With our outright wagers placed, we now turn our attention to the prop market for our expert selections for the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. It is always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
TPC Southwind will be hosting the WGC-FedEx St. Jude for the third time. While it had been hosting some version of the St. Jude Classic since the late 1980s, Firestone Country Club and the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational were kicked to the curb. As such, TPC Southwind stepped up to the plate and has delivered two dramatic tournaments in its first two years as a World Golf Championship venue.
Another week on the PGA Tour has come and gone and with it was yet another successful tournament for our prop bets. After connecting on two large paydays at the 3M Open and the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the Wyndham Championship proved to be yet another fruitful venture as Russell Henley captured a top-10 finish for us and cashed a nice prop ticket.
This week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship presents a great opportunity to once again take advantage of market inefficiencies. With the biggest names in the game set to headline the field, it is no surprise to see Rory McIlroy and world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler headline the odds board. They have both factored in major championships and regular PGA Tour events this season and each are in search of yet another victory in 2022.
Scheffler and McIlroy are among those likely to raise the FedEx Cup trophy in a few weeks as are Cameron Smith and Sam Burns. Burns is especially interesting as he arrives with less-than-stellar form, but in the midst of a career season. Capturing three victories this season, Burns has become one of the best young Americans in the game. He finished runner-up in this tournament just a year ago as he fell to Abraham Ancer in a playoff after missing a short birdie opportunity.
McIlroy is the tournament favorite at Bovada and as such is listed at -190 to finish inside the top 20 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship as he arrives in solid form and should once again contend for a title on the PGA Tour. According to our odds calculator, this gives them a 65.6% chance to find either the first or second page of the leaderboard. Needing to lay $190 to profit $100, we will instead look elsewhere for value in the Wyndham Championship prop market.
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2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship: What To Look For:
This week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship had 125 players originally in the field and due to injury and personal reasons, that number has dropped to 121. That should be music to the ears of those who are currently on the bubble as the top 70 players will qualify for the BMW Championship in Wilmington, Delaware next week.
As of now, there are a few rookies on that bubble including Brandon Wu, Trey Mullinax and Taylor Moore. They will need to fend off some household names to make their way into the BMW Championship as major championship winners Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Justin Rose and Webb Simpson are on the outside looking in.
They are not the only ones as Rickie Fowler enters the week 125th in the FedEx Cup standings. There are 2,000 points awards to the winner of the FedEx St. Jude Championship and would propel Fowler into a position where he could qualify for the Tour Championship and thus receives exemptions into the invitational events and more importantly, all four major championships
2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship Prop Bets & Prop Bets
Corey Conners To Finish Inside The Top 20 (+220)
The Canadian was a selection of ours to finish inside the top 20 at the Wyndham Championship and unfortunately fell one stroke shy as he ultimately finished in a tie for 21st. Conners ranked inside the top 10 of each strokes gained tee to green, strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach en route to this finish.
He struggled with the putter in hand, but should be in store for a rebound effort as Bermuda grass has long been his putting surface of choice. Conners has finished inside the top 20 twice already this summer with those performances coming at the RBC Canadian Open and the Memorial Tournament.
There are plenty of similarities between TPC Southwind and Muirfield Village as the need to keep the ball in the fairway are prevalent at both. Not only that, but iron play tends to be the straw that stirs the drink at both venues and should allow Conners to contend for the FedEx St. Jude Championship title.
Harold Varner III To Finish Inside The Top 20 (+310)
Varner III missed the cut last week at Sedgefield Country Club but only by a single stroke. Needing three putts on his final hole, the North Carolina native should be able to rebound from the short trip down the road and in a big way in Memphis. He gained nearly one stroke off the tee and another half stroke on approach in only two rounds of play.
Before this, he had put together admirable starts at the RBC Canadian Open and RBC Heritage where he nearly came through for his first victory on the PGA Tour. Harbour Town Golf Links is another golf course where players often take less than driver off the tee to simply find the fairway, a method used around TPC Southwind.
This allows those to focus on their iron play where players have the tendency to separate themselves from the pack. Varner is a tremendous iron player and this strategy should be a fruitful one as he often plays his best golf on short golf courses like TPC Sawgrass where he finished in a tie for sixth earlier this year.
Sebastian Munoz To Finish Inside The Top 20 (+425)
The Colombian is playing for something more than the FedEx Cup Playoffs as he is currently the ninth ranked player for the International Team for next month’s Presidents Cup. In what would be his first appearance for his country, Munoz is in need of a strong final two tournaments of qualifying in order to play his way onto the squad without the need of a captain’s selection.
He could have not have picked two better venues for him to make his way up the standings as TPC Southwind should allow him to gain some qualifying points. He typically plays his best on Bermuda golf courses when looking at his top-five finish at TPC Craig Ranch from earlier this summer.
Not only that, but Munoz is as streaky as they come on the PGA Tour. It is not often that he has four straight tournaments of poor performance which leads me to believe his bounce back ability combined with the course fit will propel him inside the top 20 by the end of the week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Brendan Steele To Finish Inside The top 20 (+425)
Steele is extremely competent in two areas of his game, both off the tee and on approach. This is ideal at a venue such as TPC Southwind as some of the best ball strikers of this generation have found success around this par 70. While Steele is not up to that standard, he is not far behind as he has been terrific this summer.
He posted +0.62 strokes gained off the tee per round and +1.08 strokes gained approach per round in his last start at the Rocket Mortgage Classic before finishing in a tie for 30th. Leading up to this, he had performances of +1.98 strokes gained approach per round, +1.46 strokes gained approach per round and +1.40 strokes gained approach per round.
These efforts were in unison with equally impressive off the tee showings. This week will be Steele’s third appearance at TPC Southwind as he has missed the cut in his two prior outings. Yet those came nearly a decade ago when Steele was a completely different player and should hold no bearings on this week’s outcome.
Rickie Fowler To Finish Inside The top 20 (+1000)
It is officially crunch time for Fowler as he arrives in the FedEx Cup Playoffs as the last man in at No. 125. He is in need of a big week at TPC Southwind and if history tells us anything, it is that it may be possible despite his recent struggles.
Fowler finished T-15 here in his last appearance in 2020 and had a chance to win over the weekend before falling off the pace of Justin Thomas. Unlike the other selections, Fowler’s iron play has been poor for a prolonged period of time, but he has shown some signs of life on shorter golf courses.
He finished in a tie for 21st at TPC Potomac earlier this spring and even more far removed in a tie for third at The Summit Club in Las Vegas. Fowler has his moments of being close every tournament, now it is just about piecing them all together over the course of four rounds.
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