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Yan vs Sterling 2: Odds Analysis & Pick

Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling Betting Odds

UFC 259 was a fantastic event from the first fight of the night all the way through the three championship bouts at the top of the bill. However, the bantamweight title fight didn’t come without controversy as Aljamain Sterling claimed the belt from Petr Yan due to an illegal-knee disqualification. 

This marked the first time in UFC history that a championship belt has changed hands due to a disqualification. Understandably, the UFC is going to run this title fight back, though the date hasn’t yet been announced.

Online sportsbook BetOnline has released Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling rematch odds and although the first bout was close to a pick’em, Yan is a sizable -250 favorite for the second fight with Sterling coming back as a +210 underdog.

The Yan vs Sterling odds mean that you would have to wager $250 to profit $100 on a Yan victory, while a $100 bet on a Sterling win would profit you $210. Our sports betting calculator tells us that Yan’s -250 betting odds represent an implied win probability of 71.43 percent while Sterling’s implied win probability is 32.26 percent.

Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Petr Yan-250
Aljamain Sterling+210

Odds as of March 10 at BetOnline

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Yan vs Sterling Odds Analysis

Well, this is quite a dramatic shift from the first fight in which Yan was a -125 favorite on the day of the fight and Sterling was a slight -105 underdog. If you shopped around, you could find this as a pick’em with both men holding -115 odds. 

Are the Yan vs Sterling Rematch Odds an Overreaction?

One of the judges had Sterling winning the fight heading into the fourth round at two rounds to one, while the other two judges had Yan ahead 2-1. I agree with the two judges in favor of Yan and in my eyes the momentum was swinging heavily in that direction.

If that illegal knee wasn’t thrown, it’s possible that Sterling was going to be stopped in the fifth round. Although the odds have shifted significantly, I believe that this line will continue to climb with the former champion, Yan, closing over -300.

Yan vs Sterling 2 Prediction

Much of the talk heading into the first bout was about Sterling’s exceptional grappling and submission skills vs Yan’s outstanding striking ability. When I looked at this fight, I thought that Aljo would need to get Petr out of there early if he wanted to win and statistically that’s how it was playing out.

Sterling is a Fast Starter

I’m not sure if Funk Master uses his first round to get in the head of his opponent or if he knows that he doesn’t have the conditioning to win a five-round fight, but his first round is always his most dangerous.

Against Yan, he threw 74 significant strikes, landing just 27 of them. He did land one takedown but he really had to work for it and Yan was able to quickly get back to his feet. It was pretty much all over after that.

Yan was Dominant Everywhere

As mentioned, Sterling did get one takedown in 17 attempts over the fight for a 5.9 percent takedown success rate. Meanwhile, No Mercy was a perfect 7-for-7 in his takedown attempts, he landed over 60 percent of his significant strikes and he had a knockdown.

How Will the Rematch Play Out? 

Once Yan figured out Sterling’s timing and saw that he was slowing down in the latter stages of the second round, he went on the all-out attack. The former champ was sitting down on his punches looking to put the new champ away. Sterling was wilting quickly and had absolutely no answer for the onslaught that was coming his way. 

I don’t blame Sterling for the ending sequence, whether or not he played up the severity of the illegal knee. He wasn’t going to win that fight, but now he would have got an extra $100,000 win bonus and will get PPV points in his rematch as the standing champion. 

That said, I think the rematch is not going to go well for the champion and it’s going to be an all-out war as Yan seeks to get his title back.

Prediction: Petr Yan (-250) via knockout