With our outright wagers placed, we now turn to the prop market for our expert selections for the 2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions. It’s always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
From Max Homa at The Memorial and Louis Oosthuizen at the U.S. Open to Robert MacIntyre at The Open Championship and John Augenstein at the Fortinet Championship, there were plenty of memorable moments in 2021. We will look to ring in the new year with a winning week after a year in which a number of our picks in this space proved to be very kind to us. We cashed numerous long shots and plus-money prop bets and more of the same should be in store in 2022, beginning this week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
At Bovada, tournament favorite Justin Thomas is -160 to finish inside the top 10. According to our odds calculator, this implies a 61.54 percent chance for him to do so this week. Needing to lay $160 to profit $100, we will instead search further down the Sentry Tournament of Champions betting board in search of some perceived value.
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Sentry Tournament of Champions: What To Look For
At first glance, this appears to be your run-of-the-mill Sentry Tournament of Champions, but there are some caveats everyone should be aware of.
Both Viktor Hovland and Daniel Berger are in Hawaii now and without their golf clubs as they had to endure airlines misplacing their belongings. They have played the Plantation Course at Kapalua before, so they should have a good idea what to expect, but it is something worth noting.
The Plantation Course is not your typical course on the PGA Tour. Measuring just about 7,500 yards and featuring massive changes in elevation as one makes their way through the property, this Coore and Crenshaw design actually plays to a par 73. With only three par 3s on the property, this inherently makes those holes a bit less important and the scoring opportunities on the par 4s and par 5s paramount.
This should be something to keep in mind as 39 winners from last season are set to take it on. Rory McIlroy is the lone victor to forgo this week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions as he will get his season underway on the DP World Tour in a couple of weeks.
However, some of the best in the world will be present. Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas and company will look to begin their year in the grandest of fashion. Since this is such a tight field with competition a bit jumbled at the top of the oddsboard, it is a bit difficult to go searching too far down for some juicy wagers.
Because of this, we will have a nice mix of players who have a real chance to win and only one long shot of sorts featured in our Sentry Tournament of Champions prop bets. The winner has historically come from one of the top-10 players in the field and this year will likely be the same, but just in case there are a few surprises, it is always nice to feature some prop bets.
Sentry Tournament Of Champions Prop Bets & Best Bets
Bryson DeChambeau (+190 to finish inside the top 5)
He could easily win this week and appears to be flying under the radar, but DeChambeau is always a threat when he decides to tee it up. On paper, there probably is not a better course for the big-hitting U.S. Open champion as the Plantation Course at Kapalua features the widest fairways these players will see all year.
With the ability to cover corners and trouble off the tee unlike his playing competitors, the 28-year-old will be put at an advantage almost immediately. While his iron play dropped off in 2021 and his short game as a whole was not the most sparkling, I reckon he took some time to make some changes during the short offseason.
DeChambeau finished in a tie for seventh in last year’s Sentry Tournament of Champions and not surprisingly led the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. Five strokes out of the eventual playoff, the American likely would have had a real chance to claim victory had he been better on and around the green.
He decided to forgo the fall swing on the PGA Tour, but we did see him tee it up for the Hero World Challenge not too long ago. He held the 36-hole lead in the Bahamas before falling off the pace and eventually finishing in a tie for 11th, but there should be no rust and a top-five wager at this price is too good to pass up on in a field of 39 players.
Patrick Cantlay (+100 to finish inside the top 10)
DeChambeau was not the only player to completely skip the swing season this past fall – Patrick Cantlay did so as well. The reigning Player of the Year finished on a torrid pace, winning the BMW Championship at Caves Valley and the Tour Championship at East Lake. His play at Caves Valley is something that is clearly transferrable to a place like the Plantation Course at Kapalua.
Caves Valley, a Tom Fazio design on a massive piece of land, features extreme elevation changes much like the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Cantlay won the BMW Championship at 27 under, which is the type of scoring we should expect this week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions as players typically take advantage of the soft greens and generous landing areas.
A four-time winner on the PGA Tour last season, the 29-year-old is now entering the prime of his career with all the confidence in the world. Backed by a solid rookie Ryder Cup performance at Whistling Straits, it is not out of the realm of possibility for the Californian to continue this type of form into 2022. However, if he does fall just short, a top-10 wager at plus money appears sound and makes for my favorite Sentry Tournament of Champions prop bet.
Tony Finau (+140 to finish inside the top 10)
Tony Finau is a player I believe is in store for a massive 2022 after finally shedding the monkey off his back during last season’s FedExCup playoffs. Winning the Northern Trust over the likes of Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Cameron Smith has to give Finau a boatload of confidence as he embarks on this new year.
While the swing season was a bit forgettable, what wasn’t was his presence for the U.S Ryder Cup team at Whistling Straits. A strong player on the American side – there were not many who weren’t – the confidence was palpable when Finau was on the course.
Collecting only two top-50 results this swing season, Finau finally found some form when he captured the course record at his home course, Silverleaf, by carding a 59. The 32-year-old continued this stretch of play into the Hero World Challenge when he finished in a tie for seventh.
On paper, the Plantation Course at Kapalua should be tailor-made for Finau’s game, drawing parallels to courses such as Augusta National and Riviera Country Club, two venues where he has found success. He should find a similar result this week and thus makes his way into our Sentry Tournament of Champions prop bets.
Lucas Herbert (+110 to finish inside the top 20)
The furthest we’ll go down the oddsboard is to Australian Lucas Herbert. There is a ton to like about Herbert, perhaps not as well known as the other players mentioned above, especially at a course such as the Plantation Course where one can be inaccurate off the tee. A long hitter and a recent PGA Tour winner, he won his first title on the big stage at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
A winner at the Irish Open as well, the 26-year-old is extremely capable of competing with any type of field. This will be one of the stronger fields he faces in his young career, which is why I am a bit cautious about his prospects. Because of this, we will look to his top-20 odds as this is a field of only 39 men and all four rounds will be guaranteed.
He can be volatile, missing cuts with some sort of regularity, but four days of golf should give him a chance to make up for any mistakes. Plus-money odds for a top-20 finish on a player in the top 50 in the world aren’t too common, so I am comfortable locking in Herbert for our Sentry Tournament of Champions prop bets.