Jessica Andrade vs Weili Zhang Odds Analysis

The UFC heads back to China for the first time since November of last year and the women’s strawweight title will be up for grabs in the main event at UFC Fight Night 157. Jessica “Bate Estaca” Andrade makes her first title defense since winning the title against Rose Namajunas in May, while China native Weili “Magnum” Zhang looks to run her winning streak to 20. The champion, Andrade, is a -160 favorite in this bout with Zhang coming back at +130.

Odds Analysis

This marks the fourth straight fight in which Andrade has been a favorite following back-to-back bouts of being an underdog to Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha. Overall, Bate Estaca has been favored in 11 of her 15 UFC fights and has an 11-4 record over that span. She has essentially cleared out the division except for Joanna and a rematch could be on the horizon.

But don’t count out Zhang, who has been on an absolute tear in her professional career. Magnum dropped her pro debut by unanimous decision but has rattled off 19 straight wins since then, nine by knockout, seven by submission and three going to the judges’ scorecards. In the UFC, she’s a perfect 3-0 and most recently put on a dominant performance against Tecia Torres. This would mark the first time that she has been a dog in the Octagon.

How Will This Fight Play Out?

Andrade should have the power advantage in this bout as she typically stalks forward loading up on power strikes and looking to put her opponent away. When she knocked out Karolina Kowalkiewicz in the first round at UFC 228 to become the No. 1 contender, she proved the kind of one-punch power she truly has.

All that being said, Zhang is extremely fast and intelligent, throwing feints and spinning attacks to try to get a read on her foe. Additionally, her defense is remarkable, as she has absorbed a total of just 79 total strikes over three UFC fights, two of which went the distance.

This fight represents a big step up in competition for Zhang and although she has never been taken down in the UFC, Andrade’s takedowns are so powerful that I’m not sure if any strawweight can defend it. Of course, it was a slam that knocked out Namajunas to win Andrade the belt and a similar outcome could occur in this bout. Speed vs power and I’m leaning power between these two competitors.