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NFL Touchdown Scorer Best Bets: Divisional Round

Weekly NFL TD Scorer Best Bets - Divisional Round 2021

The most important plays in any football game are the ones that result in a touchdown. For a player, finding the end zone can be the difference between winning and losing in the NFL and this type of betting prop is the latest craze for sports bettors trying to find an edge in NFL betting.

If you’ve followed me on Twitter, you know I’ve been sharing my weekly NFL touchdown scorer picks for a few seasons. Now, I’ve decided I want to post them on Odds Shark so the average bettor can see why I’ve made a particular pick, what the thought process is and why NFL TD scorer odds are what they are.

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NFL Touchdown Scorer Picks: Divisional Round

Each week from now until Super Bowl 55, I’ll be giving out my top NFL touchdown scorer pick for each playoff game of the postseason. This is only my best bet for each game and my full slate of picks/props for each contest can still be found on my Twitter page. If you prefer to simply bet on sides and totals for NFL games, I also have my six favorite picks in my weekly NFL best bets, The Pick Six.

All NFL touchdown scorer odds below are courtesy of the latest betting lines as of this writing:


Rams-Packers: Cooper Kupp (+215)

With Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander expected to be draped all over WR Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp is offering terrific value to score a touchdown vs Green Bay. The slot receiver is tied with Woods in red-zone targets and overall targets for the Rams despite playing in one fewer game. However, Kupp continues to get less love from oddsmakers and I think that’s a mistake in this matchup.

One of the few ways to take down the Packers is with a steady diet of running the ball and converting third downs in the slot. Enter Cooper Kupp. The WR carved up the Seahawks secondary in the wild-card round and with another week of healing for Jared Goff’s thumb, I expect the Rams to try to air it out a bit, with Kupp being the biggest beneficiary.


Ravens-Bills: Lamar Jackson (+120)

Lamar Jackson at plus money? AUTO-BET. I have routinely bet on Jackson to score this season when he has odds of +110 or better. In those six instances when I’ve bet on him, he’s hit four times, including last week’s sensational run vs the Colts in their wild-card game.

As a rule of thumb when betting on TD scorers, I will only bet on players who have plus-money odds as Jackson is typically -120 or lower. Another rule of thumb I live by is to always bet on a team’s starting running back to score a TD if they’re plus money. However, in this circumstance, there’s no question that Lamar is the best runner on the team. Especially since he touches the ball on every offensive snap.

Another player to consider for this one is TE Dawson Knox of the Bills at +240. He’s really turned it on of late and has become a go-to target for Josh Allen in the red zone. With cornerbacks like Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters expected to match up with Stefon Diggs and John Brown, that leaves an opportunity for Knox to exploit coverage by a linebacker he can juke or outrun.


Browns-Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes (+320)

In six postseason games, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has rushed for three touchdowns. While the Browns have actually been fairly tough in preventing quarterbacks from running for touchdowns (three on the season), just tell that to the 49ers last year in the Super Bowl or the Titans in the AFC championship game.

The Niners had allowed only two quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray) to rush for a TD last season going into the big game while the Titans had allowed only one (AJ McCarron) going into the AFC title game. Stats and matchups meant nothing to Mahomes, who rushed for majors against both teams, cashing in for bettors in what seemed like impossible circumstances.

Now, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire may be back for this game but that’s not enough to deter the Mahomes pick. The rookie back could be limited in his return to action while Le’Veon Bell has looked like a shell of his former self. The Chiefs are going to need Mahomes to make plays with his legs and at +320, these are great odds for a QB who is routinely listed at +150 or lower.

It’s also worth noting that if you like the “revenge” factor or silly angles of players sticking it to their former teams, you can’t go wrong with Browns RB Kareem Hunt at +130.


Buccaneers-Saints: Rob Gronkowski (+240)

Part nostalgia but also chasing the odds, Rob Gronkowski to score a TD at +240 was too hard to pass up. The touchdown machine was fairly invisible in the box score in the wild-card win over Washington but that’s because he was being used primarily as a blocker to keep that defensive line off Brady’s back. The Saints D-Line is fairly formidable too but I think the Bucs will change up their game plan this week to get Gronk open in the end zone.

When looking at Tampa’s receivers, I don’t think they’ll be able to get separation against the likes of Marcus Lattimore or Janoris Jenkins, which makes Mike Evans and Chris Godwin stay-aways for me in this one.

Another reason I love Gronkowski this week is his playoff pedigree. In 15 career playoff games, he has 12 touchdowns. That’s an insane TD rate per game and he scored more than once in only three of those games. Sure, all those scores were with the Patriots but Tom Brady was in New England too. Brady has targeted Gronk 21 times in the red zone this season (tied for the team lead with Evans) and he has scored five touchdowns from those targets.


How To Understand NFL Touchdown Scorer Odds

The time has come that you finally want to bet on some NFL props instead of sides and totals and you’ve decided on the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer props. This is a fun choice because props are like games within the game that may or may not have a direct impact on the outcome of the game.

When you go to your online sportsbook to look at NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds for a game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, for instance, the odds available to bet on might be presented like this:

Lamar Jackson – Ravens -110

JuJu Smith-Schuster – Steelers +150

Mark Andrews – Ravens +250

Similar to a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the favorite to score a touchdown is the player with the lowest odds, which in this case is Lamar Jackson. Based on Jackson’s implied odds from sportsbooks, Jackson has a 52.4 percent chance to score a touchdown.

Let’s say you think Lamar Jackson will score a touchdown in this game. In order to make $100 in profit, you would need to bet $110. If you make that bet and Jackson scores, your $110 original bet is returned and you win $100 in profit.

On the flip side, part of the allure of NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer wagers is the big paydays you could receive for being right and picking a player who doesn’t score as often as Jackson does. In this case, you decide to bet on Mark Andrews with the Ravens at +250. If you bet $100 on Andrews and he finds the end zone in the game, you would get $350 returned to you. Your original $100 bet is refunded and the sportsbook would give you $250 in profit for your winning bet.

If you’re unsure about potential payouts for certain betting odds, try out Odds Shark’s odds calculator to do the math for you and show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.