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Yan vs Sterling: Odds Analysis & Pick

Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling Betting Odds

Fresh off winning the bantamweight title on Fight Island at UFC 251, Petr Yan has his first title defense scheduled for UFC 259 against Aljamain Sterling. Originally, the two were supposed to meet at UFC 256 in December but Yan was pulled from the card and the fight now takes place three months later.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released Yan vs Sterling odds and lists the champion, Yan, as a narrow -120 favorite with the challenger, Sterling, coming in as the -110 underdog. This means you would have to wager $120 to profit $100 with a Yan victory, while a $100 wager on Sterling would profit you $90.91.

Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling Betting Odds

Petr Yan-120
Aljamain Sterling-110

Odds as of March 5 at Bovada

According to our sports betting calculator, Petr Yan’s odds of -120 have an implied win probability of 54.55 percent, while Aljamain Sterling’s odds of -110 have an implied win probability of 52.38 percent.

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Yan vs Sterling Odds Analysis

For the champion, “No Mercy,” the -120 betting line would mark his shortest inside the Octagon, with the next-closest line being -260 in his last bout vs Jose Aldo to secure the UFC gold. Yan holds a 15-1 record with his lone defeat coming via split decision in 2016. In the UFC, he’s a perfect 7-0 with four knockouts and an average closing line of -525.

Meanwhile, the champion, “Funk Master,” has entered the Octagon as an underdog four times, going 2-2, though the -110 line would his shortest odds as a dog. His last defeat came nearly three years ago, on December 9, 2017, when he was knocked out by former champion Marlon Moraes. Since then, Sterling has rattled off five straight wins to earn his title shot.

Yan vs Sterling Prediction

Yan is an outstanding striker with a Master of Sport in Boxing and MMA and has outstruck six of his seven opponents in the UFC. He averages 6.32 significant strikes per minute, landing at 50 percent, while absorbing 3.25 and making his opponents miss at a rate of 63 percent.

Additionally, he has landed at least one takedown in each of his last five fights while stuffing 88 percent of takedown attempts. He’s truly a well-rounded mixed martial artist.

A similar story can be written about the challenger. Though Sterling has two more losses than the champion, two of his three defeats were narrow split decisions. He averages 4.82 significant strikes per minute, landing at 50 percent, while absorbing just 1.94 and making his opponents miss 66 percent.

He landed at least one takedown in nine of his first 11 UFC fights but has none in his last three. His 71-inch reach is very tricky for opponents to overcome.

What a championship fight this one is. Yan has such good boxing fundamentals, with fantastic head movement, and keeps his guard high while throwing crisp punches. He does have a tendency, though, of not checking kicks but rather looking to counter off them.

Sterling is a lot more aggressive, backing his opponents down with very high output and a variety of different strikes to keep them guessing. One issue with this style is that he tends to really open up to land his strikes, which leaves him vulnerable to a counter if he gets lazy with his footwork.

Prediction: Petr Yan (-120) via decision