Marina Rodriguez (left) is favored in the Rodriguez vs Lemos odds

Rodriguez vs Lemos Odds & Pick: Two Brazilian Strawweights Ready For War

The UFC events are coming fast and furious as we round out 2022. On November 5, we’ll see two of the world’s best female strawweights square off. Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2) and Amanda Lemos (12-2-1) will headline the main card at the Apex in Las Vegas. 

The bout between Rodriguez, the third-ranked 115-pounder, and Lemos, ranked seventh, will be a five-round main event at UFC Vegas 64. The prelims for the card begin at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card starting at 8 p.m.

Bet On UFC Fight Night Here

Marina is a big favorite in the Rodriguez vs Lemos odds. Sportsbook currently has the 35-year-old as a -230 favorite. 

For Rodriguez vs Lemos betting and other UFC needs, we’ve got you covered. Check out all our UFC betting sites, our How To Bet UFC page and specific fight previews, including a closer look at the upcoming title fight between Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira.

Rodriguez vs Lemos Odds & Betting Notes

This matchup has future title-shot implications. The women’s strawweight champion, Carla Esparza, is fighting at UFC 281 vs Weili Zhang. Depending on how that bout plays out – and after the results of UFC Vegas 64 – we could see one of Lemos or Rodriguez fighting for the strap very soon. 

Rodriguez has been on a heater coming into this event. After losing to Esparza by split decision at UFC Fight Island 3, the Brazilian has rattled off four consecutive victories (three decisions, one TKO). During those four fights, she alternated between moderate favorite and moderate underdog status. 

Lemos, also from Brazil, has brought plenty of thrills since joining the UFC in 2017. She has a 6-2 UFC record with four stoppage victories, a rarity in the strawweight division. Lemos cashed as a -300 favorite in her last fight vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez, winning by second-round submission at UFC on ABC 3. 

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Lemos Odds

Sportsbook lists Rodriguez as the -230 favorite in the Rodriguez vs Lemos odds, while Lemos remains a +185 underdog. 

The tightest odds of the card can be found in the co-main event between welterweights Daniel Rodriguez (EVEN) and Neil Magny (-120). 

Shanna Young (+500) is the biggest underdog of the card in her women's flyweight bout vs Miranda Maverick (-800) 

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Lemos Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Lemos Odds
  • Main Card
  • Women’s Strawweight – Marina Rodriguez (-230) vs Amanda Lemos (+185)
  • Welterweight – Daniel Rodriguez (EVEN) vs Neil Magny (-120)
  • Heavyweight – Chase Sherman (-138) vs Josh Parisian (+110)
  • Flyweight – Tagir Ulanbekov (-230) vs Nate Maness (+185)
  • Lightweight – Grant Dawson (-230) vs Mark Madsen (+183)
  • Prelims
  • Featherweight – Darrick Minner (+176) vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (-220)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Miranda Maverick (-800) vs Shanna Young (+500)
  • Bantamweight – Mario Bautista (-335) vs Benito Lopez (+250)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Jinh Yu Frey (+116) vs Polyana Viana (-143)
  • Bantamweight – Johnny Munoz Jr. (-250) vs Liudvik Sholinian (+195)
  • Flyweight – Jake Hadley (-275) vs Carlos Candelario (+215)
  • Women’s Bantamweight – Ramona Pascual (+110) vs Tamires Vidal (-130)

Odds as of November 4 at Sportsbook

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Lemos Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: November 5, 4 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, Cable Provider

Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos Odds & Pick

Marina Rodriguez-230
Amanda Lemos+185

Rodriguez was favored at -180 in her bout vs Esparza at UFC Fight Island 3. While she lost that one by split decision, the Brazilian has since rallied for four straight wins, cashing as the underdog twice (+270 vs Amanda Ribas and +165 vs Mackenzie Dern) during that span. Rodriguez’s -230 status represents the third-heaviest chalk of her career, behind only her wins over Jessica Aguilar (-340) at UFC on ESPN 2 and Waterson-Gomez (-225) at UFC Vegas 26. 

Lemos, like Rodriguez, has alternated between underdog and chalk lately. She was a +190 underdog – the longest odds of her UFC career – ahead of her stoppage loss to Jessica Andrade at UFC Vegas 52. Lemos’ lone other UFC loss came against Leslie Smith at UFC Fight Night 113, where she closed as a +175 underdog. 

Our odds calculator tells us Rodriguez’s -230 status awards her an implied win probability of 69.70 percent. That means a $10 bet on the favorite pays out $14.35. Lemos’ +185 status gives her an implied win probability of 35.09 percent, and a $10 bet on her pays out $28.50.

Rodriguez: Need to Knows
  • Rodriguez, who got her start on the Brazilian iteration of Dana White’s Contender Series, is a Muay Thai expert. Her strength and output in the clinch are what set her apart. The 35-year-old is dangerous with her knees, elbows and even straight shots when the clinch breaks. We’ve seen her use that technical soundness to stun opponents, but she’s rarely powerful enough to secure a KO. Five of her six UFC victories have come via decision and her average fight time is 15:07. 
  • This will be Rodriguez’s third time as a five-round main-event headliner. In her previous two bouts, Marina recorded unanimous-decision wins and out-struck her opponents by a combined total of 269-137. Lemos, on the other hand, lost her only main-event bout by first-round submission vs Andrade. 
  • Rodriguez’s last three fights were against Xiaonan Yan (win – split decision), Dern (win – unanimous decision) and Waterson-Gomez (win – unanimous decision).
Lemos: Need to Knows
  • Lemos is a fun fighter to watch. The five-foot-four Brazilian always stays relaxed, never rushes, and fires laser-like punches when her opponents advance. By nature of her fighting style, she ends up in some wild battles (hence her two UFC stoppage losses), putting damage on opponents (4.87 significant strikes per minute), but also eating a good chunk of damage (4.07 strikes absorbed). Lemos is a more aggressive fighter than Rodriguez, but Marina is far more technical. Rodriguez will have her hands full with Lemos’ forward pressure, though that won’t be a new challenge, as Marina has better striking defense than Lemos.
  • Expect this fight to have a slow, give-and-take pace.  Rodriguez’s defense is very good, and while Lemos can be explosive, especially with her kicks, Marina should be able to check any shots that don’t come in combinations. Since it’s unlikely that Rodriguez has enough pop to put Lemos out, and Marina’s defense likely will keep her standing, this should end up being a point fight. If you’re live-betting this one, watch to see which fighter is advancing or which fighter is cutting off angles and pushing their opponent toward the cage. Those minutiae might just influence who wins on the scorecards.
  • Lemos’ last three fights have come against Waterson-Gomez (win – submission), Andrade (loss – submission) and Angela Hill (win – split decision).

Pick: Rodriguez by decision (+135)

Neil Magny vs Daniel Rodriguez Odds & Pick

Daniel RodriguezEVEN
Neil Magny-120

The co-main event features a welterweight bout between Neil Magny (26-9) and Daniel Rodriguez (17-2). 

Rodriguez: Need to Knows
  • Rodriguez was part of the scrambled main-card madness during UFC 279 but walked away with a controversial split-decision win. “D-Rod” outdid Li Jingliang in the significant strike department (88-78), landing more shots to the head than his opponent. Despite some heavy power from “The Leech,” Rodriguez never looked in danger. It’s very unlikely Magny stuns or knocks down Rodriguez in their bout. 
  • D-Rod’s method to victory at UFC 279 was the same as it’s always been. The 35-year-old fought behind his strong right-handed jab and mixed in some thunderous leg kicks to compromise his opponent’s base. There weren’t many big shots landed, but the numbers favored Rodriguez. Against Magny, he can use a similar approach to secure a victory. Magny is notorious for ducking damage and luring opponents into low-volume fights, so if Rodriguez can stick to his jab-jab rhythm, he can get to Magny early. 
  • Rodriguez’s last three fights were against Jingliang (win – split decision), Kevin Lee (win – unanimous decision) and Preston Parsons (win – technical knockout).
Magny: Need to Knows
  • Magny, who is tied with Georges St-Pierre for the most welterweight wins in UFC history (19), is one of the most experienced UFC fighters of all time. He’s been in the game for a while, but in fights where Magny is favored by -150 odds or tighter, he’s just 3-2. For now, the line has Magny has a -120 favorite. I expect that line to swing toward Rodriguez eventually, but in the meantime, there’s solid value on D-Rod as the underdog. 
  • “The Haitian Sensation” had a good stretch of stoppage victories in the prime of his career, but we haven’t seen him secure a victory inside the distance since 2018 when he stopped Craig White in the first round at UFC Liverpool. Since that event, Magny has a 5-3 record, with two of his losses coming via stoppage. It seems unlikely Magny becomes the guy to hand Rodriguez his first career stoppage loss. If we operate with that baseline, I’m leaning in the direction of Rodriguez, who should be able to overwhelm Magny with volume and power. 
  • Magny’s last three fights have come against Shavkat Rakhmonov (loss – submission), Max Griffin (win – split decision) and Geoff Neal (win – unanimous decision). 

Pick: Rodriguez by decision (+225)

Josh Parisian vs Chase Sherman Odds & Picks

Chase Sherman-138
Josh Parisian+110

I won’t lie to you folks, this heavyweight bout featuring Chase Sherman (15-10) and Josh Parisian (15-5) won’t be a master class by any stretch of the imagination. That said, the odds are tight, so let’s see if we can’t win some money on this rumble between two underachieving big boys. 

Sherman: Need to Knows
  • “The Vanilla Gorilla” is 4-9 in the UFC, but his lousy record doesn’t tell the full story. The 32-year-old is decently spry for a heavyweight and should hold a speed advantage over the bulkier Parisian. Since he returned to the UFC in 2020, he’s shown more composure on the feet, timing up his hooks and elbows while maintaining a decent gas tank through 15 minutes. Sherman’s best bet is to hang on the outside and pepper Parisian with punches. If this bout shifts into the pocket, Parisian gets an edge. 
  • Win or lose, 21 of Sherman’s 26 pro fights have ended inside the distance (80.8 percent), though it’s worth noting two of his five most recent fights have lasted the full 15 minutes. The Vanilla Gorilla has just one career decision victory, so if you are live-betting this one and get the sense it’s headed for the third round, hammer Parisian. The smarter bet, in my opinion, is to bet UNDER 1.5 rounds.
  • Sherman’s last three fights have come against Jared Vanderaa (win – technical knockout), Alexandr Romanov (loss – submission) and Jake Collier (loss – submission).
Parisian: Need to Knows
  • Parisian isn’t the most intelligent fighter. He’s aggressive – and active – but his knack for throwing fists of fury can work against him. Against Alan Baudot at UFC Vegas 57, the 33-year-old got a little too cheeky with his spinning strikes and walked into a massive hammerfist. After Parisian tumbled to the canvas, he flipped the momentum, mauling Baudot into a second-round pummel victory. If Parisian sticks to his game plan vs Sherman (gliding in close, staying active and relying on his heavy chin), there’s a good chance he winds up with a TKO/KO victory. Any grappling scrambles would also benefit Parisian. 
  • Parisian’s last four fights have gone OVER 1.5 rounds, but we’re still banking on someone hitting the canvas in this bout – it’s just too tailored to a knockout finish. Both guys are active on the feet (Parisian is better on the mat) and neither guy is especially keen on defending significant strikes. Parisian is particularly terrible at defending significant strikes (41 percent), so we’re going to pick Sherman for the time being.
  • The West Virginia native’s last three fights were against Baudot (win – technical knockout), Don’Tale Mayes (loss – technical knockout) and Roque Martinez (win – split decision).

Pick: Sherman by kO/TKO (+135)

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