Jamahal Hill (left) is favored in the Santos vs Hill odds

Santos vs Hill Odds & Picks: Sweet Dreams Favored

Some heavy hitters will do battle at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday as Thiago Santos (22-10) squares off against Jamahal Hill (10-1) in a highly anticipated five-round light heavyweight bout. 

Preliminary bouts begin at 7 p.m. ET and the main card kicks off at 10 p.m., with Hill the resounding -275 favorite in Santos vs Hill odds. 

Sportsbook has you covered for any and all Santos vs Hill betting, as well as other UFC odds, including Usman vs Edwards II odds and picks.

Santos vs Hill Betting Notes

Over the years, “Marreta,” currently ranked sixth, did a good job establishing himself as one of the UFC’s most fearsome fighters at 205 pounds, but things have come unglued lately, particularly after Santos lost to Jon Jones by split decision at UFC 239. 

Since that fateful defeat to Jones, it’s been nothing but pain for the 38-year-old, who’s now lost three of his last four bouts. His most recent loss came in a five-round decision snooze-fest vs Magomed Ankalaev at the Apex in March. 

Officially past his prime, the underdog Santos (+265) is looking to prove he’s still got some juice in him, though a tough test awaits against Hill (-350), the UFC’s 10th-best light heavyweight. “Sweet Dreams” has blossomed into a fabulous knockout artist, winning three of his last four fights by KO, with his most recent handiwork resulting in a physics-defying knockout of Johnny Walker. 

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Hill Odds

Sportsbook lists Hill as the -350 favorite, with Santos lagging behind as the +265 underdog.

Fight fans looking for a big payout can peek at an interesting lightweight bout, where Erick Gonzalez slides in as a massive +600 underdog against Terrance McKinney (-1100).

The tightest odds on the card appear in a women’s bantamweight showdown between Stephanie Egger (-120) and Mayra Bueno Silva (EVEN).

Bet On Santos vs Hill Here

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Hill Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Hill Betting Lines And Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Light Heavyweight – Jamahal Hill (-350) vs Thiago Santos (+265)
  • Welterweight – Vicente Luque (-200) vs Geoff Neal (+157)
  • Heavyweight – Zac Pauga (-275) vs Mohammed Usman (+220)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Juliana Miller (-130) vs Brogan Walker-Sanchez (+110)
  • Heavyweight – Sergei Spivak (-310) vs Augusto Sakai (+240)
  • Prelims
  • Women’s Flyweight – Ariane Lipski (-190) vs Priscila Cachoeira (+155)
  • Middleweight – Michal Oleksiejczuk (-800) vs Sam Alvey (+500)
  • Lightweight – Terrance McKinney (-1100) vs Erick Gonzalez (+600)
  • Welterweight – Bryan Battle (-310) vs Takashi Sato (+240)
  • Welterweight – Josh Quinlan (-220) vs Jason Witt (+180)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Cory McKenna (-210) vs Miranda Granger (+168)
  • Women’s Bantamweight – Stephanie Egger (-120) vs Mayra Bueno Silva (EVEN)

Odds as of August 6 via Sportsbook

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UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Hill Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: August 6, 7 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, Cable Provider

Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill Odds & Pick

Jamahal Hill-350
Thiago Santos+265

Hill has been the favorite in five of his six career UFC fights, but never by as much as his -275 odds vs Santos. The 31-year-old is coming off consecutive vicious knockouts of Walker (-235) and Jimmy Crute (+150), in which he earned Performance of the Night both times.

Santos is on a brutal skid, having lost four of his last five, with his only win a decision victory over Walker. The Brazilian was a +450 underdog in his last fight vs Ankalaev, which initially gave bettors some value since it seemed possible Santos’ experience could carry him to victory. Instead, Marreta settled for a decision loss. 

Santos: Need to Knows
  • Santos hasn’t been finished by strikes since 2016. He’s been finished by several submissions since then, but Hill is unlikely to execute such a move, meaning this fight will become a standup battle, where we like the Brazilian’s chin to hold up and the fight to go OVER 2.5 rounds. 
  • Marreta has plenty of power in his strikes, and he loves to throw high kicks. Against a southpaw like Hill, watch for Santos to chop that lead leg and open up some kickboxing combos. 
  • At 38 years old, Santos’ gas tank is a little questionable. He’s coming off a full 25-minute fight vs Ankalaev, but that matchup included tons of wrestling. In a striking war with Hill, watch for Santos’ pace early on. If he throws for volume early, there’s a strong chance his aggressive, lunging striking style backfires for some counterpunch opportunities. 
  • Santos’ last three fights have come against Ankalaev (loss – unanimous decision), Walker (win – unanimous decision) and Aleksander Rakic (loss – unanimous decision). 
Hill: Need to Knows
  • Hill is a lightning-fast striker, known for blasting opponents with sharp hooks and overhands. Using his southpaw stance, Sweet Dreams often explodes out of the guard with a lead hook, a move that knocked down – and ultimately knocked out – Jimmy Crute. The same right hand, this time from an orthodox look, put out Walker at UFC Vegas 48. 
  • The 31-year-old will likely hunt a finish. He’s a supremely confident fighter who closes off the center of the Octagon and pressures his opponent toward the cage. Even in his injury-stoppage loss to Paul Craig at UFC 263, Hill engaged immediately and looked comfortable tangling in the clinch before his arm gave out on the ground. 
  • Hill’s average fight time of 5:12 is the fourth-shortest among active light heavyweights, which emphasizes his status as a knockout fighter. Santos’ average fight time sits at 16:39, the longest in division history. These two fighters have very different styles, though since Hill is the chalk, the bout is favored to go UNDER 2.5 rounds (-170).  
  • Hill’s last three fights were vs Walker (win – knockout), Crute (win – technical knockout) and Craig (loss – injury stoppage).

Pick: Hill (-350), OVER 2.5 Rounds (+130)

Vicente Luque vs Geoff Neal Odds & Pick

Vicente Luque-200
Geoff Neal+157

A welterweight bout between Vicente Luque (21-8-1) and Geoff Neal (14-4) is the co-main at UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Hill. The Brazilian enters as the -200 favorite, leaving Neal at +157. 

This fight is a clever bit of matchmaking by the UFC. Since Luque, ranked sixth, lost his last bout to Belal Muhammad, a test against Neal, the No. 13 welterweight, offers a chance for a rebound performance.

luque: Need to Knows
  • “The Silent Assassin” had his four-fight finish streak halted by the well-rounded Muhammad. In that five-round fight, Luque was aggressive but got caught off guard by some of Belal’s striking exchanges, while also surrendering to a few takedowns. Since Neal doesn’t pose a grappling threat, expect Luque to come out of the gates with even less restraint on his pressure. 
  • While Luque is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and boasts nine career wins by submission, he’s a vicious striker whose eight wins by KO/TKO rank tied for second among active welterweights. Given the 30-year-old’s reputation for flashiness, in terms of knockouts and submissions, we’re expecting this three-round fight NOT to go the distance (-145). 
  • The Brazilian meshes patience and aggression in how he cuts opponents off in the Octagon. Luque often controls the canvas with a sideways stance, methodically shifting side to side to prevent opposing fighters from escaping his pressure, even if he’s not throwing strikes.
  • Luque’s last three fights were against Muhammad (loss – unanimous decision), Michael Chiesa (win – submission) and Tyron Woodley (win – submission).
Neal: Need to Knows
  • Luque isn’t necessarily the smartest fighter, given his sometimes-risky style, but he’s never been finished in the UFC. “Handz of Steel” will have to earn his nickname Saturday against an opponent who absorbs strikes (5.18 per minute) at the same clip he throws them (5.30 per minute) and keeps on chugging. 
  • Neal tires more quickly than Luque has in the past. In the fifth round of his matchup vs Wonderboy Thompson, Neal had lost the first four rounds but landed some good shots in the fifth. With 30 seconds to go, Neal’s mouth was open and he looked stiff, seemingly unable to capitalize on his lone opportunity.
  • The 31-year-old last recorded a finish in 2019 vs Mike Perry. In that fight, Perry pushed Neal to the pence with his positioning – just as Luque is expected to do – but Neal landed a blistering left high kick that led to the finish. Luque likes to pressure his opponent but keep the volume low. Watch for Neal to blast out of that lull in competition with a big shot. 
  • Neal’s last three fights have come against Santiago Ponzinibbio (win – split decision), Neil Magny (loss – unanimous decision) and Thompson (loss – unanimous decision).

Pick: Luque by KO/TKO (+155)

Bryan Battle vs Takashi Sato Odds & Pick

Bryan Battle-310
Takashi Sato+240

An interesting prelim fight will take place Saturday between welterweights Bryan Battle (7-1) and Takashi Sato (16-5). Battle, the Ultimate Fighter’s season 29 winner, is the -310 favorite, while Sato enters as the +240 underdog. 

Battle: Need to Knows
  • Battle holds a sizable four-inch reach advantage over Sato, which should help “Pooh Bear” stay at range and pepper Sato with those long front kicks he loves so much. 
  • The 27-year-old has an underrated ground game, which he flashed under some pressure in the TUF finale vs Gilbert Urbina. Battle’s conditioning won out in that matchup and he eventually secured a deadly rear naked choke, which doesn’t bode well for Sato, who’s lost by submission twice in the UFC.
  • Battle has won his first two fights in the UFC vs Tresean Gore (unanimous decision) and Urbina (submission). He also won two more fights on The Ultimate Fighter by unanimous decision and ninja choke, respectively. 
Sato: Need to Knows
  • Sato hasn’t had the best run since joining the UFC in 2019. “Ten” has recorded two wins and three losses, while absorbing nearly twice as many strikes (4.16 per minute) as he has landed (2.28 per minute). 
  • The southpaw is very light on his feet, which will help his chances vs Battle. Sato had lots of success in his UFC debut against Ben Saunders – also an opponent with a longer reach – by stepping up and piecing together combos. He can’t be a one-and-done guy against Battle because he’s not strong enough. Punches in bunches are the key to victory for Sato.
  • The Japanese-born fighter’s last three bouts were against Gunnar Nelson (loss – unanimous decision), Miguel Baeza (loss – submission) and Jason Witt (win – knockout). 

Pick: Battle by submission (+265)

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