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UFC 262 Odds & Predictions: Oliveira vs Chandler for Lightweight Belt

Charles Oliveira (left) is favored in the UFC 262 Odds: Oliveira vs Chandler.

The UFC put on a show in front of a sold-out crowd in late April and will be doing the exact same thing in mid-May for UFC 262. Headlining this pay-per-view is Charles Oliveira taking on Michael Chandler with the vacant lightweight title on the line.

UFC 262 is taking place at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, on May 15. Looking at UFC 262 odds for the main event, it is Oliveira who is the betting favorite over Chandler.

Oliveira has caught fire since his knockout loss to Paul Felder in December 2017. Since then, he is a perfect 8-0 with seven stoppages, leading him to this title fight in his 28th UFC bout.

While it has been a long run in the promotion for Oliveira, this marks just the second walk to the Octagon for Chandler. The former Bellator lightweight champion made his debut in January by making short work of Dan Hooker, launching him immediately into a championship bout.

UFC 262 Odds: Oliveira vs Chandler

Online sportsbook Bovada has released UFC 262 odds with Charles Oliveira listed as the -120 chalk and Michael Chandler coming back as the +100 underdog. This means you would have to wager $120 to profit $100 on an Oliveira victory while a $100 bet on a Chandler win would profit you $100.

Looking at the UFC 262 odds for Oliveira vs Chandler, our sports betting calculator tells us that Oliveira’s odds of -120 represent an implied win probability of 54.55 percent while Chandler’s odds of +100 have an implied win probability of 50.00 percent.

The largest favorite in the UFC 262 odds is in the women’s bantamweight fight between Gina Mazany (-220) and Priscila Cachoeira (+175).

The tightest UFC 262 betting odds come in the prelims with middleweights with Jordan Wright a -105 underdog to Jamie Pickett who is listed at -115.

UFC 262 Betting Odds & Fight Card


UFC 262 Betting Odds & Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Lightweight Championship – Charles Oliveira (-120) vs Michael Chandler (+100)
  • Lightweight – Tony Ferguson (+130) vs Beneil Dariush (-155)
  • Bantamweight – Matt Schnell (-160) vs Rogerio Bontorin (+130)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Katlyn Chookagian (-130) vs Viviane Araujo (+110)
  • Featherweight – Shane Burgos (-155) vs Edson Barboza (+130)
  • Prelims
  • Middleweight – Jacare Souza (-130) vs Andre Muniz (+110)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Andrea Lee (+100) vs Antonina Shevchenko (-120)
  • Featherweight – Lando Vannata (+100) vs Mike Grundy (-120)
  • Middleweight – Jordan Wright (-105) vs Jamie Pickett (-115)
  • Featherweight – Kevin Aguilar (+100) vs Tucker Lutz (-120)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Gina Mazany (-220) vs Priscila Cachoeira (+175)
  • Lightweight – Christos Giagos (-210) vs Sean Soriano (+170)

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New to betting on the fights? Check out our How to Bet on the UFC guide to help you get in the action. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date UFC 262 betting lines.


UFC 262: Oliveira vs Chandler Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: May 15, 6 p.m. ET
  • Location: Houston, Texas
  • Arena: Toyota Center
  • Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN+, PPV

Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Charles Oliveira-120
Michael Chandler +100

It has been a long time in the making for Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (-120) to get his first title shot in his 28th walk to the Octagon. In doing so, he lays his eight-fight winning streak on the line. “Iron” Michael Chandler (+100) needed just one fight in the Octagon to show that he’s worthy of a title shot and has won three fights in a row overall, all by first-round knockout.


Oliveira: Need to Knows
  • We have really seen Oliveira grow up in front of our eyes. He made his UFC debut when he was just 20, scoring a first-round submission win over Darren Elkins. Do Bronx holds a 30-8 record with 27 of his wins coming by finish (eight knockouts, 19 submissions). Seven of his eight losses have been stoppages, with four knockouts and three submissions.
  • He is as well-rounded as they come with elite-level submission skills and creative powerful strikes when standing. What was really on display in his last performance was the evolution in his wrestling game as he took down Tony Ferguson three times with ease.
  • Oliveira’s striking is almost disrespectful to his opponents. He walks straight forward letting his strikes fly, willing to take a shot to land a shot, and then he will decide whether he wants the fight standing or on the floor. He doesn’t have a ton of footwork but if you enter his range, he will throw powerful strikes.
  • On the feet, Do Bronx’s kicks are his main weapon, though his punches are straight and powerful. If the fight hits the floor, he is aggressive in searching for a submission and his top control is suffocating.
  • Oliveira’s last three fights were Jared Gordon (win – knockout), Kevin Lee (win – submission) and Tony Ferguson (win – unanimous decision).


Chandler: Need to Knows
  • Chandler made his bones in Bellator, with 23 of his 27 pro fights coming in that organization where he held the lightweight title. Overall, he is 22-5 with 17 of his wins being stoppages (10 knockouts, seven submissions) while three of his five losses have come by knockout.
  • Iron is known for his high-level wrestling skills but his heavy hands launched him into this title fight. He was a Big 12 wrestler, qualifying for the Div-1 NCAA tournament all four years. On the floor, he has a ferocious ground and pound that led to many of his knockout victories.
  • His striking represents a very common approach that I’m seeing across the UFC. He pressures his opponents with his aggressive forward movement but rarely throws the first punch, rather hoping that his pressure will force his foe to throw in, at which point he counters heavily. If he’s forced to throw first, he tends to storm and throw big hooks.
  • Chandler’s last three fights were Sidney Outlaw (win – knockout), Benson Henderson (win – knockout) and Dan Hooker (win – knockout).

For more on this fight, check out my Oliveira vs Chandler odds analysis article.

Prediction: Charles Oliveira (-120) via submission

Tony Ferguson vs Beneil Dariush Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Tony Ferguson+130
Beneil Dariush-155

For the first time in his career, Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson (+130) enters a fight on a losing streak, coming off back-to-back defeats. Looking to pile another loss on Ferguson’s record is Beneil Dariush (-155), who is riding a six-fight winning streak.


Ferguson: Need to Knows
  • Prior to these most recent losses, Ferguson had been on a 12-fight winning streak and was poised to fight Khabib Nurmagomedov for the lightweight belt. Unfortunately, that fight was cursed as it was canceled five times.
  • Overall, El Cucuy is 25-5 with 20 of his wins being stoppages (12 knockouts, eight submissions). Only two of his losses were stoppages, one by knockout and one by submission. He has incredible conditioning, which has led to him averaging 5.46 significant strikes landed per minute, though he absorbs 3.94.
  • Although Ferguson never really loads up on strikes, his opponents appear as though they were in a fight with a meat grinder afterward – he just has big strong hands that pulverize his foes. He has creative strikes with plenty of spinning attacks and elbows. El Cucuy also has odd footwork, which keeps his foes on edge and creates openings to land.
  • Ferguson’s last three fights were Donald Cerrone (win – knockout), Justin Gaethje (loss – knockout) and Charles Oliveira (loss – unanimous decision).


Dariush: Need to Knows
  • Dariush is currently on his longest winning streak within the UFC at six in a row; his previous high was five. He holds an impressive 20-4 record with 13 of his wins being stoppages (five knockouts, eight submissions). All four of his defeats were finishes, three by knockout and one by submission.
  • Dariush is primarily a wrestler, averaging 2.03 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he secured five takedowns in his last performance, the most in his UFC career. That said, his standup skills have gradually improved and he’s willing to stand in the pocket and strike.
  • Although his striking is still somewhat basic with straight punches while he moves forward, he shouldn’t be disregarded as there is good power behind those strikes. At times he will load up on strikes and abandon defense, but even if he’s rocked, he will continually fight back.
  • Dariush’s last three fights were Drakkar Klose (win – knockout), Scott Holtzman (win – knockout) and Diego Ferreira (win – split decision).

Prediction: Tony Ferguson (+130) via decision

Matt Schnell vs Rogerio Bontorin Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Matt Schnell-160
Rogerio Bontorin+130

Enduring his first-ever losing streak, Rogerio Bontorin (+130) looks to rebound from back-to-back losses. Meanwhile, Matt “Danger” Schnell (-160) suffered his first UFC defeat in December 2019 but picked up a decision win earlier this year.


Schnell: Need to Knows
  • Schnell had been on a four-fight winning streak prior to his first UFC loss. Only five of his 20 pro fights have gone the distance; he has two knockout and eight submission wins and has been knocked out three times and submitted once.
  • Danger feints a lot as he closes the distance. While he doesn’t mind getting into a brawl, he relies a lot on head movement and reflexes to avoid strikes and if he makes a mistake, he’s in a spot where he can take big damage.
  • Schnell puts together strong combinations when he throws. This causes a level of discomfort for opponents in deciding whether they want to test the striking game or go for a takedown, but his submission skills are equally dangerous.
  • Schnell’s last three fights were Jordan Espinosa (win – submission), Alexandre Pantoja (loss – knockout) and Tyson Nam (win – split decision).


Bontorin: Need to Knows
  • Bontorin earned a UFC contract with his submission win on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in 2018. He won two in a row in the UFC prior to his recent skid. Overall, he is 16-3 with only three bouts going the distance and 11 of his 14 stoppages have been submissions.
  • He is big for the flyweight division but this bout will be taking place at bantamweight, which may take some of that size out of the equation. Bontorin’s striking has improved and he has good power, but he tends to load up on the strikes a little too much.
  • However, it is grappling that is the most dangerous aspect of his game. He has good takedowns and superb submission skills on the floor. 
  • Bontorin’s last three fights were Raulian Paiva (win – knockout), Ray Borg (loss – unanimous decision) and Kai Kara France (loss – knockout).

Prediction: Matt Schnell (-160) via decision

Katlyn Chookagian vs Viviane Araujo Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Katlyn Chookagian-130
Viviane Araujo+110

Katlyn “Blonde Fighter” Chookagian (-130) looks for back-to-back wins for the first time since 2019, which earned her a title shot. She is just 2-2 in her last four. Meanwhile, Viviane “Vivi” Araujo (+110) aims to extend her two-fight winning streak and catapult herself into title contention.


Chookagian: Need to Knows
  • Chookagian bounced back from a first-round knockout loss to Jessica Andrade in October to secure a decision win over Cynthia Calvillo one month later. She brings to the cage a 15-4 record with 12 of her victories being decisions. Half of her losses have been knockouts.
  • Although Blonde Fighter showed off her grappling skills in her win over Antonina Shevchenko in May of last year, landing three takedowns, she hasn’t had one in any of her other 11 UFC bouts. On the feet, she averages 4.22 significant strikes per minute, landing just 34 percent, and she absorbs 4.33.
  • She is a tricky fighter because she’s tall and long at five-foot-nine with a 68-inch reach and she’s good defensively, making her opponents miss 63 percent of their strike attempts. Chookagian has good boxing fundamentals but lacks power, with just two knockout wins.
  • Chookagian’s last three fights were Antonina Shevchenko (win – unanimous decision), Jessica Andrade (loss – knockout) and Cynthia Calvillo (win – unanimous decision).


Araujo: Need to Knows
  • A decision loss to Jessica Eye is the only thing that separates Araujo from a perfect UFC record. She is 4-1 in the promotion and 10-2 overall with seven of her wins being finishes (three knockouts, four submissions).
  • Evident in her record, Vivi is a well-rounded fighter, having outstruck three of her five UFC opponents while also averaging 2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes. Araujo also has a 68-inch reach.
  • Unlike her opponent, Vivi sits down on her strikes and instead of being very defensive, she fires a heavy shot the moment her opponents enter her range. In addition to her strong striking, her level change and wrestling technique is equally impressive.
  • Araujo’s last three fights were Jessica Eye (loss – unanimous decision), Montana De La Rosa (win – unanimous decision) and Roxanne Modafferi (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Viviane Araujo (+110) via decision

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Shane Burgos vs Edson Barboza Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Shane Burgos-155
Edson Barboza+130

Expect fireworks in the opening fight of the main card with two hard-hitting featherweights. Edson “Junior” Barboza (+130) searches for consecutive wins for the first time since he won three in a row in 2016-17 while “Hurricane” Shane Burgos (-155) looks to rebound from his unanimous-decision loss to Josh Emmett last June.


Burgos: Need to Knows
  • Burgos bounced back from his first pro loss, a knockout at the hands of Calvin Kattar in January 2018, to win three in a row before his most recent defeat. He sports a 13-2 record with 10 finishes (five knockouts, five submissions).
  • He is a violent and aggressive fighter, averaging an impressive 7.31 significant strikes per minute but also absorbing 5.81. Hurricane also stuffs 89 percent of takedown attempts and is a perfect 1-for-1 in his takedowns, though that came in his UFC debut.
  • Burgos is one of those rare folks who enjoys a war, always moving forward, trusting that his chin will hold up in the line of fire. He has a really good jab and fairly good kicks. However, one big issue is that he will allow his opponent to fire a big shot so he can absorb it and then let his hands fly – a dangerous strategy against powerful strikers.
  • Burgos’s last three fights were Cub Swanson (win – split decision), Makwan Amirkhani (win – knockout) and Josh Emmett (loss – unanimous decision).


Barboza: Need to Knows
  • Although Barboza is just 2-5 in his last seven, the list of fighters he lost to is impressive and a murderers’ row indeed. Edson overall has a 21-9 record with 12 of his wins being knockouts while five of his losses have also been stoppages (three knockouts, two submissions). While he doesn’t have the output that Burgos does, his aggression and violence are apparent as well. He averages 3.98 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.03.
  • The No. 1 weapon that Barboza possesses is his kicks. He arguably has the best kicks in UFC history and mixes them up extremely well from low, body to head, although perhaps most devastating are the leg kicks. Conditioning has been an issue for Edson in the past because everything he throws is ferocious.
  • Barboza’s last three fights were Paul Felder (loss – split decision), Dan Ige (loss – split decision) and Makwan Amirkhani (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Edson Barboza (+130) via decision

UFC 262: Oliveira vs Chandler Best Bets

FighterOdds
Lightweight Championship – Charles Oliveira-120
Lightweight – Tony Ferguson+130
Bantamweight – Matt Schnell-160
Women’s Flyweight – Viviane Araujo +110
Featherweight – Edson Barboza+130