The New Mexico basketball team doesn’t play on television very often, and to viewers on the East Coast, they might as well play on the moon. The Lobos also have no victories over high-profile opponents, so it was natural to wonder what they had done to merit inclusion in the AP Top 25 poll last week.
But sports bettors? They know the score on the boys from Albuquerque.
New Mexico has quietly been a cover machine, entering this week having beaten the spread in 15 of its last 17 games against Division I opponents. According to data at TeamRankings.com, the Lobos have the fourth-best cover rate nationally—behind Minnesota, Richmond and South Carolina—and by far the best among teams in the Top 25. They’re also covering by an average of 6.5 points per game, which is the best in the country.
The Lobos entered the week having won five straight, a streak that included victories over 2023 Final Four participant San Diego State, Top 25 Utah State, and a pretty good Nevada team that had beaten New Mexico nine times in a row. They covered the spread in every one of them. They’ve won four straight Mountain West games by double-digits, something not seen in the ABQ since the 2011-12 campaign.
What’s going on here? It certainly helps that there’s some serious basketball DNA at work. The Lobos’ two leading scorers are Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen House—the former the son of the Kentucky great who played 12 seasons in the NBA, the latter the son of Arizona State all-time leading scorer Eddie House, who won a ring with the 2008 Boston Celtics. (Mike Bibby is his uncle, for good measure.) And the head coach is Richard Pitino, son of two-time NCAA tournament champion Rick.
Are there reasons to doubt the Lobos? Sure. Their best non-conference win is over Cal-Irvine (No. 76 in the NCAA’s NET rankings) and they have a loss to UNLV (No. 98). Who knows if any of this will translate into March? But New Mexico has already faced a rugged Mountain West slate to this point, and there’s no reason to believe it can’t be a reliable cover option for the remainder of the regular season—which, to sports bettors, is of course what matters most.
And with that, here are some notable sports betting winners and losers from the season’s past few weeks.
Winners
The Tar Heels are just relentless right now, entering the week having won 10 straight and covering in nine of those games. They’ve had just one single-digit game over that span, during which their average margin of victory has been 18.3 points. Guard RJ Davis is scoring at a ferocious pace. Good luck this weekend in the Smith Center, Duke.
Talk about a bad beat—Iowa State beats Kansas by four in Ames, but the Cyclones don’t cover because they close as a 4.5-point favorite over the mighty Jayhawks. It was a rare cover for Kansas, an underdog for the first time all season. But that can’t diminish what we’ve seen lately from the Cyclones, who entered the week having won five of six and covering in four of those games.
Alabama: Welcome back to the Top 25, Alabama. The Crimson Tide played one of the nation’s toughest non-conference schedules and took it on the chin. But they’ve rallied in SEC play, entering the week having won eight of nine and covering in five of six. A home victory over Auburn, which had won 11 in a row, was a statement.
Losers
In two weeks the Tigers plummeted from No. 10 in the country to out of the Top 25, thanks to devastating back-to-back-to-back losses to lesser lights South Florida, Tulane and UAB. They’ve also covered just once in their past nine games. Memphis blew that 20-home lead at home to USF, and hasn’t been the same since.
With Memphis out of the Top 25, Tennessee now assumes the mantle of Worst Cover Rate Among Ranked Teams. Make no mistake, this is a really good team that entering the week had won four straight and 10 of 11. But against the spread, it’s Rocky Bottom. The Vols had failed to cover in 10 of their last 16—with a seven-point sleepwalk at 13.5-point underdog Vanderbilt as Exhibit A.
The Sooners started the season 10-0, and have gone 5-5 since. They entered this week on a two-game losing streak, dropping both games at home. Oklahoma has covered in just three of its last 10, and looks for all the world like a team that’s getting beaten down by the unrelenting rigors of Big 12 play.
Upset Alert
Some games involving Top 25 teams to watch this week as potential point-spread upsets:
While the Cornhuskers aren’t exactly an upper-echelon Big 10 team, they’ve given opponents fits in Lincoln, where they’ve knocked off Northwestern, Michigan State and Purdue. Wisconsin meanwhile has been winning but had covered just one of its last five entering the week, and could be caught looking ahead to a massive home showdown against the Boilermakers on Sunday.
The No. 1 team in America, in Madison Square Garden, against Rick Pitino?Yes, please. The Johnnies snapped a three-game skid with a blowout of Villanova, and are 6-4 against the spread at home. UConn has covered in five of its last seven, but is 2-3 against the spread in true road games.
After winning 11 straight, Auburn entered the week on a two-game losing streak, failing to cover in either game. The Rebels meanwhile have won and covered two straight to pull out of a rough patch, and have already won once this season as a home underdog.
Player Prop Watch
Some players on Top 25 teams to watch for potential prop bets, should they be made available:
- Zack Edey, Purdue center: Entered the week with averages of 23.0 points and 11.4 rebounds per game, having posted double-doubles in five consecutive contests.
- Hunter Dickinson, Kansas center: Entered the week with averages of 18.9 points and 11.3 rebounds per game, having scored 19 or more points in seven of his last eight contests.
- R.J. Davis, North Carolina guard: Through Monday had a scoring average of 21.2 points, having scored 20 or more in four of his past five outings.
- Kyle Filipowski, Duke center: Entered the week with averages of 17.7 points and 8.7 rebounds per game, with double-doubles in three of his past five outings.
- Dalton Knecht, Tennessee guard: Entered the week with an average of 19.5 points per game, having scored 28, 36, 39, 25 and 32 points over his past five contests.
- Antonio Reeves, Kentucky guard: Entered the week with averages of 19.5 points and 4.4 rebounds per game, having scored 20 or more points in four of his past five outings.
- Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois guard: Entered the week with an average of 19.9 points per game, having scored 16, 12 and 12 in his first three contests back from suspension.
Top 25 Pick 3
North Carolina to cover against Duke:
As far as covering the spread goes, UNC and Duke are headed in opposite directions. The Blue Devils entered the week having failed to cover in four straight, including an inexcusable home loss to 12.5-point underdog Pittsburgh, and a home game against 7.5-point dog Clemson where they were bailed out by a late whistle. It’s going to be hard to trust this team in the Dean Dome.
Houston to win outright at Kansas:
Could the Jayhawks be an underdog—at home? That may be the case against Houston, which rallied from back-to-back Big 12 losses to win four straight entering the week. The Cougars are the No. 1 defensive team in the nation, holding opponents to an average of 51.9 points. That style will travel well to Kansas, which entered the week having dropped three of six.
Cincinnati to cover at Texas Tech:
The Bearcats are hanging on by their fingernails during their inaugural Big 12 season, entering the week having lost four of six games overall. But they’ve been competitive in most of those outings, having covered in four of their last five—including at Baylor and at Kansas. Expect a grinder against a Texas Tech team that’s just 6-5 against the spread at home.
