The UFC events are coming fast and furious as we round out 2022. On November 5, we’ll see two of the world’s best female strawweights square off. Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2) and Amanda Lemos (12-2-1) will headline the main card at the Apex in Las Vegas.
The bout between Rodriguez, the third-ranked 115-pounder, and Lemos, ranked seventh, will be a five-round main event at UFC Vegas 64. The prelims for the card begin at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card starting at 8 p.m.
This matchup has future title-shot implications. The women’s strawweight champion, Carla Esparza, is fighting at UFC 281 vs Weili Zhang. Depending on how that bout plays out – and after the results of UFC Vegas 64 – we could see one of Lemos or Rodriguez fighting for the strap very soon.
Rodriguez has been on a heater coming into this event. After losing to Esparza by split decision at UFC Fight Island 3, the Brazilian has rattled off four consecutive victories (three decisions, one TKO). During those four fights, she alternated between moderate favorite and moderate underdog status.
Lemos, also from Brazil, has brought plenty of thrills since joining the UFC in 2017. She has a 6-2 UFC record with four stoppage victories, a rarity in the strawweight division. Lemos cashed as a -300 favorite in her last fight vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez, winning by second-round submission at UFC on ABC 3.
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Lemos Odds
Sportsbook lists Rodriguez as the -230 favorite in the Rodriguez vs Lemos odds, while Lemos remains a +185 underdog.
The tightest odds of the card can be found in the co-main event between welterweights Daniel Rodriguez (EVEN) and Neil Magny (-120).
Shanna Young (+500) is the biggest underdog of the card in her women's flyweight bout vs Miranda Maverick (-800)
Rodriguez was favored at -180 in her bout vs Esparza at UFC Fight Island 3. While she lost that one by split decision, the Brazilian has since rallied for four straight wins, cashing as the underdog twice (+270 vs Amanda Ribas and +165 vs Mackenzie Dern) during that span. Rodriguez’s -230 status represents the third-heaviest chalk of her career, behind only her wins over Jessica Aguilar (-340) at UFC on ESPN 2 and Waterson-Gomez (-225) at UFC Vegas 26.
Lemos, like Rodriguez, has alternated between underdog and chalk lately. She was a +190 underdog – the longest odds of her UFC career – ahead of her stoppage loss to Jessica Andrade at UFC Vegas 52. Lemos’ lone other UFC loss came against Leslie Smith at UFC Fight Night 113, where she closed as a +175 underdog.
Our odds calculator tells us Rodriguez’s -230 status awards her an implied win probability of 69.70 percent. That means a $10 bet on the favorite pays out $14.35. Lemos’ +185 status gives her an implied win probability of 35.09 percent, and a $10 bet on her pays out $28.50.
Pick: Rodriguez by decision (+135)
Neil Magny vs Daniel Rodriguez Odds & Pick
The co-main event features a welterweight bout between Neil Magny (26-9) and Daniel Rodriguez (17-2).
Pick: Rodriguez by decision (+225)
Josh Parisian vs Chase Sherman Odds & Picks
I won’t lie to you folks, this heavyweight bout featuring Chase Sherman (15-10) and Josh Parisian (15-5) won’t be a master class by any stretch of the imagination. That said, the odds are tight, so let’s see if we can’t win some money on this rumble between two underachieving big boys.