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UFC 268 Odds & Prediction: Stacked Card For MSG

Kamaru Usman (left) is favored in the UFC 268 odds for Usman vs Covington (right).

Back-to-back UFC numbered events are a treat to all fight fans. UFC 267 takes place in Abu Dhabi with two belts up for grabs and is followed by UFC 268 on November 6 at Madison Square Garden with yet another two championship fights headlining the card.

The UFC 268 main event is the highly anticipated rematch between Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington for the welterweight championship. The co-main is also a rematch but this time in the women’s strawweight division as Rose Namajunas defends her belt against Zhang Weili, the woman she took it from in April.

When it comes to UFC 268 odds for the main event, the current champ, Usman, is the betting favorite over Covington.

UFC 268: Usman vs Covington 2 Notes

Since they met in December 2019 for the belt, Usman has defended his strap three more times, including back-to-back knockouts heading into this rematch.

Conversely, we only saw Covington fight once since getting stopped by Usman in the fifth round of a tightly contested battle. However, that performance was a dominant one as he stopped former champion Tyron Woodley in the fifth.

UFC 268 Odds

Online sportsbook Bovada has listed all of the UFC 268 odds and when it comes to the headliner, Usman is the -310 favorite with Covington set at +240. This means that if you were to bet $310 on a winning Usman ticket, you would profit $100 while a $100 winning wager on Covington would net you $240.

Looking more closely at the UFC 268 odds with our sports betting calculator, we can see that the champ’s -310 betting line represents an implied win probability of 75.61 percent while the challenger’s +240 odds have an implied win probability of 29.41 percent.

If you’re looking for the biggest favorite in the UFC 268 odds, UFC newcomer Ian Garry gets that honor as the -400 chalk over Jordan Williams (+300). Meanwhile, if you want to test your hand in the fight with the closest odds, you will be looking at the co-main event with champion Rose Namajunas as the -105 underdog and Zhang Weili the -115 chalk. 

UFC 268 Betting Odds & Fight Card


UFC 268 Betting Lines And Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Welterweight Championship – Kamaru Usman (-310) vs Colby Covington (+240)
  • Women’s Strawweight Championship – Rose Namajunas (-105) vs Zhang Weili (-115)
  • Bantamweight – Frankie Edgar (+120) vs Marlon Vera (-145)
  • Featherweight – Shane Burgos (-200) vs Billy Quarantillo (+160)
  • Lightweight – Justin Gaethje (-210) vs Michael Chandler (+170)
  • Prelims
  • Middleweight – Alex Pereira (-250) vs Andreas Michailidis (+200)
  • Lightweight – Al Iaquinta (+150) vs Bobby Green (-185)
  • Middleweight – Phil Hawes (-310) vs Chris Curtis (+240)
  • Middleweight – Edmen Shahbazyan (+105) vs Nassourdine Imavov (-125)
  • Welterweight – Ian Garry (-400) vs Jordan Williams (+300)
  • Heavyweight – Gian Villante (-130) vs Chris Barnett (+110)
  • Light Heavyweight – Dustin Jacoby (-375) vs John Allan (+270)
  • Featherweight – Melsik Baghdasaryan (-325) vs Bruno Silva (+250)
  • Flyweight – CJ Vergara (+150) vs Ode Osbourne (-185)

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UFC 268 is going to be a juggernaut of an event and you’re not going to want to miss out on the betting action. See our How to Bet UFC guide to help you place a wager and our sportsbook review page to see where to bet on UFC 268. Additionally, our UFC odds page will have the latest up-to-date UFC 268 betting lines and Odds Shark as a whole has all your UFC fight news.


UFC 268: Usman vs Covington 2 Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: November 6, 6 p.m. ET
  • Location: New York City, New York
  • Arena: Madison Square Garden
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Kamaru Usman-310
Colby Covington+240

Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (-310) and Colby “Chaos” Covington (+240) were in an absolute brawl in their first fight and the outcome was up in the air until the final round. The judges’ scorecards had the winner of the fifth winning the fight, but the judges weren’t needed as Usman ended the fight with 50 seconds to go via knockout.


Usman: Need to Knows
  • Not only has Usman defended the belt four times but he is riding an 18-fight winning streak. The champ’s record stands at 19-1 with one submission loss and nine knockout wins.
  • As the Nigerian Nightmare climbed the ranks, he was known for his wrestling. He averages 3.27 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 100 percent takedown defense, but no takedowns were attempted on either side of the first Usman vs Covington fight.
  • We have seen an evolution in Usman’s game with his striking, leading to knockouts in three of his last four wins. He had just one knockout victory through his first 10 UFC fights.
  • He has a snappy, heavy jab that sets him up well for his big powerful right hand that follows. Usman can be caught over the top of that jab. He puts so much power into it that he’s vulnerable if he misses, as was the case when he was dropped by Gilbert Burns, though he recovered quickly.
  • Usman’s last three fights were Jorge Masvidal (win – unanimous decision), Gilbert Burns (win – knockout) and Jorge Masvidal (win – knockout).


Covington: Need to Knows
  • Covington’s loss to Usman in 2019 snapped a seven-fight winning streak, one shy of his longest win streak. His record is now 16-2 with four knockouts and four submissions. He has also been stopped once by knockout and once by submission.
  • Like Usman, Chaos is also recognized for his grappling, though at a higher output of 4.61 takedowns per 15 minutes, while the two land at nearly the same percentage. One difference: Covington has been taken down six times in his 13 UFC fights.
  • In his loss to the champ, Covington didn’t attempt a takedown for just the second time in his UFC career, the other instance coming in his decision win over Demian Maia. On the feet, he has relentless pressure always marching forward, and while he doesn’t have big power in his hands, he has exceptional volume.
  • Usman likely has the advantage with his boxing, but I would argue Covington’s kicks are better and he even hurt Usman with a kick to the liver in their first fight. In that bout, the champ did his best work when he had time and space to operate.
  • Covington’s last three fights were Robbie Lawler (win – unanimous decision), Kamaru Usman (loss – knockout) and Tyron Woodley (win – knockout).

Prediction: Colby Covington (+240) via decision

For more on this fight, see my Usman vs Covington 2 odds analysis piece.

Rose Namajunas vs Zhang Weili Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Rose Namajunas-105
Zhang Weili-115

It’s not very often that we see an immediate rematch for a title after a first-round finish in the previous fight but that’s what we get in this case. “Thug” Rose Namajunas (-105) needed less than 90 seconds to score a head kick knockout and reclaim her championship against Zhang “Magnum” Weili (-115), who defended the belt just once.


Namajunas: Need to Knows
  • Namajunas hopes she can defend the title more often this time around after her first reign had just one defense. She has a 10-4 record with seven stoppages, including five submissions. She has been finished twice, once by knockout and once by submission.
  • Thug is a very well-rounded fighter, relying much on her grappling skills on her rise to the top while showing off her striking skills more recently. She secured at least one takedown in her first six UFC fights but has only one in her last five.
  • The threat of the takedown has helped her striking, which has impressed many, especially when she beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the second time in a five-round affair that mostly played out on the feet.
  • Her fight IQ is off the charts to go along with her ability to fight anywhere the fight plays out. That’s why she’s a two-time champion, beating some of the biggest names in the division’s history.
  • Namajunas’s last three fights were Jessica Andrade (loss – knockout), Jessica Andrade (win – split decision) and Zhang Weili (win – knockout).


Weili: Need to Knows
  • That loss for Weili was the first since her pro debut back in 2013 and her first stoppage defeat. She is now 21-2 with 17 stoppage victories, 10 by knockout and seven by submission.
  • Magnum is also a well-rounded championship-caliber fighter. She mixes in 1.24 takedowns per 15 minutes, having not been taken down yet in the Octagon, with a high output of 6.36 significant strikes per minute.
  • She has big power in her strikes, almost loading up, but also does a great job throwing combinations rather than one shot at a time. Weili rarely backs down when she’s in the pocket and her opponent engages with her.
  • The big difference between these two warriors is that Weili sits down a little bit more on her shots whereas Namajunas is extremely light on her feet and lightning-fast. Magnum does her best work when she creates a dogfight.
  • Weili’s last three fights were Jessica Andrade (win – knockout), Joanna Jedrzejczyk (win – split decision) and Rose Namajunas (loss – knockout).

Prediction: Rose Namajunas (-105) via decision

For more on this fight, see our Namajunas vs Weili odds analysis article.

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Frankie Edgar vs Marlon Vera Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Frankie Edgar+120
Marlon Vera-145

Just before the title fights, we get to see veteran and former lightweight champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar (+120), who is looking to return to the win column for the first time in over a year. Meanwhile, Marlon “Chito” Vera (-145) tangled with the former featherweight champion last December and took a loss, but he bounced back with a win in June.


Edgar: Need to Knows
  • A fan favorite and staple in the UFC since his debut at UFC 67 in 2007, Edgar may be nearing the end of his illustrious career. The former champion enters the cage with a 24-9-1 record with 11 stoppage wins, seven by knockout, and has been stopped only three times – each time by knockout.
  • The Answer was known for his durability but that has come into question of late, taking all three of his knockout losses over his last six bouts – including a devastating flying knee loss to Cory Sandhagen in February.
  • Frankie is in perpetual motion, keeping his opponents off-balance with takedown attempts and a decently high volume of strikes. He has a great fight IQ and if his foes miss their shot, he counters immediately and accurately.  
  • Edgar’s last three fights were Korean Zombie (loss – knockout), Pedro Munhoz (win – split decision) and Cory Sandhagen (loss – knockout).


Vera: Need to Knows
  • Vera had a rare decision victory in his last outing, snapping his streak of six straight finishes in his wins, broken up with a couple of losses. He is 17-7-1 with each of his losses coming by judges’ decision, while 14 of his wins have been finishes, six by knockout and eight by submission.
  • Chito has a Muay Thai stance, a little flat-footed but leading to quite a bit of power. He has a snappy jab when his foes look to close the distance and uses heavy kicks at longer range. If his opponents try to run, he cuts the cage off well by switching stances.
  • At times, Vera will bite on his opponents’ feints, which can open him up to be hit hard after he covers up on the fake. That said, I’ve seen improvements in this area and he will now typically pump out a jab instead.
  • Vera’s last three fights were Sean O’Malley (win – knockout), Jose Aldo (loss – unanimous decision) and Davey Grant (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Marlon Vera (-145) via decision

Shane Burgos vs Billy Quarantillo Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Shane Burgos-200
Billy Quarantillo+160

For the first time in his career, “Hurricane” Shane Burgos (-200) walks into a fight on a losing skid, searching for his first win in just over two years. Looking to pile another loss on Burgos’s record is Billy Quarantillo (+160), who is aiming for back-to-back wins after a knockout victory in July.


Burgos: Need to Knows
  • As mentioned, Burgos has never lost consecutive bouts and his only other loss came in January 2018. Overall, he’s 13-3 with two knockout losses and 10 stoppage wins (five knockouts, five submissions).
  • It was a bit of a scary scene the last time we saw Hurricane compete, getting knocked out by Edson Barboza in May. The scary part was that he absorbed a 1-2, looked fine but then a delayed reaction saw him start stumbling backward and eventually go down. See the video below.
  • He is a wild man, averaging 7.29 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.11, and has been involved in some wars recently. His two knockout losses were a result of much punishment throughout the fight. He is a good boxer, always sitting in the pocket willing to go shot for shot.
  • Burgos’s last three fights were Makwan Amirkhani (win – knockout), Josh Emmett (loss – unanimous decision) and Edson Barboza (loss – knockout).


Quarantillo: Need to Knows
  • Quarantillo had his eight-fight winning streak snapped in late 2020 but rebounded with a knockout win in July. He holds a record of 16-3 with one knockout loss and 12 finishes, seven by knockout.
  • Like Burgos, Billy Q has an outstanding output of 7.08 significant strikes per minute. However, he mixes in 1.66 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed at least one takedown in four of his six UFC bouts.
  • Unlike Burgos, though, Quarantillo protects himself a little more effectively, absorbing only 4.33 significant strikes per minute. He has big kicks at distance and throws huge overhand bombs to help close the distance to create a grappling exchange. On the floor, he’s aggressive in searching for submissions or battering his foe with ground and pound.
  • Quarantillo’s last three fights were Kyle Nelson (win – knockout), Gavin Tucker (loss – unanimous decision) and Gabriel Benitez (win – knockout).

Prediction: Shane Burgos (-200) via knockout

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Justin Gaethje vs Michael Chandler Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Justin Gaethje-210
Michael Chandler+170

The last two title challengers in arguably the organization’s toughest division will collide with aspirations of returning to a lightweight championship bout. Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje (-210) has been inactive since his submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov last October. Meanwhile, “Iron” Michael Chandler (+170) lost his title shot against Charles Oliveira via knockout in May.


Gaethje: Need to Knows
  • The loss to Nurmagomedov snapped a four-fight winning streak for Gaethje. His record stands at 22-3 with 20 stoppage wins, 19 by knockout, while being finished all three times, twice by knockout.
  • The Highlight is violence personified when he enters the Octagon. This is evident in his performance bonuses: He has nine in just eight UFC bouts, including five “fight of the night” performances.
  • Don’t look for many grappling exchanges initiated by Gaethje, who hasn’t landed a takedown in his eight UFC fights. On the feet, though, it is an all-out war; he averages 7.46 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 7.99.
  • Perhaps his most devastating weapon is his calf kick, which he throws early and often and with bad intentions. He’s impressive with those kicks as he can throw them in tight windows. When pressured, he bites down on his mouthpiece and swings heavy hands.
  • We did learn in his loss to Nurmagomedov that Gaethje’s submission defense is certainly lacking. That said, closing the distance to bring the fight to the mat is extremely dangerous.
  • Gaethje’s last three fights were Donald Cerrone (win – knockout), Tony Ferguson (win – knockout) and Khabib Nurmagomedov (loss – submission).


Chandler: Need to Knows
  • Chandler burst into the UFC in a big way in January, knocking out Dan Hooker to earn an immediate title shot. The former Bellator lightweight champ holds a 22-6 record with four knockout losses and 17 stoppage victories, 10 by knockout.
  • Iron has great wrestling, averaging 2.03 takedowns per 15 minutes, and was a D-I All-American wrestler for Missouri.
  • Opponents must be aware of his grappling pedigree, which also allows him to set up and land his extremely powerful hands. He does a great job backing his foes against the cage but usually as a counter-strike, using his pressure to draw out an attack.
  • Chandler’s last three fights were Benson Henderson (win – knockout), Dan Hooker (win – knockout) and Charles Oliveira (loss – knockout).

Prediction: Justin Gaethje (-210) via knockout

UFC 268: Usman vs Covington 2 Best Bets

FighterOdds
Welterweight Championship – Colby Covington+240
Women’s Strawweight Championship – Rose Namajunas-105
Bantamweight – Marlon Vera-145
Featherweight – Shane Burgos-200
Lightweight – Justin Gaethje-210