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NFL Touchdown Scorer Bets: Super Bowl 55 Picks

Weekly NFL touchdown scorer bets are here for Super Bowl 55.

The most important plays in any football game, especially Super Bowl 55, are the ones that result in a touchdown. For a player, finding the end zone can be the difference between winning and losing in the NFL and this type of betting prop is the latest craze for sports bettors trying to find an edge in NFL betting.

If you’ve followed me on Twitter, you know I’ve been sharing my weekly NFL touchdown scorer picks for a few seasons. Now, I’ve decided I want to post them on Odds Shark so the average bettor can see why I’ve made a particular pick, what the thought process is and why NFL TD scorer odds are what they are.

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NFL Touchdown Scorer Bets: Super Bowl 55

If you’ve been following my picks this season, I’ve given my best touchdown scorer bets each week, and Super Bowl 55 is no different. With only one game this weekend, I’m providing my best anytime touchdown scorer bet for each team, a first Chiefs touchdown scorer and a multi-touchdown scorer rather than simply the best bet for the game.

If you prefer to simply bet on sides and totals for NFL games, I also have my six favorite picks and props in my weekly NFL best bets, The Pick Six.

All NFL touchdown scorer odds below are courtesy of the latest betting lines as of Thursday morning:

Kansas City Chiefs: Mecole Hardman Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+225)

When betting on Chiefs touchdown scorers, finding value is like trying to find a gluten-free option at the bakery. It’s there, you just need to look hard. That’s why I like Mecole Hardman to score a touchdown in Super Bowl 55 over players like Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill, who are typically listed at -150 or lower. It’s not that they won’t score, it’s just that football is such a tough game – one hit or tackle can put them on the sideline and your bet is done for the day. The risk is too great to ever bet on players with minus odds, even in the Super Bowl.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has shown that he tries to involve all of his skill players in the offense and doesn’t give up on them. This was obvious in the AFC championship game vs the Bills when Hardman had an awful fumble on a punt return but Reid went right back to him and he scored on the next Chiefs drive. This coaching variable can’t be overlooked. I’ve been burned many times banking on a player who makes a mistake and doesn’t see the field again for the rest of the game.

As for raw data, over the last two seasons, Hardman is third on the Chiefs in total touchdowns (11) and the best part is it isn’t just receiving. He’s scored rushing the ball and returning kicks, which makes him that much more dangerous than the likes of Sammy Watkins or Demarcus Robinson. The only minor weakness of the Bucs defense is defending the pass and I can envision Hardman beating the cornerback over the top and Patrick Mahomes dropping it right into his hands for an easy touchdown.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Cameron Brate Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+275)

It kills me to not bet on tight end Rob Gronkowski in this spot. I’ve bet on him in the previous three playoff games and was disappointed each time as I saw the Bucs use him mainly as a blocker instead of on seam routes up the middle. I know the all-time playoff touchdown record is on the line but people seem to forget that the Chiefs defensive line is no joke. Gronk is going to be used again as a primary blocker to hold off the likes of Frank Clark and Alex Okafor. That’s one of the main reasons why I’m on Cameron Brate to score a touchdown for the Buccaneers instead.

Brate has always been a great pass-catching tight end but has never gotten the shine after the Bucs drafted OJ Howard and then eventually signed Gronk. Yes, Brate only has one touchdown in the playoffs but if you watched those games, you saw him running routes and getting targets all game from Brady. His snap count has steadily increased in each playoff game and it should be noted that through those three playoff games, he and Gronk each had four red-zone targets.

I’ll understand why people will bet on Gronkowski to score at +225 instead, but I’m going to gamble on Brate at +275 to get the better value.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans to score 2+ Touchdowns (+700)

Multi-touchdown scorer props are a great way to find inflated value on studs or incredible long shots. For Super Bowl 55, the likes of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill again are so juiced that it’s almost not worth betting on them, each at +333, to score twice in a game. The odds are against you when they’re that low, despite their immense talents.

But if you look further down the list and see some of the other betting options, a stud wide receiver like Mike Evans immediately stands out at +700. Evans has easily been Tom Brady’s go-to pass catcher on the Bucs since Day 1. The wideout leads the team in overall targets, overall touchdowns, red-zone targets and red-zone touchdowns. Only four other receivers in all of football share that same distinction: the Bills’ Stefon Diggs, the Packers’ Davante Adams, the Falcons’ Calvin Ridley and the Chargers’ Keenan Allen.

Evans was fourth in the NFL in receiving touchdowns in the red zone and the three players ahead of him (Kelce, Adams, Diggs) are typically listed at +450 or lower to catch two touchdowns in a game. Evans also had four games this season in which he caught two or more touchdowns, including the Week 12 game vs the Chiefs when he snared two in the fourth quarter. With 21 targets and two touchdowns in three playoff games, he’s the only player in Super Bowl 55 who should be considered for a multi-touchdown prop.

Kansas City Chiefs: Travis Kelce To Score First Chiefs Touchdown (+350)

I generally don’t ever bet on first touchdown scorers for NFL games. There are so many variables that can ruin your bet that it can really be disheartening to do some deep-dive handicapping on this prop and then have it ruined because of a pick-six or because your player’s team doesn’t even get to see the field before a score happens. That’s why I’m taking a different approach and considering a team’s first touchdown scorer with Travis Kelce for the Chiefs.

Out of all the great players expected to touch the field for Super Bowl 55, Kelce may be the biggest mismatch for the opposing defense. He’s the one player I don’t have concern about getting open on routes against the likes of Lavonte David or Devin White, and his rapport with Patrick Mahomes has been uncanny.

In the Week 12 game vs the Bucs, Kelce had eight catches on eight targets for 82 yards and two red-zone targets. Tyreek Hill obviously stole the show in that one with three touchdowns but I think the Bucs will be doing everything in their power to ensure Hill doesn’t break one open.

Kelce is the best value/opportunity on the board to score the first touchdown for the Chiefs in Super Bowl 55. As mentioned off the top, I like to reduce my risk for these types of bets – in 17 games he played this year (including playoffs), Kelce caught the first Chiefs touchdown in five of those games.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds For Super Bowl 55
Travis Kelce (KC)-165
Tyreek Hill (KC)-165
Mike Evans (TB)+110
Leonard Fournette (TB)+120
Chris Godwin (TB)+125
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)+150
Darrel Williams (KC)+175
Mecole Hardman (KC)+225
Ronald Jones (TB)+225
Rob Gronkowski (TB)+225
Antonio Brown (TB)+225
Patrick Mahomes (KC)+250
Sammy Watkins (KC)+250
Cameron Brate (TB)+275
Le’Veon Bell (KC)+300
Scotty Miller (TB)+300
Tom Brady (TB)+350

Odds as of February 4 at Bovada

Who Will Score the First Touchdown in Super Bowl 55?
Travis Kelce (KC)+500
Tyreek Hill (KC)+500
Leonard Fournette (TB)+900
Mike Evans (TB)+900
Chris Godwin (TB)+1000
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)+1100
Rob Gronkowski (TB)+1100
Patrick Mahomes (KC)+1100
Darrel Williams (KC)+1300
Antonio Brown (TB)+1400
Ronald Jones (TB)+1400
Mecole Hardman (KC)+1500

Odds as of February 4 at Bovada

Who Will Score the First Touchdown for the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 55?
Travis Kelce+350
Tyreek Hill+350
Clyde Edwards-Helaire+600
Darrel Williams+600
Any Other Player+700
Patrick Mahomes+900
Mecole Hardman+900
Sammy Watkins+1100
Le’Veon Bell+1400
Defense or Special Teams+1600
Demarcus Robinson+2000
No Kansas City Touchdown Scorer+2800

Odds as of February 4 at Bovada

Who Will Score the First Touchdown for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55?
Leonard Fournette+450
Mike Evans+450
Chris Godwin+450
Ronald Jones+650
Antonio Brown+650
Rob Gronkowski+650
Any Other Player+750
Scotty Miller+1100
Cameron Brate+1200
Tom Brady+1600
Defense or Special Teams+1600
No Tampa Bay Touchdown Scorer+2000

Odds as of February 4 at Bovada

Who Will Score Two or more Touchdowns in Super Bowl 55?
Travis Kelce (KC)+350
Tyreek Hill (KC)+350
Leonard Fournette (TB)+700
Mike Evans (TB)+700
Chris Godwin (TB)+700
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)+800
Darrel Williams (KC)+900
Ronald Jones (TB)+1400
Rob Gronkowski (TB)+1400
Antonio Brown (TB)+1500
Patrick Mahomes (KC)+1800
Mecole Hardman (KC)+2200
Tom Brady (TB)+5000

Odds as of February 4 at Bovada

How To Understand NFL Touchdown Scorer Odds

The time has come that you finally want to bet on some NFL props instead of sides and totals and you’ve decided on the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer props. This is a fun choice because props are like games within the game that may or may not have a direct impact on the outcome of the game.

When you go to your online sportsbook to look at NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds for a game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, for instance, the odds available to bet on might be presented like this:

Lamar Jackson – Ravens -110

JuJu Smith-Schuster – Steelers +150

Mark Andrews – Ravens +250

Similar to a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the favorite to score a touchdown is the player with the lowest odds, which in this case is Lamar Jackson. Based on Jackson’s implied odds from sportsbooks, Jackson has a 52.4 percent chance to score a touchdown.

Let’s say you think Lamar Jackson will score a touchdown in this game. In order to make $100 in profit, you would need to bet $110. If you make that bet and Jackson scores, your $110 original bet is returned and you win $100 in profit.

On the flip side, part of the allure of NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer wagers is the big paydays you could receive for being right and picking a player who doesn’t score as often as Jackson does. In this case, you decide to bet on Mark Andrews with the Ravens at +250. If you bet $100 on Andrews and he finds the end zone in the game, you would get $350 returned to you. Your original $100 bet is refunded and the sportsbook would give you $250 in profit for your winning bet.

If you’re unsure about potential payouts for certain betting odds, try out Odds Shark’s odds calculator to do the math for you and show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.