With our Wells Fargo Championship outright wagers placed, we now turn our attention to the prop market for our expert selections for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship. It is always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2022 Wells Fargo Championship prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
Chalk prevailed at the 2022 Mexico Open as world No. 2 Jon Rahm claimed his seventh PGA Tour victory as a heavy favorite. Holding off a litany of players that included PGA Tour rookie Brendan Wu and veteran Tony Finau, the Spaniard led wire to wire down at Vidanta Vallarta. Rahm will look to continue his strong play into the PGA Championship in a couple of weeks as it is likely we will not see him until play begins at Southern Hills Country Club.
It had been 11 months since Rahm’s last victory and while it was nice to see him raising a trophy, the field at the Mexico Open was lacking a bit of star power. The same can be said of the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship as the move from Quail Hollow Golf Club to TPC Potomac has not brought the same high standard of competition.
Rory McIlroy will make the trip to the Washington, D.C., area as he is set to defend his Wells Fargo Championship title. The four-time major champion appears to be in strong form as he finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler in his most recent showing at the Masters.
Our odds calculator gives McIlroy a 75 percent chance to finish inside the top 20 of the Wells Fargo Championship as he is listed at -300 at Bodog to do so. But needing to lay $300 to profit $100 at those odds, we will instead look to a few other prop bets for our expert selections for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship.
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2022 Wells Fargo Championship Betting Tips
There are numerous factors to consider when looking back to the 2017 and 2018 Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac for potential research nuggets. The first is the time of the year as those two tournaments took place during the first week of July in the sweltering heat of Washington, D.C. The second is the forecast, which appears to be quite rainy for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship.
Showers are expected throughout the week in Potomac, Maryland, and a cold front will be rolling in once players head into the second half of their tournaments. Cold, rainy conditions are likely to be present for the final 36 holes and while this may pose issues for some, a softer golf course will be a welcomed sight for the majority of the field.
TPC Potomac was described as a U.S. Open-caliber venue the last time it was seen on the PGA Tour. Kyle Stanley won in 2017 at 7 under and Francesco Molinari won the following year at 21 under. That number may be hard for competitors to get to in the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship, but I would not be surprised if the eventual winner reaches the mid-teens under par by the end of the week.
2022 Wells Fargo Championship Prop Bets
Fitzpatrick To Win Tournament Group A – C. Conners / R. McIlroy / T. Finau / T. Hatton (+425)
If the conditions are in fact firm and fast and extremely difficult, Fitzpatrick should be an ideal fit for TPC Potomac. While we believe he will be in contention to win the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship, this prop bet will serve as a safety net in case he falls just short as he remains winless on the PGA Tour.
He is super solid off the tee, possessing a nice blend of distance and accuracy, and of the bunch is clearly the steadiest. Fitzpatrick is in the midst of his best season on the PGA Tour and the same cannot be said of Tony Finau and Tyrrell Hatton. Both players have struggled and on a tight course like TPC Potomac, those struggles are likely to continue.
McIlroy is rightfully the favorite, but it has been nearly a month since we have seen the Masters runner-up. Conners is in the same boat as he rattled off consecutive strong starts culminating in a nice finish at Augusta National. While we have wagers on both Fitzpatrick and Conners, I give Fitzpatrick the slight edge between the two, especially at the better odds.
Rory McIlroy To Miss The Cut (+400)
Hype around McIlroy is at an all-time high after his stunning final round at the Masters at the beginning of April. The defending Wells Fargo champion will not be playing at Quail Hollow and TPC Potomac may not allow the Northern Irishman to display his strength off the tee. Because of this, and because his motivation level may be low, he could be in for a short trip to Washington, D.C.
Theoretically, if McIlroy had not won the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship, he would not be in the field this year. This spot on the calendar is a bit disruptive to his major championship preparation as it falls awkwardly between the Masters and the PGA Championship.
This is nothing new with McIlroy as we saw him miss the cut at the Valero Texas Open as the betting favorite. When his mind is elsewhere, he tends to play poorly and given that his wedge play has been a sore spot, I do not mind chancing he will do just that at +400.
Kramer Hickok To Finish Inside The Top 20 (+600)
TPC Potomac has not been on the PGA Tour since 2018, but a course that is drawing parallels is TPC River Highlands. That was the site of Hickok’s closest call on the big stage as he fell to Harris English last summer in an eight-hole playoff at the Travelers Championship. That came at another venue that requires accuracy off the tee, which is the backbone of the Texan’s golf game.
His recent results have not stacked up as we have regularly looked his way, but TPC Potomac should be a perfect slump buster. He missed his last three cuts, but two of those venues favored long hitters, which is not Hickok’s bread and butter. Before that, he was finding his stride at shorter, positional-based golf courses.
Hickok finished in a tie for 42nd at the Players Championship before rattling off quality results at the Valspar Championship and the Corales Punta Cana Championship. I look to those three starts as more predictive than his last three as the similarities in venues are glaring.
John Huh +600 To Finish Inside The Top 20 (+600)
The American has quietly put together a strong spring and continued his impressive play at the Mexico Open. He lost strokes on approach for the week but was able to gain ground on the field in every other aspect of his game. Huh’s iron play has generally looked strong, so a bounce-back performance should be in his near future.
He has made five of seven cuts, including a top-10 finish at the Honda Classic, another difficult venue where accuracy is rewarded. There may be some similarities between the two courses and with Sea Island, where Huh notched a top-20 finish to round out his fall.
As an added bonus, he participated in the Quicken Loans National in both 2017 and 2018. He missed the cut in his first time around the property before finishing outside the top 60 in the following year. While the results do not jump off the page, it is comforting to see Huh have some experience under his belt as many of his counterparts do not.
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