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UFC 265 Odds & Predictions: Heavyweight Title On The Line

Ciryl Gane (right) is favored in the UFC 265 odds between Lewis (left) and Gane.

Another big UFC PPV event is quickly approaching as UFC 265 takes place on August 7 with a championship fight headlining the card. In the main event, the interim heavyweight belt will be up for grabs when Derrick Lewis collides with Ciryl Gane.

The Toyota Center is hosting UFC 265 in Houston, Texas, the hometown of Lewis, who is on the marquee. In the UFC 265 main event, Gane is the betting favorite to claim the interim heavyweight championship.

He carries a perfect 9-0 record into this bout and has looked impressive in his rise through the UFC heavyweight rankings. His methods of victory are split evenly with three knockouts, three submissions and three decisions.

While Gane has a balanced record, Lewis has “Knockout King” tattooed to his chest for a reason. Among his 25 pro wins, 20 have ended by way of knockout, including his last two, and that’s part of the reason why he’s such a fan favorite.

UFC 265 Odds: Lewis vs Gane

Online sportsbook Bovada has released UFC 265 odds and in the main event, Gane is a sizable -360 favorite and Lewis is the +270 underdog. This betting line means you would need to wager $360 to profit $100 with a Gane win while a $100 winning bet on Lewis would profit you $270.

We can examine the UFC 265 main event odds further with our sports betting calculator, which tells us that Gane’s line of -360 represents an implied win probability of 78.26 percent while Lewis’s implied win probability is 27.03 percent.

The largest UFC 265 betting favorite is in the main event between Gane and Lewis. Meanwhile, the fight with the tightest odds comes in the women's prelim fight between Melissa Gatto and Victoria Leonardo which is set as a pick 'em with both women holding -110 odds.

UFC 265 Betting Odds & Fight Card


UFC 265 Betting Lines & Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Heavyweight Championship – Derrick Lewis (+270) vs Ciryl Gane (-360)
  • Bantamweight – Jose Aldo (-115) vs Pedro Munhoz (-105)
  • Welterweight – Michael Chiesa (+100) vs Vicente Luque (-120)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Tecia Torres (-140) vs Angela Hill (+115)
  • Bantamweight – Yadong Song (-105) vs Casey Kenney (-115)
  • Prelims
  • Lightweight – Bobby Green (+235) vs Rafael Fiziev (-300)
  • Light Heavyweight – Alonzo Menifield (-250) vs Ed Herman (+200)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-130) vs Jessica Penne (+110)
  • Flyweight – Manel Kape (-210) vs Ode Osbourne (+170)
  • Bantamweight – Miles Jones (-210) vs Anderson Dos Santos (+170)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Victoria Leonardo (-110) vs Melissa Gatto (-110)
  • Bantamweight – Vince Morales (-105) vs Drako Rodriguez (-115)
  • Bantamweight – Johnny Munoz (-265) vs Jamey Simmons (+210)

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In addition to Odds Shark's MMA news, our How to Bet UFC guide is a great resource if you’re looking to bet on UFC 265, and our UFC odds page has all of the current and up-to-date betting lines.


UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: August 7, 6 p.m. ET
  • Location: Houston, Texas
  • Arena: Toyota Center
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Derrick Lewis+270
Ciryl Gane-360

This is the second attempt at UFC gold for Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis (+270) with his first attempt coming at UFC 230 in 2018, when he lost by submission. Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane (-360) made his UFC debut almost exactly two years ago (August 10, 2019) and his rise has been meteoric; he could be 25 minutes or less away from being a champion.


Lewis: Need to Knows
  • Lewis had been on a three-fight winning streak when he fought his first title fight, which led to back-to-back losses. His record is 25-7 with 20 knockout wins, while four of his defeats have come in the same manner.
  • The Black Beast doesn’t have a huge output, averaging just 2.59 significant strikes per minute. But he doesn’t require it as he has massive knockout power, needing to land just once to end the night.
  • He has had some difficulties stuffing takedowns, defending 54 percent of attempts, but he’s so strong he is able to simply stand up after being taken down. Although he’s a true heavyweight at 260 or more pounds, at times he will throw flying knees or head kicks.
  • For Derrick to get the win here, he will have to unload bombs the moment that Gane enters his range or go on the attack because he won’t win in a technical bout.
  • Lewis’s last three fights were Ilir Latifi (win – unanimous decision), Aleksei Oleinik (win – knockout) and Curtis Blaydes (win – knockout).


Gane: Need to Knows
  • What a rise for Gane, from making his UFC debut to then fighting for a belt in less than two years, scoring six wins over that span. He holds a 9-0 record overall, with three knockouts, three submissions and three decisions.
  • Bon Gamin’s perfect record extends to his Muay Thai background where he was 13-0 with nine knockouts. He does have knockout power but nothing compared to what Lewis possesses.
  • Moreover, he uses a high output with great accuracy to put his foes away. He averages 5.13 significant strikes per minute and absorbs just 2.60, while landing 54 percent of his attempts and making opponents miss 63 percent of theirs.
  • He has a long reach at 81 inches and his footwork and speed is eye-opening for the heavyweight division. He has outstruck all six UFC opponents and switches stances and tempo throughout the fight to keep his foes at bay.
  • Gane’s last three fights were Junior dos Santos (win – knockout), Jairzinho Rozenstruik (win – unanimous decision) and Alexander Volkov (win – unanimous decision).

For more on this fight, be sure to see my Lewis vs Gane odds analysis article.

Prediction: Ciryl Gane (-360) via knockout

Jose Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Jose Aldo-115
Pedro Munhoz-105

Following the longest losing streak of his career, Jose “Junior” Aldo (-115) had an impressive win over Marlon Vera in December and looks for a second win in a row. Similarly, Pedro “The Young Punisher” Munhoz (-105) broke out of a two-fight skid with a great performance over Jimmie Rivera in February.


Aldo: Need to Knows
  • The former featherweight champ has had a bit of a rough start in his new weight class, dropping two of his first three fights, but he is coming off a win. His record now sits at 29-7 and 18 of his wins have been stoppages (17 knockouts, one submission). He also has four knockout losses.
  • Aldo is the definition of a sprawl-and-brawl type of fighter, averaging just 0.57 takedowns per 15 minutes and stuffing 91 percent of attempts against – he keeps the fight standing.
  • On the feet, he has outstanding Muay Thai skills with powerful kicks, specifically to the legs, and sharp boxing at close range. He has good head movement and is quite aggressive, though his lack of output has hurt him on the scorecards. He has surpassed 100 significant strikes in a fight just once through 25 UFC and WEC bouts.
  • Aldo’s last three fights were Marlon Moraes (loss – split decision), Petr Yan (loss – knockout) and Marlon Vera (win – unanimous decision).


Munhoz: Need to Knows
  • Munhoz’s back-to-back losses in 2019-20 represented the first losing skid of his career. Overall, he is 19-5 with one no contest. He has 13 stoppage wins (five knockouts, eight submissions) and all of his defeats have come by decision.
  • Similar to Aldo, Munhoz has secured only one takedown over his last eight bouts while stuffing 80 percent of attempts against. He prefers to keep the fight standing, though he has a higher output than his opponent.
  • The Young Punisher averages 5.60 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.87. He has quick, powerful kicks and uses them early and often. He can be goaded into exchanging hands in the pocket where he’s most vulnerable but he has an iron chin.
  • Munhoz’s last three fights were Aljamain Sterling (loss – unanimous decision), Frankie Edgar (loss – split decision) and Jimmie Rivera (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Pedro Munhoz (-105) via decision

Michael Chiesa vs Vicente Luque Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Michael Chiesa+100
Vicente Luque-120

A winning streak will come to a close in this matchup between two rising welterweights. Vicente “The Silent Assassin” Luque (-120) has picked up three straight wins, all stoppages, putting him No. 6 in the division. One spot ahead of him, though, is Michael “Maverick” Chiesa (+100), who is riding a four-fight winning streak since moving up to welterweight from lightweight.


Chiesa: Need to Knows
  • Chiesa struggled with making weight at lightweight and that carried over to his performances a day later but he is on fire at welterweight. He carries an 18-4 record with 11 submission wins but also has three losses in the same manner.
  • Maverick is a strong welterweight and that is apparent when he grapples with his opponents, averaging 3.60 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has secured 19 takedowns over his four fights in that weight class.
  • He does have some issues on the feet, often lunging in with a straight punch or a hook while essentially just trying to close the distance. When he gets a takedown, he has strong top control and submission skills.
  • Chiesa’s last three fights were Diego Sanchez (win – unanimous decision), Rafael dos Anjos (win – unanimous decision) and Neil Magny (win – unanimous decision).


Luque: Need to Knows
  • After a tough start (7-5-1) to Luque’s career, he’s been a force since he made it to the UFC. His record sits at 20-7-1 and 18 of his wins have been finishes (11 knockouts, seven submissions).
  • The Silent Assassin is a well-rounded fighter and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. He primarily keeps the fight standing, with just 0.66 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he is still a threat on the floor.
  • He is a gritty fighter and never backs away from a war, averaging 5.74 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.78; his conditioning allows him to push the pace throughout the fight. He has sharp boxing and kicks and is willing to take a punch to land a punch.
  • Luque’s last three fights were Niko Price (win – knockout), Randy Brown (win – knockout) and Tyron Woodley (win – submission).

Prediction: Vicente Luque (-120) via knockout

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Tecia Torres vs Angela Hill Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Tecia Torres-140
Angela Hill+115

A rematch six years in the making will be the lone women’s fight on the main card. Tecia “The Tiny Tornado” Torres (-140) is favored to win the rematch after winning the first meeting in 2015. Meanwhile, Angela “Overkill” Hill (+115) looks to avenge that loss that came in the third pro fight of her career.


Torres: Need to Knows
  • Torres was stuck in a four-fight losing skid not long ago but emerged with back-to-back wins in 2020. Overall, the decision queen carries a 12-5 record with only two total stoppages – one knockout and one submission win. The rest of her fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards.
  • Four of her five pro losses have come against strawweight champions in Zhang Weili, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Jessica Andrade and Rose Namajunas. 
  • The Tiny Tornado prefers to keep the fight standing as she only averages 0.68 takedowns per 15 minutes. On the feet, she averages 4.30 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.37.
  • She is strong and tough, having never been stopped against very tough opponents. Torres has had some difficulties in the grappling department but can typically get back to her feet or tie up her foes. She’s an aggressive striker, constantly stalking forward throwing flurries of strikes.
  • Torres’s last three fights were Marina Rodriguez (loss – unanimous decision), Brianna Van Buren (win – unanimous decision) and Sam Hughes (win – knockout).


Hill: Need to Knows
  • A pair of controversial split decisions are all that separates Hill from a six-fight winning streak. She holds a 13-9 record with five knockout wins and two submission losses.
  • Overkill has good head and foot movement, though with her brawling approach she does take some damage. She averages 5.66 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.98. Like Torres, don’t expect many takedown attempts from Hill, who averages 0.45 takedowns per 15 minutes.
  • At times she will get in the pocket and close the distance but only throw one punch when a combination could do some damage. Additionally, it seems she struggles to find her range with many of her punches coming up short.
  • Hill’s last three fights were Claudia Gadelha (loss – split decision), Michelle Waterson (loss – split decision) and Ashley Yoder (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Tecia Torres (-140) via decision

Yadong Song vs Casey Kenney Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Yadong Song-105
Casey Kenney-115

Two fighters looking to get back on track after suffering defeats in their last appearances will open the main card. Yadong “Kung Fu Monkey” Song (-105) had his nine-fight unbeaten streak snapped with a decision loss in March. Meanwhile, Casey Kenney (-115) had won three in a row before colliding with Dominick Cruz on the same card in March.


Song: Need to Knows
  • Although Song took a loss in his last appearance, at just 23 years old, he has plenty of time to avenge the defeat. He holds a 16-5-1 record with one no contest. Among his victories, he has nine stoppages (six knockouts, three submissions), and he has only been stopped once – a knockout.
  • The Kung Fu Monkey landed three takedowns over his first three UFC bouts but has none in the four fights since, preferring to keep the fight on the feet.
  • He averages 4.35 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.64 and has outstruck six of his seven UFC foes. He’s very light on his feet, seemingly floating across the canvas before planting his feet with a powerful strike.
  • Song’s last three fights were Cody Stamann (majority draw), Marlon Vera (win – unanimous decision) and Kyler Phillips (loss – unanimous decision).


Kenney: Need to Knows
  • Kenney has had three lengthy unbeaten streaks through his career. He is 16-3-1 overall with three decision losses and just seven stoppage wins (two knockouts, five submissions).
  • He is an aggressive fighter, constantly backing his opponents up before loading up big strikes. That can lead to him telegraphing but when he lands, he does damage.
  • At times, he will simply head hunt trying to brawl and he usually gets picked apart with that approach, but when he mixes his attack up, he’s much more dangerous, especially with his kicks. Despite his big strikes, he lacks knockout power, stopping only two opponents. He’d be better served taking a little something off and increasing his accuracy.
  • Kenney’s last three fights were Alateng Heili (win – unanimous decision), Nathaniel Wood (win – unanimous decision) and Dominick Cruz (loss – split decision).

Prediction: Yadong Song (-105) via decision

UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane Best Bets

FighterOdds
Heavyweight – Ciryl Gane-360
Bantamweight – Pedro Munhoz-105
Welterweight – Vicente Luque-120
Women’s Strawweight – Tecia Torres-140
Bantamweight – Yadong Song-105