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2021 U.S. Open Prop Bets: Top Props For Torrey Pines

With our outright selections locked and loaded for the 121st U.S. Open, it is now time to turn our attention to the top finishing markets. As always with prop bets and especially for the U.S. Open, it is important to shop around at sportsbooks for the best lines as they can differ largely among U.S. Open betting sites.

Torrey Pines South will take center stage this week as 156 players attempt to etch their names into golf’s history book. They will have a tough act to follow as it was here in 2008 that a David vs Goliath story unfolded before our very eyes. In what was the last 18-hole playoff in U.S. Open history, Tiger Woods, on one leg no less, captured his 14th major championship over heavy underdog Rocco Mediate in a memorable Monday finish.

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Typically host to the Farmers Insurance Open every January, Torrey Pines will likely take on a different, albeit more difficult look for the U.S. Open. Landing areas, misses, layup spots and reads on the greens will deviate from that in January. The potential differences were outlined in our U.S. Open outright article, but being a major and all, it’s important to be reminded of these points.

A par 71, Torrey Pines South has the potential to play just short of 7,700 yards. As you can imagine, it will be a brute, as players have a number of factors going against them before even teeing off on Thursday. It takes a different type of player to win a U.S. Open. A grinder, a wily veteran, an unsuspecting young gun, they are all viable options for Torrey Pines, as the cream always rises to the top in our national championship.

U.S. Open Betting Props: What to Look For

As always, iron play takes precedent when it comes to my handicapping style. However, U.S. Opens throw a bit of a wrinkle into our traditional way of thinking. Driving distance has made its way to the top of the list in recent years and this championship should play out similarly to those of the past. Those two factors coupled with a strong scrambling ability is the simple version of the statistical profile of a U.S. Open champion.

In previous tournaments at Torrey Pines, driving accuracy has hardly been rewarded. It’s likely that it won’t be this week either, but a combination of power and precision is what we will be targeting. Obviously, that’s easy to say and harder to pinpoint, but there is a simplicity to wagering on the U.S. Open. Good players tend to win major championships – it’s not a groundbreaking theory, but one that needs to be reinforced before we get crazy with some wagers.

Below, I will outline for you four bets that I will be making in the finishing markets for the U.S. Open. While a bit longer in the outright markets, I will still sprinkle some pocket change on these players to be victorious as I fear missing out. Based on the latest U.S. Open Odds from Bovada, my favorite place selections are below.

U.S. Open Props & Best Bets: Our Recommendations

Louis Oosthuizen (+650 to Finish Inside the Top 5)

If you’re looking for someone not named Tony Finau to contend, but come up just short, Louis Oosthuizen may be your best option. The South African holds the distinct honor of having finished runner-up in every major championship, to which he added to in the PGA Championship last month. However, I think this is a different Oosthuizen than in years past as his entire bag appears to be cooperating coming into arguably his most successful championship.

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Oosthuizen finished a mere touchdown and two-point conversion behind DeChambeau in last year’s U.S. Open, but it was still good for a solo third. The year before he nabbed a top-10 finish at Pebble Beach and in 2015, he stormed Chambers Bay on Sunday, finishing one stroke shy of eventual champion Jordan Spieth. He arrives to Torrey Pines this year in some of the best form of his career, if not the best.

There has long been a stigma that Oosthuizen doesn’t care and would rather be lugging his tractor around his farm. I’m betting that Garrick Higgo’s recent victory lit a fire underneath Oosthuizen. He hasn’t missed a cut this calendar year and had three real opportunities to finish inside the top five, only converting one. I expect Oosthuizen to play a serious role in this championship in some capacity and as such he makes my list of best bets for the U.S. Open.

Scottie Scheffler (+750 to Finish Inside the Top 5)

Scheffler has shown inordinate ability to compete at big-time tournaments and I see this week going no differently. Coming off a third-place finish at the Memorial Tournament, it is clear that Scheffler’s game is in a good spot heading into the U.S. Open. He will likely have an extra chip on his shoulder having missed last year’s championship due to a positive COVID-19 test.

In addition to his last start at Muirfield Village, all Scheffler has done is top-10 at the PGA Championship, finish runner-up in the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, and grab a top-five at the WGC Workday Championship at the Concession.

Throw in a couple top-20s at the Genesis Invitational and the Masters and it is clear that Scheffler is not afraid of the bright lights. Couple this with a top-five finish in last year’s PGA Championship a bit more north in San Francisco and Scheffler checks all the boxes at Torrey Pines.

I believe that this U.S. Open’s leaderboard could mirror that at TPC Harding Park last August. There you had big hitters like Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson and Tony Finau in contention. All should go well here at Torrey Pines, but lost in the shuffle of those big name was Scheffler, who had a serious chance to raise the Wannamaker if not for Morikawa’s heroics.

It’s a tough ask for Scheffler’s first professional victory to come as a major, but I see him getting into contention this week at the U.S. Open and a top-five wager may be more prudent.

Max Homa (+600 to Finish Inside the Top 10)

Homa was more than kind to us at the Memorial Tournament, finishing in a tie for sixth and easily cashing our top-10 wager. We’ll happily skip back to the well this week at the U.S. Open with the exact same selection. While he has played well in big PGA Tour events, Homa’s major championship history leaves a lot to be desired. He missed the cut at both the Masters and the PGA Championship last month at Kiawah Island, but I see Torrey Pines playing out differently for the California kid.

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Homa’s ball-striking is simply too good for this streak of poor major performances to continue. There is arguably no better spot for this skid to come to a halt than Torrey Pines, where he finished T-18 in January. Homa arguably had the best West Coast swing of anyone on the tour. In addition to his top-20 at the Farmers Insurance Open, Homa nabbed a top-10 at Pebble Beach before winning the Genesis Invitational in a playoff over Tony Finau.

For Homa to be a contender, he'll need to clean up his around-the-green play, which has taken a serious hit of late. However, I want to provide some hope as Homa gained strokes in said category in all three of his starts in California this season. If that proves to be true this week at Torrey Pines, then Homa should at least be able to make his way into the top 10.

Carlos Ortiz (+900 to Finish Inside the Top 10)

The longest selection of the bunch may arguably be my favorite. I am a sucker for long shots, especially at major championships, even though they may not necessarily warrant the attention. However, Ortiz has been trending in the right direction over his last couple of starts, highlighted by a T-16 at the Memorial.

When diving into the numbers from Muirfield Village, it was Ortiz, not Morikawa, and not Cantlay, who led the field in SG: Approach for the week. That should prove to be important this week as Torrey Pines has a way of rewarding strong iron play.

Couple that with his 2021 Farmers Insurance Open performance and Ortiz should come to Torrey Pines not only brimming with confidence, but potentially a bit peeved. At first glance, you see his name in a tie for 29th alongside Jason Kokrak and Louis Oosthuizen. But it was Ortiz who was tied for the lead at the 54-hole mark alongside Patrick Reed, before falling off the pace with a Sunday 78.

I think that plays into our hands, especially when considering Ortiz typically does his best work on poa annua greens. He’s been struggling with the putter of late, but a return to this green surface should do wonders for the 2020 Houston Open champion. All parts of his game are there; all it is going to take is a hot putting week and overcoming U.S. Open nerves. While that is a lot easier said than done, he is still worthy of one of our best bets.

If you’d like to learn more about how to bet on golf, Odds Shark’s tutorial has the golfing goods for all the different ways you can wager on the U.S. Open.