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2021 Memorial Tournament Prop Bets Preview & Analysis

With outright selections made, the next order of business is to look at the top finishing markets for the Memorial Tournament, so you can place some Memorial Tournament prop bets with your sportsbook of choice.

For the third time in less than 12 months, Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, will play host to a PGA Tour event. This week’s Memorial Tournament marks the first one since the golf course took on a new face. Known for being Jack Nicklaus’s golf home, the Golden Bear had his hands all over the recent renovations that transformed this property. Golfers will need to adjust to the changes quickly as those who don’t will run the risk of being left in the dust.

While players like Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth are favorites in the betting odds to win this weekend’s tournament, we take a look at prop bets that may cash at the Memorial as well.

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Memorial Tournament Prop Bets: What to Look For 

The Memorial has a way of awarding strong ball-strikers. This week will be no different as players will need to be able to split fairways with regularity. Coming into the greens, players will need to be precise, particularly from the 175- to 200-yard range as a vast number of approach shots will come from that distance. While chipping may take a back seat this week, bunker play will be weighted more heavily due to the number of them on the property.

Our Memorial Tournament prop bets and picks will focus on the top-five and top-10 markets as just one correct prediction should make for a profitable week. At Bovada, tournament favorite and defending champion Jon Rahm is +170 to finish inside the top five and -125 to finish inside the top 10. These odds imply a 37.04 percent probability for Rahm to finish inside the top five and a 55.56 percent probability for him to finish inside the top 10.

We were able to get two of our three wagers across the finish line at the Charles Schwab Challenge and hopefully the same is in store this week. Based on the latest PGA Memorial Tournament prop bets and odds, my favorite place selections are listed below.

The Memorial Tournament Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations

Hideki Matsuyama (+375 to finish inside the top five)

Some may have expected a major championship hangover from Matsuyama, but ever since his historic Masters victory, he’s actually been quite solid. At the AT&T Byron Nelson, he gained 5.8 strokes ball-striking, only to give most of it back around the greens. He then went to the Ocean Course and continued his strong play, gaining 10.3 strokes tee-to-green, only this time the putter let him down. His T-23 finish at the PGA Championship is a bit misleading as he was in the mix before a poor third round.

That’s essentially been the story of Matsuyama’s career. If the putter cooperates, it’s likely he will contend for that week’s tournament, and this week’s Memorial will be no different. He has a strong history at Muirfield Village and while I may still sprinkle a little on him outright, a top-five selection seems prudent in the Memorial Tournament prop betting markets.

En route to raising the trophy in 2014, Matsuyama defeated Kevin Na in a playoff. Ever since, he has not let his foot off the gas pedal. Along with his victory, Matsuyama boasts a top-five finish, a top-10 finish and a top-15 finish at the Memorial. In those four starts, he gained north of 7.5 strokes tee-to-green in each of them. He’s proven he doesn’t need the putter to be fully cooperative to compete at Muirfield Village as he was negative in SG: Putting during his 2014 victory.

Cameron Smith (+750 to finish inside the top five)

Outside of the first round, it was a week to forget for Smith at the PGA Championship. Coming in with all the momentum in the world, many fancied the Australian’s chances to contend on a links-style coastal track like the Ocean Course. That never came to fruition for the Zurich Classic champion and while he may still be reeling from a poor performance, I believe it’s a great time to buy in.

To say that he has a poor history at Muirfield Village would be an understatement. In five appearances at the Memorial Tournament, Smith has made it to the weekend only twice, neither of which turned into a top-60 finish. So, why now? What makes this year any different? Well, simply put, the quality of golf that Smith has been playing this season is far superior to years past.

Last fall at Sherwood Country Club, another Nicklaus design, Smith placed inside the top five before finishing runner-up in the 2020 Masters. At the Concession, he led on Saturday before a wild driver entered the fray and was eventually his downfall. At Harbour Town, a course that had Nicklaus influence, he finished inside the top 10. I’m willing to overlook his PGA Championship snafu and hope his long-term form of this 2020-21 season comes back to life. I like Smith finishing inside the top five as one of my Memorial Tournament prop bets of choice.

Rickie Fowler (+450 to finish inside the top 10)

Some of you may be scratching your head at this one, but just hold on. Fowler has flashed some serious form of late and it appears his swing changes have produced a consistent, reliable swing path. That should be a welcome sight for Fowler fans as he now comes to Muirfield Village, a course he feels right at home on.

Many will remember the missed putt on the 72nd hole of Fowler’s PGA Championship. If it had fallen, Fowler would have qualified for the 2022 Masters. Instead, he still has work to do. Not only is he not in the Masters field, but he’s not in the U.S. Open in about three weeks’ time. The California native’s motivation is at an all-time high as he surely does not want to miss the chance to play in front of a hometown crowd. Fowler will need to vault inside the top 60 in the official world golf rankings in order to do so, and while a victory may not be enough, there’s still a slim chance that it could be.

A top-10 finish at the PGA Championship was achieved through a combination of iron prowess and a return to exquisite putting. Oddly enough, those are two facets of the game that can contend at any golf course, especially Muirfield Village. In the 2012 Memorial, Fowler was paired with Tiger Woods in the final group before falling out of contention, and from 2017 to 2019, he finished T-2, T-8, T-14. It is clear he has a comfort level around this course and if there is one player who may be able to figure out the new, subtle nuances on the greens, it is indeed Fowler. Take him to finish inside the top 10 as one of your Memorial Tournament prop bets this week.

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Max Homa (+800 to finish inside the top 10)

For a player of Homa’s caliber, I believe that his odds are entirely way too long. He’s shown in the past that he’s a big game hunter, evident by his victories at the Wells Fargo Championship and the Genesis Invitational. While I understand that neither the current form nor the course history is where we want it to be, I still believe Homa is in play at the Memorial.

In three trips to Muirfield Village, he has only one made cut to his name, but we’ve seen this before from Homa. He is a totally different player now than he was two or three years ago, so he is the rare exception when it comes to course history. Just look at the Valspar Championship not too long ago, where Homa had never made the cut in three attempts. Homa went on to finish in a tie for sixth place and if not for a poor final round, a third PGA Tour victory was in reach.

And while Homa arrives in Dublin, Ohio, having missed the cut in four of his last five starts, I still have faith in his ball-striking. If not for an abysmal finish to his first round at the PGA Championship, he would have made the weekend and contended. Jim “Bones” McKay, who was his caddie for the week, was thoroughly impressed with his game, specifically his ball-striking, saying that Homa is a top-five to top-10 ball-striker in the game. Well, if that is true, it should certainly help him get back on track this week. At +800 to finish inside the top 10 in Memorial Tournament odds, I’m taking Homa as my final best bet of the week.