. There is more UFC betting news here at Odds Shark.

UFC 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: Saturday, May 7, 8 p.m. ET
  • Location: Phoenix, Arizona
  • Arena: Footprint Center
  • Where to Watch: PPV

Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje Odds & Picks

Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje Betting Odds
Charles Oliveira-145
Justin Gaethje+115

Despite enjoying a 10-fight win streak that has lifted him to the top of the UFC lightweight division, Charles Oliveira (-145) will enter the Octagon sporting negative odds for just the second time in five outings. However, he likely faces the toughest test of his win streak against Gaethje (+115), who has recorded a trio of finishes inside five minutes during his current 5-1 run.

Oliveira: Need To Knows
  • Holder of a third-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, “Do Bronx” has established him as a fearsome submission specialist and holds the UFC record with 15 submission victories. That includes a division-leading nine tap-outs while fighting as a lightweight.
  • Despite owning impressive skills on the mat, Oliveira credits his current run of success to his decision to change gyms five years ago to focus on improving his striking game.
  • That move has paid dividends, with three of Oliveira’s past five wins coming by KO or TKO. Striking was also key to his recent win over Dustin Poirier, with Oliveira outpacing “The Diamond” by landing 73 significant strikes, by far the most he has landed during his win streak.
  • Oliveira’s last three fights were Dustin Poirier (win – submission), Michael Chandler (win – TKO punches) and Tony Ferguson (win – unanimous decision).
Gaethje: Need To Knows
  • Gaethje has fought some of the best of the best in the lightweight division during his current 5-1 run. While he came up short in his UFC 254 clash with Khabib, “The Highlight” impressed while recording first-round finishes in dates with Donald Cerrone, Edson Barboza and James Vick.
  • The 33-year-old has also padded his paycheck with bonus money, claiming Fight of the Night or Performance of the Night bonuses in eight of nine clashes since joining the UFC.
  • Gaethje has a well-earned reputation as a striker and leads all current lightweights with 7.5 strikes landed per minute and a significant strike accuracy rating of 60.1 percent. However, his background as an NCAA Division I wrestler means he should not be underestimated on the mat.
  • Gaethje’s last three fights were Michael Chandler (win – unanimous decision), Khabib Nurmagomedov (loss - submission) and Tony Ferguson (win – TKO punches).

Prediction: Justin Gaethje (+115)

For more information on this fight, see our Oliveira vs Gaethje odds article.

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Rose Namajunas vs Carla Esparza Odds & Picks

Rose Namajunas vs Carla Esparza Betting Odds
Rose Namajunas-220
Carla Esparza+175

Rose Namajunas (-220) will be aiming to successfully defend her UFC women’s strawweight title for a second time when she enters the Octagon at UFC 274. “Thug Rose” returns to action after eking out a split-decision win at UFC 268 over Zhang Weili, the woman she took the belt from with a stunning first-round finish at UFC 261.

Carla Esparza (+175) has been idle since extending her current win streak to five fights with a second-round TKO win over Yan Xiaonan at UFC Fight Night: Font vs Garbrandt. That also marked the first time she has finished an opponent since her submission victory over Namajunas in 2014.

Namajunas: Need To Knows
  • Despite her consistent success, “Thug Rose” gets set to enter the Octagon as a betting favorite for just the second time in eight fights.
  • Rematches are old hat for Namajunas, whose past six fights have featured back-to-back clashes with Zhang, Jessica Andrade and Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
  • A submission specialist early in her career, Thug Rose has refined her striking game of late, and has seen two of her past five wins come by KO or TKO.
  • Namajunas’ last three fights were Zhang Weili (win – split decision), Zhang Weili (win – knockout) and Jessica Andrade (win – split decision).
Esparza: Need To Knows
  • “The Cookie Monster” has faced stiff competition, with each of her past five fights coming against ranked opponents. However, three of those wins were by split or majority decision.
  • Esparza has seen 10 of her past 13 fights decided by the judges. However, she left no doubt in her first date with Thug Rose, claiming the inaugural UFC women’s strawweight championship with a third-round submission victory.
  • Esparza is adept at takedowns, averaging 3.53 per 15 minutes, but has been badly outpaced in significant strikes landed in three of her past four outings.
  • Esparza’s last three fights were Yan Xiaonan (win – TKO punches), Marina Rodriguez (win – split decision) and Michelle Waterson (win – split decision).

Prediction: Carla Esparza (+175)

For more information on this championship bout, see the Namajunas vs Esparza odds analysis.

Michael Chandler vs Tony Ferguson Odds & Picks

Michael Chandler vs Tony Ferguson Betting Odds
Michael Chandler -400
Tony Ferguson+300

Michael Chandler (-400) aims to bounce back after seeing a streak of three straight first-round finishes snapped by back-to-back losses to Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje. Tony Ferguson (+300) is also picking up the pieces in the wake of three straight losses. After falling to Oliveira and Gaethje, Ferguson dropped a unanimous decision to Beneil Dariush last time out at UFC 262.

Chandler: Need To Knows
  • Chandler was a dominant force in Bellator before making the leap to the UFC two years ago, winning the Bellator lightweight title on three occasions.
  • Currently pegged as the No. 5 contender in the UFC lightweight division, “Iron Mike” has landed 5.17 significant strikes per minute over his three Octagon appearances, while also stuffing 71 percent of takedown attempts.
  • Chandler’s last three fights were Justin Gaethje (loss – unanimous decision), Charles Oliveira (loss – knockout punches) and Dan Hooker (win – knockout punches).
Ferguson: Need To Knows
  • Ferguson finds himself at a crossroads after losing three straight for the first time in his career. His slide comes on the heels of a 12-fight win streak that featured a brief reign as interim UFC lightweight champion.
  • When on his game, “El Cucuy” is equally effective on his feet or on the mat, with five of his past nine wins coming by submission.
  • Ferguson’s last three fights were Beneil Dariush (loss – unanimous decision), Charles Oliveira (loss – unanimous decision) and Justin Gaethje (loss – TKO punches).

Prediction: Michael Chandler (-400)

For a more in-depth look at this bout, see the Ferguson vs Chandler odds article.

Mauricio Rua vs Ovince Saint-Preux Odds & Picks

Mauricio Rua vs Ovince Saint-Preux Betting Odds
Mauricio Rua+200
Ovince Saint-Preux-250

Ovince Saint-Preux (-250) looks to rebound from consecutive losses as he battles fellow heavyweight Mauricio Rua (+200).

Rua: Need To Knows
  • Rua is winless in three of his past five outings, capped by a second-round TKO loss to Paul Craig at UFC 255. However, he has avoided consecutive defeats since suffering a first-round KO loss to Saint-Preux in their first meeting eight years ago at UFC Fight Night 56.
  • “Shogun” has landed 3.57 significant strikes per minute, and has claimed 21 of his 27 career wins by knockout. However, he has a significant four-inch disadvantage in reach and two-inch disadvantage in height against Saint-Preux.
  • Rua’s last three fights were Paul Craig (loss – TKO), Antônio Rogério Nogueira (win – split decision) and Paul Craig (draw – split).
Saint-Preux: Need To Knows
  • Saint-Preux has produced mixed results since making a move to the UFC heavyweight division, winning just one of two fights. And overall, “OSP” has earned the win in just three of his past nine outings.
  • OSP has been finished in five of his past six defeats. He is also coming off his longest layoff since joining the UFC in 2013, with his last trip to the Octagon coming 11 months ago.
  • Saint-Preux’s last three fights were Tanner Boser (loss – KO punches), Jamahal Hill (loss – TKO punches) and Alonzo Menifield (win – KO punches).

Prediction: Mauricio Rua (+200) 

Donald Cerrone vs Joe Lauzon Odds & Pick

Donald Cerrone vs Joe Lauzon Betting Odds
Donald Cerrone -180
Joe Lauzon+150

Donald Cerrone (-180) saw his epic winless slide extend to six fights in his last outing, a stunning first-round TKO defeat at the hands of Alex Morono at UFC Vegas 26. “Cowboy” looks to get back on track when he faces fellow lightweight Joe Lauzon (+150), who returns to the Octagon for the first time since October 2019.

Cerrone: Need To Knows
  • Cowboy has gone 0-5 with one no contest over his past six outings, with three of those defeats coming by first-round TKO, and has posted just two victories since his return to the UFC lightweight division in 2019.
  • Cerrone has landed a respectable 4.43 significant strikes per minute, But that punching power has been largely non-existent during his current six-fight swoon, with the 39-year-old fan favorite landing 18 or fewer total strikes on three occasions over his past five outings.
  • Cerrone’s last three fights were Alex Morono (loss – TKO punches), Niko Price (no contest – Price failed drug test) and Anthony Pettis (loss – unanimous decision).
Lauzon: Need To Knows
  • Joe Lauzon has entered the Octagon just once over the past four years, earning a first-round TKO win over Jonathan Pearce at UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs Weidman in April 2018. The win snapped a three-fight losing streak, with his two most recent defeats coming inside 10 minutes.
  • Consistency has emerged as a big concern for this submission specialist, who has tallied consecutive victories just once during a 7-9 run that dates back to 2012. Despite his struggles, Lauzon ranks first among active lightweights with 15 performances, second with 13 finishes, and third with seven submission wins.
  • Lauzon’s last three fights were Jonathan Pearce (win – TKO punches), Chris Gruetzemacher (loss – TKO corner stoppage) and Clay Guida (loss – TKO punches).

Prediction: Donald Cerrone (-180)

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