UFC 237: Namajunas vs Andrade Odds and Picks

The UFC returns to the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil for the first time in nearly a year to the day for UFC 237. The women’s strawweight belt is on the line in the main event as “Thug” Rose Namajunas makes her second title defense against Jessica “Bate Estaca” Andrade. Namajunas is in action for the first time since UFC 223 in April of last year and has +110 odds to remain champion with the challenger Andrade coming back as a -140 favorite. I have a breakdown and pick for each fight on the main card.

Namajunas vs Andrade Fight Center

Rose Namajunas vs Jessica Andrade

Namajunas (+110) is looking for her first-ever four-fight winning streak in her career. Thug shocked the MMA world with her stunning first-round knockout victory over Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 217 in November of 2017 to win the belt as a +525 underdog. She followed that up with a unanimous-decision victory over Joanna at UFC 223 in April of last year.

The 26-year-old is very light on her feet, constantly bouncing in and out of range, and she utilizes her length well with her jab. Additionally, she has really good reflexes, allowing her to avoid 60 percent of her opponent’s strikes while countering when she gets out of range. Rose also has fantastic head movement that enables her to roll with punches and she’s never been knocked out in her career.

Andrade (-140) is also looking for a four-fight winning streak in the UFC, which would be her first since she won five in a row in 2012. Bate Estaca was Joanna’s last title defense, back at UFC 211, before she lost to Namajunas at UFC 223. Andrade lost that bout by unanimous decision, snapping a three-fight winning streak, but since then, she has picked up three more wins in a row.

The Brazil native has extreme power for the strawweight division and she stalks forward, somewhat flat-footed, looking to get in an area where she can let her hands fly. Occasionally, she will storm forward throwing wild hooks looking for the knockout but will drop her hands in doing so, leaving her vulnerable to counter-strikes. Additionally, she doesn’t have a lot of head movement and has been knocked out twice in her career.

A fantastic title fight as Andrade has legit one-punch knockout power that was on full display when she put Karolina Kowalkiewicz to sleep in the first round of their UFC 228 bout. However, Namajunas has fantastic head and foot movement that allows her to avoid 60 percent of strikes against. I think Andrade’s lack of head movement will be an issue as Rose will be light on her feet, avoiding strikes while constantly hitting a non-moving target.

Prediction: Rose Namajunas (+110) via decision

Namajunas vs Andrade Fight Center

For more on this fight, check out my odds analysis article.

Jared Cannonier vs Anderson Silva

Cannonier (-140) is eyeing back-to-back wins in the UFC for the first time since 2016 and for just the second time overall in the organization. “The Killa Gorilla” spent the majority of his career at heavyweight before dropping down to light heavyweight in 2016 and made his middleweight debut at UFC 230 in November last year. At middleweight, he earned a second-round knockout over David Branch.

The 35-year-old is very strong for the middleweight division, having fought at heavyweight and light heavyweight for most of his career. He tends to load up on his strikes and throw with full force on his overhand right without much setup. Additionally, when strikes are thrown at him, he is often slow to react. However, if he does find a place for his hands to land, it is typically all over as seven of his 11 professional wins have come by knockout.

Silva (+110) has won just one of his last seven fights, losing five and having one no contest. However, his defeats came against former middleweight champion Chris Weidman (twice), former middleweight champion Michael Bisping, current heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier and current interim middleweight champion Israel Adesanya.

“The Spider” is considered one of the greatest fighters of all time, rattling off 16 straight wins in the UFC before his current rough stretch. Silva has remarkable reflexes and the ability to judge distances to always stay out of his opponent’s range and know exactly when he can strike. He absorbs just 1.96 significant strikes per minute and makes his opponents miss 61 percent of their strikes while he lands 62 percent of his strikes.

Although Cannonier will have the size and power advantage, Silva will have the experience and fight IQ advantage. The Killa Gorilla doesn’t typically string together strikes but rather loads up on big lunging strikes to earn the knockout, which isn’t a good strategy against the Spider, who made his career by making his opponents miss strikes and punishing them for it.

Prediction: Anderson Silva (+110) via decision

Cannonier vs Silva Fight Center

Jose Aldo vs Alexander Volkanovski

Aldo (-145) is seeking his third straight win in the UFC for the first time since he won seven in a row from 2011 to 2014 before being knocked out at UFC 194 in 2015 by Conor McGregor. “Junior” has just three losses in the Octagon. He was knocked out by McGregor and then was knocked out in consecutive bouts against current featherweight champion Max Holloway. Since his most recent loss to Holloway, he has rattled off back-to-back knockout wins.

The former featherweight champion has extreme power in his strikes, with 17 of his 28 professional wins ending in knockout. He has great footwork that allows him to avoid 66 percent of opponent strikes and he lands 3.53 strikes per minute. Additionally, Aldo defends 92 percent of takedown attempts, which will be key for this fight, and he has only been brought to the floor six times over his 13 UFC fights.

Volkanovski (+115) is looking to remain perfect in the UFC as he has won six straight fights since joining the organization in 2016. He has finished half of those six scraps, each by knockout, while going to the judges’ scorecards in the other three. Most recently, “The Great” earned a second-round knockout win over Chad Mendes at UFC 232.

The 30-year-old fights long, with his kicks and straight punches. He does a good job at cutting down the cage, looking to close the distance on his opponents so he can land his heavy strikes, with 11 of his 19 professional wins ending in knockout. Additionally, he likes to get in exchanges with his counterparts, averaging 6.06 strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.61. He also has good wrestling, averaging 3.37 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing multiple takedowns in five of his six fights in the Octagon.

Volkanovski was rocked against Chad Mendes in their UFC 232 bout and was dropped, but he recovered quickly and earned the knockout later in that round, mostly because Mendes gassed out. Aldo won’t tire as he has six five-round decision wins in his UFC career and does a good job avoiding heavy strikes. The Australia native tends to close the distance looking to counter, but Junior does a terrific job of landing strikes and getting out of harm’s way.

Prediction: Jose Aldo (-145) via knockout

Aldo vs Volkanovski Fight Center

Thiago Alves vs Laureano Staropoli

Alves (-115) is aiming to string together consecutive wins for the first time since he won two in a row from 2014 into 2015. “Pitbull” has dropped four of his last six fights but earned a split-decision victory over Max Griffin earlier this year in February. The 35-year-old fought Georges St-Pierre at UFC 100 for the welterweight belt, but lost and has gone just 6-8 in his last 14, beginning with that bout.

As his nickname suggests, Pitbull is a hard-nosed fighter who likes to get into wild brawls with his opponents. Of his 23 professional wins, 13 have ended in knockout and he has three losses in that manner as well. Alves moves well and has good head movement; however, he tends to over-extend on his strikes and leaves them out long after throwing them, which leaves him vulnerable to over-the-top counters.

Staropoli (-115) is looking to move to 2-0 in the UFC after earning a unanimous-decision victory in his debut in November of last year. “El Matador” entered the Octagon with a 7-1 record and a five-fight winning streak that was extended to six when he beat Hector Aldana. The UFC debut was the first time he had a fight go to the judges’ scorecards in his career.

The 26-year-old is a big fighter for the welterweight division, standing six-foot-one, and he uses his length well with long punches and kicks. He is very light on his feet, dancing on the outside before storming forward with a flurry of punches looking to put his opponent away. Of his eight professional victories, five have been knockout finishes. When he throws his punches, he tends to drop his back hand, which leaves him open to quick counters.

Don’t expect this fight to hit the floor as Alves averages 0.7 takedowns per 15 minutes and has only landed 13 over his 25 UFC bouts, while Staropoli didn’t attempt a single takedown in his debut. Both fighters have good movements but are vulnerable to counter-strikes, but they like to push the pace rather than sitting back and countering. Grab some popcorn and enjoy this fight of the night candidate.

Prediction: Laureano Staropoli (-115) via decision

Alves vs Staropoli Fight Center

Francisco Trinaldo vs Diego Ferreira

*This fight will not be taking place as Diego Ferriera has pulled out with kidney stones*

Trinaldo (+150) is looking to put an end to his win-one, lose-win streak over his last four fights and pick up two wins in a row for the first time since he won seven straight from 2014 through 2016. “Massaranduba” is making his 19th walk to the Octagon and he brings with him a record of 13-5 in the UFC and 23-6 overall.

The 40-year-old is a patient fighter who slowly inches forward to cut down the size of the cage. He is not typically the first one to exchange in striking range but will counter with a flurry of strikes after the first punch is thrown. Additionally, his reaction has slowed over his career and avoiding that first strike isn’t happening as frequently as it once did.

Ferreira (-185) is seeking a fifth win in a row after losing back-to-back fights to Beneil Dariush and Dustin Poirier in 2014 and 2015, the only two losses in his professional career. Since then, he has picked up four wins in a row, including two fights ending by knockout and two that went to the judges’ scorecards.

The Brazil native throws a lot of kicks, especially to the body, which slows his opponents as the fight progresses. He is a forward-marching fighter who attempts to impose his will on his opponents and break them mentally. He averages 4.7 strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.03 and makes his opponents miss 59 percent of attempts against.

Two Brazilian strikers kick off the main card and will surely entertain the local crowd. Expect Ferriera to push the pace, while Trinaldo will be loading up to explode forward on counter-strikes. Ferriera showed off his wrestling skills against Kyle Nelson at UFC 231 and may take the fight there if Trinaldo is getting the better of him on the feet.

Prediction: Diego Ferreira (-185) via decision

Trinaldo vs Ferreira Fight Center

Irene Aldana vs Bethe Correia

Aldana (-360) is looking to pick up her third straight victory in the UFC after dropping her first two bouts in the Octagon. The Mexico native fell to Leslie Smith and Kaylyn Chookagian before rattling off back-to-back wins over Talita Bernardo and Lucie Pudilova. All four of her bouts in the UFC have gone to the judges’ scorecards with two ending by unanimous decision and two in split decision. She earned a win in both manners.

She has very good head movement and footwork, however, she still takes a lot of damage, absorbing 7.08 strikes per minute. That being said, she has only been knocked out twice in her career and not since 2015. Aldana throws long straight punches that are fairly accurate, landing 6.35 strikes per minute, but sometimes she leaves those strikes out there which allows her to be countered.

Correia (+270) is returning to the Octagon for the first time in nearly two years and is seeking her first victory since 2016. “Pitbull” had an undefeated record before fighting Ronda Rousey at UFC 190 in 2015 and since then she is sporting a record of 1-3-1, including the loss to Rousey. The last time she fought in the Octagon, she was knocked out in the third round against Holly Holm.

The 35-year-old is a passive fighter, staying on the outside waiting for her opponents to move forward before she will engage in a striking exchange. When she does let her hands go, there’s not a lot behind them as she has just two knockout victories to her name. She has been outstruck in three of her last five fights, including getting outstruck 153-68 in her majority draw vs Marion Renau in March 2017.

These two women are going to keep this fight standing and hopefully get into some pretty exciting exchanges. Correia stays on the outside daring her opponents to come in and strike but when they do she has little to offer and sometimes just retreats. I think Aldana is going to march her down and consistently land strikes.

Prediction: Irene Aldana (-360) via decision

Here’s a full list of odds for UFC 237: Namajunas vs Andrade: