Alexa Grasso is a solid underdog bet vs Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko vs Grasso Odds & Pick: A Special Day For A 2nd Upset

This rematch has a little more flavor to it.

After losing her women's flyweight belt at UFC 285, Valentina Shevchenko will try to steal it back from Alexa Grasso in an action-packed Fight Night event on Saturday, Mexican Independence Day.

At 35 years old, the UFC women's flyweight GOAT is a -170 favorite in the Shevchenko vs Grasso odds.

Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso Betting Odds

Shevchenko vs Grasso Odds
Valentina Shevchenko-170
Alexa Grasso+140

Odds as of Sept. 11

Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Shevchenko's -170 odds (62.96% implied chance) pays out $158.82. The same $100 on Grasso at +140 (41.67% implied chance) pays out $240.

How To Watch UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs Grasso

UFC fans are in for a treat. It's rare we get a title fight in a Fight Night event.

  • Date/Time: September 16, 6 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: T-Mobile Arena
  • Where to Watch: ESPN, Cable Provider

Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso Tale Of The Tape

FighterAlexa GrassoValentina Shevchenko
Record16-3 (8-3 UFC)23-4 (12-3 UFC)
Avg. Fight Time14:1217:29
Sig. Strikes Per Minute4.883.29
Sig. Strikes Absorbed Per Minute4.071.99
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes0.382.57
Takedown Accuracy44%64%
Takedown Defense61%72%

Shevchenko vs Grasso Betting Preview: Who Has The Better Chance?

Was UFC 285 a fluke? I think not. Let's dive in. 

How Shevchenko wins

"Bullet" ran into trouble when she traded strikes at the same time as Grasso. The Mexican's punches were snappier, quicker, and landed with more authority. It'll be hard to outbox Grasso in a rematch, so Valentina needs to slow things down.

Leg kicks and punches on exits will help. Despite her age, Shevchenko's strong lower half gives her an advantage with Muay Thai strikes and takedowns. Valentina can regain her 125-pound strap if she can gather momentum gradually as opposed to simply surviving in Grasso's cyclone of attacks.

But if this fight gets fast and aggressive, the ex-champ could tire and falter.

How Grasso Wins

Engage. Engage. Engage. When Grasso pushed the pace at UFC 285, she opened up a world of success, whether it came from traditional boxing exchanges or clever combos to the body and chin.

Whenever Grasso turned up the heat, Shevchenko went instantly to the takedown. That strategy worked for Valentina until that fateful fourth round, when Grasso caught one of Shevchenko's kicks and spun it into a championship-winning submission. I'll bet Shevchenko shows the champ a little more respect on the ground and in the clinch this time around.

And that's a great development for Grasso, who can win the rematch by exposing Valentina with counterpunches. The Mexican has a speed advantage. When Shevchenko enters, Grasso should enter immediately. That's how good things will happen. 

Shevchenko vs Grasso Betting Pick

I like Grasso again this time around. Valentina might be stronger and sturdier, but Grasso's quickness makes this a dangerous fight. 

At moderate plus money, this is an easy pick for me.

Pick: Grasso to win (+140)