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Boxing: Fury vs Wilder 3 Odds and Prediction

Fury Wilder 3 Betting Odds

After a remarkable performance by Tyson “Gypsy King” Fury in his rematch against Deontay “Bronze Bomber” Wilder on February 22, a trilogy fight is on the horizon. The two heavyweights were scheduled to enter the ring once again at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas on July 18 but with the COVID-19 pandemic, the fight has been postponed until likely October at the earliest. This will also push back a potential bout with Anthony Joshua to crown an undisputed champion.

Fury and Wilder fought to a split draw in their first encounter with the Gypsy King outboxing the Bronze Bomber for the majority of the fight but getting dropped twice. It was a completely different scenario in the rematch with the Brit, Fury, putting it on the American, Wilder, stopping him in the seventh round.

After losing the belt, Wilder enacted his rematch clause, which set up the trilogy fight between these great heavyweights. Although the Gypsy King was an underdog in the first two fights, he is a -240 favorite at BetOnline for the trilogy fight with the Bronze Bomber coming back at +200.

I’m not surprised we are getting the trilogy fight, although many were begging and hoping for an immediate mega-fight between Fury and Joshua to crown the first undisputed heavyweight champ since Lennox Lewis in 2000.

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Odds Analysis

Fury was favored for about 14 months ahead of the rematch with Wilder but the odds flipped about a week before that second encounter and the heavy hitter from Alabama became the favorite. Unfortunately for all those backers who flipped the line, the Brit walked through Wilder and cashed in as an underdog.

As one-sided as that second fight was, the odds in Fury’s favor aren’t astronomical and that’s because Wilder still has that right hand that will shut anyone’s lights out if it lands. The Gypsy King employed two different strategies in the two matches, using a more conservative point-fighting style in the first and an all-out onslaught that led to a knockout in the second.

Fury vs Wilder 2

There were many rumors swirling ahead of the rematch. The 20 pounds that each fighter added was perceived to be advantageous to Wilder’s power and a hindrance to Fury’s footwork and movements. Additionally, there was talk that the Bronze Bomber was battling the flu and the Gypsy King had a significant ankle injury.

Rumors aside, when the bell rang for Round 1, it was clear that Fury was going to do what he’d said he was going to do and that was get in Wilder’s face and score the knockout. The Brit darted at the American, closing space and stalking him. He did absorb a heavy right hand late in the round but for the remainder of the fight, Fury maintained this strategy, suffocating Wilder, crowding him, dirty-boxing in the clinch and making Wilder carry his weight. Eventually, the Bronze Bomber’s corner threw in the towel in the seventh round after he had been battered, bruised and dropped several times.

How Will the Trilogy Play Out?

Clearly, Fury figured out something about Wilder that was reflected in his approach in the rematch – close the distance, which should take the power out of Wilder’s hands, and try to tire him out. It was a dangerous strategy, especially early in the fight, since closing the distance could have put him in the line of fire for that devastating knockout power. But you could see the Bronze Bomber slowing as early as the second round, and surely the cut to his left ear was bothersome.

A full training camp for Wilder to work on circling to his right away from Fury and firing his jab more often to maintain distance may change the look of this matchup for the third fight. That said, a point-fighting style is not Wilder’s strong suit and I can’t see a way that he could win on the judges’ scorecards.

In my opinion, the only way there will be a different outcome the third time around is if Wilder storms out of the gate at the start of the fight and lets his hands fly – knock out or be knocked out. If that were the case, exchanging hands may give the edge to the American as he has devastating power, but Fury may not be dumb enough to stand in the pocket in that situation.

Prediction: Tyson Fury (-240) via knockout

Deontay Wilder vs Tyson Fury Betting Odds
Deontay Wilder+200
Tyson Fury-240

Odds as of March 25 at BetOnline