UFC 248: Adesanya vs Romero Odds and Picks

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, is the site of UFC 248: Adesanya vs Romero. This event is set to take place on March 7 with the middleweight title up for grabs in the main event when Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya makes his first title defense against Yoel “Soldier of God” Romero. The undefeated Nigerian is a -280 favorite to retain his belt, with the 42-year-old Cuban coming back as a +220 underdog.

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Israel Adesanya vs Yoel Romero

Adesanya (-280) has had a meteoric rise in the UFC, making his debut in February 2018 and needing just 20 months to be crowned champion with his second-round knockout win over Robert Whittaker last October. Looking to put the first loss on the champion’s record is Romero (+220), who has lost three of his last four, including two in a row, although all were narrow decision defeats that could have been scored in his favor.

The Last Stylebender is an elite kickboxer, fighting extremely long with crisp jabs and kicks. With his ability to maintain distance, his opponents often have to lunge in to try to land a strike, and they often don’t hit the mark or he meets them with a strike of his own. All of this has resulted in Adesanya outstriking his opponents in each of his seven UFC fights. He also stuffs 85 percent of takedown attempts, having only been brought to the floor once in his last four bouts. This is an important note as Romero is an Olympic wrestler averaging 1.79 takedowns per 15 minutes, including 10 takedowns over his last five fights. The Soldier of God also has ridiculous explosive power throwing flying knees and powerful punches, leading to knockouts in 11 of his 13 wins.

Prediction: Israel Adesanya (-280) via knockout

Odds as of March 6 at Sportsbook

Zhang Weili vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk

A wild 2019 saw the women’s strawweight title change hands twice, with Jessica Andrade knocking out Rose Namajunas in May but then suffering the same fate against Zhang “Magnum” Weili (-190) in August. That victory was the 20th in a row for Weili since dropping her pro debut in a controversial decision. She will be in tough against the former strawweight queen, Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+155), who has dropped three of her last five but had five title defenses prior to this stretch.

The China native has great striking with powerful punches and kicks. She also has an outstanding fight IQ and her aggression is matched by very few in the UFC. When her foes engage with her, she stands her ground and fires heavy strikes. Weili has also landed at least one takedown in three of her four UFC fights; she didn’t take down Andrade in a fight that ended with a knockout 42 seconds in. Meanwhile, the Poland native is an aggressive Muay Thai fighter, averaging 6.18 significant strikes per minute, while only absorbing 2.73. Despite all this output, she has just four knockout wins on her record and hasn’t earned a win in that manner since 2015.

Prediction: Zhang Weili (-190) via knockout

Odds as of March 6 at Sportsbook

Beneil Dariush vs Drakkar Klose

A winning streak will come to an end when Beneil Dariush (-165) collides with Drakkar Klose (+135). Dariush began his UFC career with an impressive 8-2 record but had a three-fight span during which he went 0-2-1 with two knockout losses. He has come out on the other side of that slide, though, entering this fight having won three straight. Meanwhile, Klose fell in his third walk to the Octagon in a decision defeat to David Teymur, the only loss on his record, but is currently riding a three-fight winning streak.

The 30-year-old Dariush has good kicks and he mixes them up well, going from low to high and keeping his opponents off balance. In doing so, though, he often drops his hands, which leaves him vulnerable to counters over the top. When he’s in trouble in striking exchanges, he falls back to his grappling, which is quite good. He averages 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes and eight of his 17 pro wins have been via submission. Klose is a lot more aggressive, stalking his foes looking for opportunities to let his hands fly. Many times, though, he’s very hesitant to throw his punches and can be a little wild when he decides to, which leads to him getting clinched against the fence and eventually dragged to the floor.

Prediction: Beneil Dariush (-165) via decision

Odds as of March 6 at Sportsbook

Neil Magny vs Li Jingliang

Neil Magny (+150) makes his return to the Octagon for the first time since his fourth-round knockout loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio in November 2018. Prior to that, he had been on a two-fight winning streak, including a first-round knockout of Craig White in May 2018. Meanwhile, Li “The Leech” Jingliang (-185) has collected three consecutive wins, with back-to-back knockouts, and is 7-1 overall in his last eight.

The American, Magny, is a wiry and long fighter, standing six-foot-three with an 80-inch reach. He uses that reach well with his crisp jab, which he employs to try to set up his heavier right hand. That said, he sometimes waits far too long to let his hands go, looking for the perfect shot. If his opponents pick up on that and rush him, he does a good job of taking fights to the canvas, averaging 2.62 takedowns per 15 minutes. The Leech is a little more aggressive than Magny, but sometimes overextends on his strikes and leaves his punches long, which makes him extremely vulnerable to heavy counters. However, he fights that style without many worries as he has never been knocked out and when he lands on those long punches, his opponents typically go down.

Prediction: Neil Magny (+150) via decision

Odds as of March 6 at Sportsbook

Alex Oliveira vs Max Griffin

Looking to put a stop to his career-long three-fight losing slide is Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira (-145) as he eyes his first victory since September 2018. Most recently, Oliveira suffered a decision loss to Nicolas Dalby last September. Meanwhile, Max “Pain” Griffin (+115) is looking to find some footing after dropping three of his last four and is coming off a decision loss to Alex Morono last October.

Cowboy is a bit of a wild man, getting in the face of his opponents at the start of the fight looking to get in a good old-fashioned brawl. Sometimes he will wait too much on the outside for his opponents to come to him, looking to counter, and that has led to him being outstruck in his last two fights. But when he lands, he does damage with 12 of his 19 pro wins coming by knockout. Griffin will bring the fight to Oliveira, though, averaging 4.22 significant strikes per minute and varying up his long-range kicks with powerful long punches. Pain has a tendency to not sit down on his punches, throwing them without a lot of conviction, which is a dangerous game to play with a powerful counter-striker like Oliveira.   

Prediction: Alex Oliveira (-145) via decision

Odds as of March 6 at Sportsbook

Here’s a look at the rest of the odds for UFC 248: Adesanya vs Romero:

Odds as of March 6 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 6 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 6 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 6 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 6 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 6 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 6 at Sportsbook