LAS VEGAS -- NOT gonna Super Size my Super Bowl pick.
Lemme explain, with help from THE GREAT Joni Mitchell. In the song 'Both Sides Now,' Joni tells us, "I've looked at life from both sides now, From win and lose and still somehow, It's life's illusions I recall, I really don't know life at all."
Just change out the word life and replace it with Super Bowl, and maybe you can see my problem. I've looked over both teams from every angle available, every stat, every metric, every analytic. And being honest, NOT really thrilled with either side.
But Ecks, you GOTTA make a pick. Well, yea, but it AIN'T gonna be big bucks on the winner. Saving that for a visit to Prop City down below. So, back to my dilemma. One of the most important stats we look at, always, is turnover margin. And the 49ers BLOW the Chiefs away in that category. The Niners are a PLUS 10 while Kaycee is a MINUS 11.
That's YUGE. Okay, but then we look at #15 and we can tell you that Mahomes is 10-1-1 as an underdog and 14-3 in all his playoff games. And don't forget Andy Reid's 27-5 record after a bye week.
Now you see my problem. After hitting five of six in the playoffs (83%), the plan is to tickle the Chiefs at +2.5, which we found at the Westgate Sportsbook here in Vegas, and maybe buy the hook to +3 points.
PROPALICIOUS!!!
Open the wallet baby because we're ready to gobble up some big bucks.
First look is at a Patrick Mahomes prop and we're gonna pass on the total passing yards, total rushing yards and total TDs. The wager will be on the Over/Under for total rushing attempts.
Looked over the last few playoff games, and after only two attempts against the Dolphins, Mahomes had six attempts against the Ravens and six against the Bills. Of course, we did some more research for you, and went back all the way to the 2018 playoffs.
So, in two playoff games at the end of the 2018 season, Mahomes had five rushing attempts. In 2019, in three games, he had 24 attempts. In 2020, in three games, he ran 13 times. In 2021, in three games, he had 12 rushes. In 2022, in three games, he scampered 12 times. That's 81 attempts in 17 games which is an average of 4.76 per. The O/U total is set at 4.5 rushing attempts, and we're gonna go OVER for the money.
Next up is 49ers WR Jauan Jennings and his Over/Under total of 1.5 receptions.
Jennings is not the first option for QB Brock Purdy. He's not the second option. He's not the third option or even the fourth. Maybe the fifth. Kaycee is gonna have its hands full with Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. That should open up some routes for Double J.
Last week, Jennings had two targets and one catch against the Lions. The week before, he had six targets and five grabs against the Packers. Jauan had 41 targets and 25 receptions in 15 games this season and should be able to grab at least two from Purdy. Gimme OVER 1.5 receptions for the money.
Gonna look at another receiving prop, this time, it's all about George Kittle. The wild man from the 49ers, via Norman, Oklahoma and the University of Iowa, has done many things in his career, including a big clothesline hit on The Miz at WrestleMania 39.
But it's not Kittle's hits that we're looking at, but his longest reception prop. The Over/Under for his longest is listed at 20.5 yards. Of course, we did the research for you, and the results are very interesting.
In the Championship game against the Lions, Kittle had a 28 yard reception. In the Divisional Playoff against the Packers, his long was 32 yards. We went back a little further and found some EYE POPPING numbers. In his last game of the season (he didn't play in the finale against the Rams), Kittle's long was just 18 yards. But before that, he went long for 58 against the Ravens, 35 against the Cards, 44 against the Seahawks and 32 against the Eagles.
So, obviously, this guy knows how to RAC up the yards. That's Run After the Catch, and Kittle does it as well as any tight end in the league. Gimme OVER 20.5 yards for the money.
And to complete my six pack of props, gimme CMC, Christian McCaffrey for an anytime TD. Gimme Over half an INT for Brock Purdy. And for a long shot, gimme a few bucks on a big fat +$650 prop for the NO on whether or not the 49ers record a sack.
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Benjamin Eckstein is a nationally syndicated sportswriter/oddsmaker. His column, America's Line, with the Ecks & Bacon appetizer, has run in the New York Daily News and over 100 other papers since 1988. You can follow him online at www.americasline.com. He is beloved by most, when he picks winners, and detested by others, when he picks the occasional loser. If you wanna piece of Eck, hit his Email...ben@americasline.com.
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