With our outright wagers placed, we now turn our attention to the prop market for our expert selections for the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open. It’s always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2022 Farmers Insurance Open prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
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Last week at the American Express, we were mere moments away from a fantastic tournament. While cashing in on a +20000 ticket via Hudson Swafford’s victory, Harold Varner III’s back-nine collapse was lost in all the joy and jubilation. At one point only one stroke off the lead, the East Carolina product made a costly triple bogey and subsequent mistakes to miss out on a nice top-10 ticket. For the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open, I believe there may be some unique angles for our prop bets to cash.
At BetOnline Sportsbook, tournament favorite Jon Rahm is -140 to finish inside the top 10. According to our odds calculator, this implies a 58.33 percent chance he will do so this week. Needing to lay $140 to profit $100, we will instead search further down the Farmers Insurance Open betting board in search of some perceived value.
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2022 Farmers Insurance Open: What To Look For
With big names often coming through at the Farmers Insurance Open, the top-10 and derivative market is a nice way to supplement the outright card. While the best in the world have claimed victory here, there are a number of top-10 players who come into this week with numerous question marks surrounding them.
First, there is Dustin Johnson, whom we have not seen since the CJ Cup @ Summit, his lone start of the 2021-22 season. Before then, he put together a historic Ryder Cup effort, collecting five points for the U.S. team by playing and winning every session. Since then having enjoyed a few birthday parties and a ski trip to Aspen, Colorado, Johnson’s carefree attitude presents many unknowns when discussing his offseason regimen.
The former world No. 1 is not the only player whose form is very much a hidden obstacle to hurdle at the Farmers Insurance Open. There is also Bryson DeChambeau, last seen at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. While he was expected to play in the Sony Open, the 28-year-old eventually withdrew from the tournament beforehand due to a nagging wrist injury.
It will be interesting to see how DeChambeau handles Torrey Pines as he held the solo lead on the back nine in last summer’s U.S. Open. But the world No. 9 went on to a costly quadruple-bogey eight on the par-4 17th to ruin any hopes of successfully defending his lone major championship.
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Lastly, there is Jordan Spieth, who has been playing quite poorly ever since he became a new father. However, this week at Torrey Pines should bring back some memories as it remains his last missed cut on the PGA Tour.
Currently possessing the longest made cut streak among his counterparts, after missing the weekend in last year’s Farmers Insurance Open, the three-time major champion surprised at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, playing himself into the final group on Sunday alongside Xander Schauffele.
Although the Texan’s ball-striking has been poor for the majority of the 2021-22 season, he could take a page out of Patrick Reed’s book and get up and down from everywhere on the course.
Farmers Insurance Open Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations
Jhonattan Vegas (+700 To Finish Inside The Top 10)
We went to battle with Vegas last week at the American Express and while it did not work out for us, I believe he is very close to a memorable result. The Venezuelan was contending with some regularity in 2021, finishing runner-up at the Puerto Rico Open, the Palmetto Championship and the 3M Open while collecting numerous top-10 and top-20 results.
The 37-year-old also posted a T-14 at the CJ Cup @ Summit, T-26 at the HPE Houston Open and T-12 at the RSM Classic. The consistency he has displayed over the last 12 months is extremely underrated and he now arrives to the Farmers Insurance Open for the 12th time in his career.
On a course where driving is at a premium, Vegas found success in his first Farmers Insurance Open, finishing in a tie for third in 2011. Since then, he has added two additional top-20 results and two more top-30 finishes. With his game suiting Torrey Pines so well, Vegas to finish inside the top 10 just makes sense for our first 2022 Farmers Insurance Open prop bet.
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Charley Hoffman (+800 To Finish Inside The Top 10)
The San Diego native has been scheduled to play a couple of times in 2022 but withdrew pre-tournament for unknown reasons. While this might cause a bit of hesitancy, the 45-year-old has been active on social media, thus confirming he has been practicing and playing. It makes sense his first start of 2022 is the Farmers Insurance Open, which holds a special place in his heart.
This will be his 20th go at Torrey Pines in his career. When a player tees it up that often at a venue, there are bound to be a mix of poor and great results. With three top-10 finishes and four additional top-40 finishes, Hoffman has proven that when his game is clicking, he can contend with the best players in the world.
While the 2021-22 season began bleakly, the consistency with which he has been playing should be worth something. Collecting top-30 finishes at the Fortinet Championship and the Zozo Championship, the world No. 81 also made the cut in three additional outings, making his total 5-for-6. Striking his irons adequately and performing well from tee to green, Hoffman’s familiarity with Torrey Pines makes him a threat to finish inside the top 10 at the Farmers Insurance Open.
Carlos Ortiz (+900 To Finish Inside The Top 10)
It has been an inauspicious start to the 2021-22 PGA Tour season for Carlos Ortiz. Enjoying a nice 2020 super season, the Mexican participated in the Olympic Games and also collected his first victory at Memorial Park, holding off the likes of Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama and Brooks Koepka. While the 30-year-old has been unable to continue this success, it will eventually come to fruition.
There could be no better place than this week at Torrey Pines as this will be Ortiz’s sixth start at the Farmers Insurance Open. He collected a T-11 finish in his first outing in 2015 and the world No. 62 was the 54-hole leader alongside Patrick Reed in last year’s event, thus validating his affinity for this property.
Eventually falling off the pace, Ortiz finished in a tie for 29th after struggling in the final round. Arriving this year with a bit of mixed form, he was last in contention at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba when he finished runner-up to Viktor Hovland in his home country. Definitely a boom-or-bust option, if Ortiz’s ball-striking cooperates, the short game has the potential to be the best in the field as it nearly was last year.
Patrick Rodgers (+900 To Finish Inside The Top 10)
If Ortiz is a boom-or-bust option, I am not entirely sure what Rodgers would be classified as. Making his seventh start in the Farmers Insurance Open, the Stanford standout has missed the cut four times while collecting two top-10 results. That is exactly what we are looking for in our prop bets this week as the potential to spike is ideal given the strength of the top of the field.
While he has remained winless and struggled in the final round when in contention, Rodgers has played himself into position a few times already in the 2021-22 season. Finishing in a tie for sixth at the Fortinet Championship and solo fourth place at the Bermuda Championship, the 29-year-old relied heavily on his short game in those solid outings.
He found some form with his iron play last week at the American Express and the potential for the entirety of his game to click is highest at Torrey Pines. That makes him a viable top-10 option who rounds out our 2022 Farmers Insurance Open prop bets.
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