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UFC 269 Odds & Predictions: Two Belts On The Line

Dustin Poirier (right) is favored in the Oliveira (left) vs Poirier fight in the UFC 269 odds.

For the third straight UFC numbered event, we have two championship bouts. This time the lightweight strap will be defended when Charles Oliveira takes on Dustin Poirier while in the co-main event, Amanda Nunes puts her women’s bantamweight title up for grabs against Julianna Pena.

UFC 269 takes place on December 11 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, and can be seen on PPV. For the lightweight championship main event, Oliveira vs Poirier odds have the challenger, Poirier, as the betting favorite.

UFC 269: Oliveira vs Poirier Notes

Charles Oliveira has been on an absolute tear over the last three and a half years, rattling off a nine-fight winning streak and climbing to the top of the mountain in arguably the UFC’s toughest division.

Meanwhile, Dustin Poirier, a staple atop the lightweight rankings for the past three or more years, is 7-1 in his last eight, winning the interim lightweight belt vs Max Holloway only to lose in the unification match against Khabib Nurmagomedov.

UFC 269 Odds

Online sportsbook Bovada has released the UFC 269 odds and when it comes to the lightweight title fight, Poirier is the -165 favorite and Oliveira the +135 underdog. This means to profit $100 on a winning Poirier bet, you would have to lay $165 while a $100 winning wager on the champ would net you $135.

We can examine the UFC 269 odds in a different manner using our sports betting calculator. We can see there that Poirier’s -165 odds translate to an implied win probability of 62.26 percent and Oliveira’s betting line represents an implied win probability of 42.55 percent.

If you’re looking for a UFC 269 parlay piece, perhaps the co-main event would be an option with champion Amanda Nunes the biggest favorite in UFC 269 betting odds at -850 over challenger Julianna Pena (+525).

Conversely, there are three UFC 269 fights with the tightest odds. One is the heavyweight prelim bout between Tai Tuivasa and Augusto Sakai, which is set as a pick’em with both men holding -110 odds. The two other fights with the same odds are Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio and Pedro Munhoz vs Dominick Cruz.

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UFC 269 Betting Odds & Fight Card


UFC 269 Betting Lines And Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Lightweight Championship – Charles Oliveira (+135) vs Dustin Poirier (-165)
  • Women’s Bantamweight Championship – Amanda Nunes (-850) vs Julianna Pena (+525)
  • Welterweight – Geoff Neal (-110) vs Santiago Ponzinibbio (-110)
  • Flyweight – Kai Kara-France (+120) vs Cody Garbrandt (-145)
  • Bantamweight – Raulian Paiva (+250) vs Sean O’Malley (-325)
  • Prelims
  • Featherweight – Josh Emmett (-170) vs Dan Ige (+140)
  • Bantamweight – Pedro Munhoz (-110) vs Dominick Cruz (-110)
  • Heavyweight – Augusto Sakai (-110) vs Tai Tuivasa (-110)
  • Middleweight – Jordan Wright (+260) vs Bruno Silva (-350)
  • Middleweight – Andre Muniz (-140) vs Eryk Anders (+115)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Erin Blanchfield (+120) vs Miranda Maverick (-145)
  • Flyweight – Alex Perez (-325) vs Matthew Schnell (+250)
  • Featherweight – Ryan Hall (-220) vs Darrick Minner (+175)
  • Bantamweight – Randy Costa (-200) vs Tony Kelley (+165)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Gillian Robertson (-400) vs Priscila Cachoeira (+300)

You have the odds and the card – now head on over to our How to Bet UFC guide to see how to wager on UFC 269. Our sportsbook review page is another handy tool to see where to bet on UFC 269. The UFC odds page will have all the latest up-to-date betting lines and if you need any UFC fight news, you can find it here at Odds Shark.


UFC 269: Oliveira vs Poirier Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: December 11, 6 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: T-Mobile Arena
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Charles Oliveira +135
Dustin Poirier-165

For the first time in over a year, Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier (-165) is fighting someone not named Conor McGregor as he gets his second chance to win the lightweight belt. Meanwhile, this is the first title defense for Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (+135) after he claimed the title in May.


Oliveira: Need to Knows
  • Oliveira had some difficulties from 2015 to 2017, going just 2-4, but he is a perfect 9-0 since then. His record now stands at 31-8 with one no contest. He has 27 wins by stoppage, including 19 submissions, while he’s been stopped seven times, including four knockouts.
  • Not only has Do Bronx won nine in a row but eight have been stoppages and the lone decision likely should have been a submission on Tony Ferguson, who was simply too stubborn to tap out.
  • The champ is extremely technical and well-rounded. He is a bully on the feet, averaging 3.26 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.01, and he mixes in 2.64 takedowns per 15 minutes. On the floor, he has the most submission victories in UFC history (14).
  • Oliveira was criticized for looking for a way out when the going got tough but he showed tremendous resiliency the night he won the belt. His head movement could be improved when he throws, but he’s willing to stay in the pocket to level change for a takedown.
  • Oliveira’s last three fights were Kevin Lee (win – submission), Tony Ferguson (win – unanimous decision) and Michael Chandler (win – knockout).


Poirier: Need to Knows
  • Poirier has been on an impressive run lately, winning eight of his last 10 with one no contest and the lone defeat coming to Khabib Nurmagomedov. He holds a 28-6 record with that no contest and 21 of his wins have been finishes, including 14 knockouts. Four of his losses are finishes, two by knockout and two by submission.
  • While The Diamond does have seven submissions on his record, he hasn’t scored one since 2012, a D’Arce choke vs Jonathan Brookins. He averages just 1.50 takedowns per 15 minutes, having not landed multiple takedowns since 2017.
  • On the feet, the southpaw has outstanding pace and output, averaging 5.62 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 4.19. Quite simply, Poirier likes to make it a dogfight, willing to go shot for shot to see who has the better chin and conditioning.
  • He only stuffs 61 percent of takedown attempts but has a great guillotine when his foes shoot in on him, nearly stopping Nurmagomedov with it. He throws good kicks and has big hooks in the pocket.
  • Poirier’s last three fights were Dan Hooker (win – unanimous decision), Conor McGregor (win – knockout) and Conor McGregor (win – knockout).

Prediction: Charles Oliveira (+135) via submission

For more on this fight, see our Oliveira vs Poirier odds analysis article.

Amanda Nunes vs Julianna Pena Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Amanda Nunes-850
Julianna Pena+525

Arguably the women’s GOAT, Amanda “Lioness” Nunes (-850) is back to defend her bantamweight title for the first time in two years after back-to-back featherweight defenses during that span. As for Julianna “The Venezuelan Vixen” Pena (+525), she looks to secure UFC gold by posting consecutive wins for the first time in five years.


Nunes: Need to Knows
  • You have to go back over seven years to find Nunes’s last defeat as she has won 12 in a row heading into this fight. Overall, she’s 21-4 with 17 stoppages, including 13 knockouts. Three of her losses have been finishes, two by knockout.
  • Lioness is tremendously well-rounded and has elite skills wherever the fight plays out. She has outstruck all but one of her 15 UFC opponents, averaging 4.50 significant strikes per minute and absorbing only 2.45.
  • It isn’t only on the feet where Nunes is a threat, though. She has shown off her grappling skills more recently, scoring 14 takedowns over her last three fights after having just 12 in her previous 14 fights.
  • Her fight IQ is off the charts, mixing up strikes from high to low and always reading her opponent’s movements.
  • Nunes’s last three fights were Germaine de Randamie (win – unanimous decision), Felicia Spencer (win – unanimous decision) and Megan Anderson (win – submission).


Pena: Need to Knows
  • Looking for back-to-back wins, Pena is 2-2 in her last four with losses to former champion Germaine de Randamie and current champion Valentina Shevchenko. She is 10-4 with seven stoppages, including four submissions, while three of her losses have also come by stoppage (two submissions, one knockout).
  • Coming out of the sik-jitsu camp in Spokane, Washington, you know the emphasis on her game is in the grappling department like her teammate, Michael Chiesa. The Venezuelan Vixen does average 2.49 takedowns per 15 minutes and has secured at least one in all eight of her UFC fights.
  • That said, she’s also been taken down in six of those bouts, including a combined six times in her last three fights. On the feet, she usually throws one strike at a time, typically to try to close the distance with big movements.
  • Pena’s last three fights were Nicco Montano (win – unanimous decision), Germaine de Randamie (loss – submission) and Sara McMann (win – submission).

Prediction: Amanda Nunes (-850) via submission

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Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Geoff Neal-110
Santiago Ponzinibbio-110

For the first time in his career, Geoff “Handz of Steel” Neal (-110) heads into a bout on a losing streak, having lost his last two outings. Meanwhile, Santiago “Argentine Dagger” Ponzinibbio (-110) finally returned to the win column in June for the first time in nearly three years.


Neal: Need to Knows
  • Prior to his most recent losses, Neal had been on a seven-fight winning streak, knocking on the door of being a true contender in the welterweight division. Now, he’s 13-4 with eight knockouts and two stoppage losses (one knockout, one submission).
  • Evident in his record and his moniker, it should come as no surprise that Neal likes to keep the fight standing to utilize his big power. In the grappling department, he averages 0.60 takedowns per 15 minutes and has been taken to the canvas just three times.
  • The southpaw averages 4.42 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.68. He does his best work when his foes walk in straight lines at him; he was baffled by the movement of Stephen Thompson in their five-round bout. Most of his strikes are straight and accurate.
  • Neal’s last three fights were Mike Perry (win – knockout), Stephen Thompson (loss – unanimous decision) and Neil Magny (loss – unanimous decision).


Ponzinibbio: Need to Knows
  • Like Neal, Ponzinibbio had been on a lengthy seven-fight winning streak as well before injuries and a loss to Jingliang Li in his return after a 27-month layoff. He holds a 28-4 record with 15 knockouts but three of his defeats have come in the same manner.
  • Don’t expect the Argentine Dagger to be looking for a fight to hit the canvas. He averages just 0.46 takedowns per 15 minutes and has secured takedowns in just two of 13 UFC bouts.
  • The orthodox fighter prefers a brawl, averaging 4.65 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 4.38. He has outstanding conditioning and resiliency, with the ability to absorb plenty of strikes and continue to move forward and make the fight gritty. Ponzinibbio is a volume fighter with lots of combinations and he mixes up his strikes very well.
  • Ponzinibbio’s last three fights were Neil Magny (win – knockout), Jingliang Li (loss – knockout) and Miguel Baeza (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Santiago Ponzinibbio (-110) via decision

Kai Kara-France vs Cody Garbrandt Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Kai Kara-France+120
Cody Garbrandt-145

Former bantamweight champion Cody “No Love” Garbrandt (-145) is ready to make his flyweight debut. He’ll look to make an immediate impact in the division when he takes on No. 6-ranked Kai “Don’t Blink” Kara-France (+120), who is coming off a knockout win in March.


Kara-France: Need to Knows
  • Kara-France had an eight-fight winning streak that bled into the start of his UFC career but he is 2-2 in his last four. He has a 22-9 record with one no contest. Ten of his wins have been knockouts while five of his losses have been stoppages, including three submissions.
  • From the famed City Kickboxing gym that is home to champions Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski, “Don’t Blink” wants to be the next to bring a title back to New Zealand.
  • To be expected from that gym, Kara-France is primarily a striker, with a high output of 5.02 significant strikes per minute and absorbing just 3.84. He is not afraid of getting into the pocket and letting his hands fly. He has great footwork to get into range, then fires big hooks when he gets in there.
  • Kara-France’s last three fights were Tyson Nam (win – unanimous decision), Brandon Royval (loss – submission) and Rogerio Bontorin (win – knockout).


Garbrandt: Need to Knows
  • As mentioned, Garbrandt was the former champ but has struggled since, dropping four of his last five bouts. He is now 12-4 with 10 knockout wins and three defeats by the same method.
  • Despite being a high-level grappler, No Love typically likes to keep the fight standing, averaging just 1.05 takedowns per 15 minutes. On the feet, he averages 3.17 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.14.
  • He is extremely fast with outstanding footwork and everything he throws has big power behind it. That said, his fight IQ is questioned at times. He is easily goaded into a firefight, which takes him out of his skill set of hit and don’t get hit.
  • Garbrandt’s last three fights were Pedro Munhoz (loss – knockout), Raphael Assuncao (win – knockout) and Rob Font (loss – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Cody Garbrandt (-145) via knockout

Raulian Paiva vs Sean O’Malley Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Raulian Paiva+250
Sean O’Malley-325

A winning streak will come to an end in the opening bout of the main card. “Sugar” Sean O’Malley (-325) has won his last two fights in dominant fashion, while opponent Raulian Paiva (+250) finds himself on a three-fight winning streak on the heels of an impressive victory over Kyler Phillips.


Paiva: Need to Knows
  • Paiva earned his UFC contract with a split-decision win in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series but dropped his first two bouts in the Octagon. He carries a 21-3 record with 14 wins coming by decision. His losses have been one knockout, one submission and one decision.
  • For the first time since his Contender Series appearance, Paiva used some wrestling in his last bout with two takedowns but was taken down four times. The orthodox fighter has been outstruck in four of his six fights in the Octagon.
  • He’s an aggressive counter-striker, standing his ground when his foes engage with him and landing heavy when he throws. When he’s hurt, he tends to blitz and throw strikes from the hip, which leaves his head wide open. That said, he has a great chin.
  • Paiva’s last three fights were Mark De La Rosa (win – knockout), Zhalgas Zhumagulov (win – unanimous decision) and Kyler Phillips (win – majority decision).


O’Malley: Need to Knows
  • The O’Malley hype train looked like it might be derailed with his TKO loss to Marlon Vera following a leg injury, but two subsequent wins suggest otherwise. He holds a 14-1 record with 10 knockout wins and the one knockout loss.
  • We have seen Sugar go for takedowns only once in his eight-fight UFC career, securing three against Terrion Ware in 2017. Since then, it has been standup only, where he averages an astonishing 8.25 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 3.59.
  • In his last appearance vs Kris Moutinho, O’Malley landed an eye-popping 230 significant strikes, the fourth-most in UFC history. He is long with a 72-inch reach and has ridiculous speed, power and accuracy. Sugar is very relaxed in the fight and his strikes don’t match his emotion as they come with ferocity.
  • O’Malley’s last three fights were Marlon Vera (loss – knockout), Thomas Almeida (win – knockout) and Kris Moutinho (win – knockout).

Prediction: Sean O’Malley (-325) via knockout

UFC 269: Oliveira vs Poirier Best Bets

FighterOdds
Lightweight Championship – Charles Oliveira+135
Women’s Bantamweight Championship – Amanda Nunes-850
Welterweight – Santiago Ponzinibbio-110
Flyweight – Cody Garbrandt-145
Bantamweight – Sean O’Malley-325