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UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz Prop Odds

Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz are expected to give fight fans some fireworks when they clash at UFC 196. McGregor is coming in as a hefty favorite and offers little value (except within parlays), so you’ll need to find betting angles elsewhere.

Our MMA fight analysis features some of the more intriguing props that may be worth a look when the two square off at the MGM Grand on Saturday.

Conor McGregor Wins In Round 2 (+300)

McGregor simply does not allow fights to make it to the judges. Only one of his 21 career fights has ever gone the distance, a unanimous decision victory over Max Holloway. With McGregor carrying extra weight on his frame and Diaz with a shorten camp, the odds of this fight lasting five rounds are pretty slim.

Diaz has an iron chin as the Stockton-native has lost just one of his 28 career fights via T/KO. That’s not to say that Diaz can’t get knocked out, but it means it will not be an easy task for McGregor.

This is also the first time in McGregor’s career that he will be at a reach disadvantage, which could mean that it takes him longer to find his striking range.

The Irishman winning within the second round is currently +300 at 5Dimes. You can also grab McGregor winning within the first at +175, but Diaz’ chin could easily get him through the first five minutes.

Fighters Touch Glove Before Fight (+330)

With all the trash talk leading up to this fight, many would expect to see men not touch gloves when the referee reads off the rules. However, McGregor has usually been very good at this. Despite his trash talking and brash attitude, McGregor is respectful of the sport of MMA and has offered his gloves frequently in the past. Memorably, McGregor flipped off Dennis Siver before their fight when he wouldn’t touch gloves.

Diaz was trained by the Gracie family in Jiu-Jitsu, the legendary family that basically put BJJ on the map in North America. There is certainly a level of respect that can be extrapolated from that relationship, but Nate is still a Diaz brother and he has been trash-talking McGregor for a long time now.

The two fighters touching gloves before the fight is currently listed at +330 at 5Dimes with them not touching gloves coming back at -490.

Diaz Wins By Submission (+800)

As much as we all expect a standup war between these two fighters, there is little doubt that Diaz holds a considerable edge on the ground. Diaz is great at submissions with his long limbs and BJJ black belt helping him pick up 11 career wins via tapout. However, Diaz has a less-than-adequate wrestling game that has led to his deadliest piece of his arsenal to go unused.

Though McGregor is going to come into this fight packed with muscle, we have seen in the Chad Mendes fight that The Notorious One can be taken down. Mendes was able to take McGregor down several times during that fight and do a lot of work.

Diaz winning by submission at +800 is mighty tempting because that is the one area that he has a huge advantage in against McGregor. If Diaz decides that it is not a great decision to stand and throw with Conor, then maybe he can use his submission skills to his advantage.

UFC 196: Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz Prop Odds
  • Fighters touch gloves before fight +330
  • Fighters don’t touch gloves before fight -490
Odds as of March 4 at 5Dimes
  • Clock stoppage due to eye poke +375
  • No clock stoppage due to eye poke -565
  • McGregor/Diaz starts round 3 +117
  • McGregor/Diaz does not start round 3 -147
  • McGregor wins by T/KO -270
  • Any other result +190
  • Diaz wins by submission +800
  • Any other result -1700
  • McGregor wins in round 2 +300
  • Any other result -420
  • McGregor/Diaz draw +22500
  • Fight not a draw -67500
  • Diaz wins inside distance +585
  • Not Diaz inside distance -1205
  • Diaz has more takedowns +180
  • McGregor has more takedowns -260